428
FXUS63 KARX 081147
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
547 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow or snow mixed with rain today mainly for areas south of
  I-90 with light snow or no precipitation for areas to the
  north. Minor accumulations (mainly under 1") on cold, grassy
  surfaces. Low chance (5 to 30%) for 1" or more south of I-90.

- Light snow will be possible again tonight through Sunday
  evening with little to no accumulation expected. Roads could
  turn icy later tonight on untreated bridges, overpasses south
  of I-90.

- Cold weekend into early next week with highs in the 30s for
  Sunday and Monday. Blustery winds on Sunday will make wind
  chills in the single digits to teens on Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Today-Monday: Snow and Snow Mixed with Rain Possible, Colder
Temperatures!

An upper level shortwave trough and its associated surface low are
currently in the northern Plains. These will continue to shift
southeast during the day then begin to shift eastward later tonight.
Over the past few days, CAMS, GFS, and ECMWF have continued to shift
this system southward. The surface low is now forecasted to move
across north central Missouri, whereas a couple days ago this low
was forecasted to be over central Iowa. As a result, the greatest
forcing as also shifting south across central Iowa. Compared to a
few days ago, much of the precipitation chances across our northern
CWA (north of I-90) have greatly diminished. The area with the
greatest likelihood for increased forcing and thus the
potential for higher rates, is along our southern tier of
counties in northeast Iowa and potentially far southwestern
Wisconsin. This is seen in the RAP 700mb vorticity which shows
the greatest lift brushing our southern counties. Something to
keep in mind is that models continue to push the surface low
further south, which in turn shifts the greatest forcing even
more south. This means that our entire CWA may just see light
precipitation or none at all.

As far as precipitation type goes, while air temperatures are
forecasted to be in the low to mid 30s and some locations near 40
degrees, have gone ahead and lowered temperatures again for today as
northwest winds, cloudy skies, and continued cold air advection
should limit how warm we get today. If precipitation is occurring,
then this would also limit temperatures. Looking at some soundings
across the CWA, there is a very shallow warm layer (between 500 and
1000ft) which is probably not deep enough for full melting and
suggesting that snow would be the primary precipitation type or a
snow/rain mix. With the low shifting further south, temperatures
would also be more cool. All in all, most of the precipitation
should fall as snow or snow mixed with rain. While most of the
precipitation chances are along and south of I-90, locations to the
north of I-90 may see some flurries during the day or no snow at all
given the current trends. Despite precipitation likely being snow,
not much is expected for snow amounts. Up to an inch of snow may
accumulate on grassy surfaces and slightly more may be possible for
ridgetop locations and a low potential (5 to 30%) for at least 1"
for locations south of I-90.

Heading into tonight and Sunday morning, the region gets into
cyclonic flow and a few ripples move through allowing for a low
chance for flurries to occur tonight through Sunday morning. With
temperatures cooling off into the upper teens to low 20s, snow may
accumulate on bridges and overpasses with northwest winds present
and if snow continues for a prolonged period of time. Northwest
winds will also be quite blustery with sustained winds of 15 to 20
mph and gusts of 25 to 30 mph possible, which will make apparent
temperatures in the single digits to teens for Sunday morning. By
Sunday afternoon a upper level low moves down from Canada into the
western Great Lakes. This helps to increase low level lapse rates
and with cloud bases around 5kft, light snow will be possible and
some CAMS are already picking up on this (HRRR, RAP, NAMNEST).
Similar to tonight, if light snow continues for a prolonged
period of time or a slightly heavier burst of snow occurs,
bridges and overpasses may start to see some snow on them. This
is especially true since our high temperatures for Sunday are in
the low 30s. These flurries may linger early Sunday night
before the upper level low moves off to the east. Temperatures
for Sunday night will also be a little cooler than tonight, as
the GEFS and EPS continue to show 25th to 75th percentile
temperatures between -12 and -10C, resulting in low temperatures
in the mid teens to near 20 degrees. Dry conditions with highs
in the mid to upper 30s are expected for Monday.


Tuesday-Saturday: Mostly Dry with Seasonable Temperatures

Ensemble and deterministic guidance continues to favor broad ridging
with northwest aloft overhead through much of next week. From
Tuesday through Wednesday, the upper level jet is over the Upper
Midwest and as a result, both the GEFS and EPS have around half of
their members showing measurable precipitation occurring Tuesday
morning through Wednesday morning as a couple shortwaves move across
the upper level jet. The majority of precipitation chances are in
Wisconsin along and north of I-90. With the current forecasted
temperatures being below freezing at night (upper teens to low 20s
for Tuesday morning and upper 20s to low 30s for Wednesday morning)
and above freezing during the day (low to mid 40s) a light rain/snow
mix will be possible. By Thursday this jet moves further north and
we dry out for the rest of the week with temperatures increasing
into the weekend with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s by next
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 538 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

MVFR ceilings and snow remain the main concern for aviation
interest over the next 24 hours. Both RST/LSE have a 30-50%
chance for some snow, mainly this afternoon, while terminals to
the south are much more likely (up to 95%) to see a few hours
of light snow with occasional visibility drops to around 1 mile.
As the snow departs somewhat rapidly west to east this
afternoon/evening, conditions should become VFR. Looking beyond
the period, some sporadic flurries and snow showers could occur
east of the Mississippi during the day Sunday.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cecava
AVIATION...Ferguson