709
FXUS63 KARX 040530
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1230 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoke lingers through the day while gradually shifting to the
  east.

- Occasional rounds of light showers late in the week into early
  next week, but amounts and impacts look to be low.

- Seasonal temperatures for the rest of the week and into early
  next week with highs in the 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Today-Tonight: Smoke Gradually Clears

A ribbon of surface smoke has settled in early this morning
from west-central Wisconsin into north-central Iowa in the wake
of yesterday`s cold front passage. Visibilities within the smoke
band have fallen to between 3 and 5 miles with AQI readings
between 150 and 200 (unhealthy levels). This smoke plume
gradually shifts into southern Wisconsin by the afternoon on
weak north/northwesterly flow and conditions will gradually
improve for most locales during the day. Aside from some passing
high clouds and a few pockets of daytime cumulus, look for
plenty of sun today once the smoke clears, helping to keep highs
near seasonal norms despite the cooler airmass in place.


Late Week into Early Next Week: Seasonal Temps, Occasional Rain

Surface high pressure lingers for today and much of Thursday as
a low amplitude upper tropospheric shortwave ridge slides
through, keeping the risk for showers at bay. By Thursday
evening, a positively-tilted shortwave drops southward out of
Canada with weak 800-600-mb theta-e advection lifting northward
into the region to support scattered showers for late Thursday
night through Friday night. Moving into Saturday, a stronger
elongated closed upper tropospheric low drives southeastward out
of the Canadian Prairies and pivots over the region into early
next week. The lead cold front/occluded boundary will be a
focus for showers Saturday night into Sunday morning, with
additional showers attendant with the upper low later Sunday
into Monday.

The exact timing of these features is still being resolved by
the medium range guidance and therefore PoPs are smoothed in
space and time. Given that the deeper moisture is displaced to
the south, any rainfall impacts should be minimal in nature and
LREF mean QPF totals for this timeframe are around 1/2" or less.
The cooler northwesterly flow keeps temperatures near seasonal
values for this period.

A drier period is shaping up for the middle of next week as
temperatures rise back into the 80s, possibly nearing 90
degrees as hinted at by some ensemble members.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

MVFR conditions are expected within a corridor of surface smoke
overnight into the morning, with a few localized pockets of IFR
visibilities. Once the smoke clears from west to east during
the day, expect VFR conditions for the rest of the day. Winds
will be light from the north to northwest around 5 kts.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skow
AVIATION...Skow