493
FXUS63 KARX 041629
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1130 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy with near record to record warmth today.

- Elevated fire weather conditions for Northeast Iowa and
  Southeast Minnesota this afternoon.

- Rain chances return for Sunday night through Monday night.

- Frost possible (up to 35%) in central Wisconsin Wednesday and
  Thursday mornings.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Breezy with near record to record warmth Today

Like Friday, southerly winds will bring very warm air into the
region today. 925 mb temperatures will range from 22 to 24C.
This will result in high temperatures climbing into the mid- to
upper 80s. There could even be a few lower 90s.

Soundings show that the temperatures between 850 and 800 mb will
gradually warm this afternoon. This limit the mixing to around
850 mb. West of the Mississippi River, the south winds will be
around 25 mph with gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Meanwhile, for western
Wisconsin, the sustained south winds around 15 mph and gusts
around 25 mph.

The combination of near record to record temperatures, southerly
winds gusting into the 30 to 40 mph range, and dry fuels will result
in elevated fire weather conditions for this afternoon across
northeast Iowa and southeast Minnesota.

Lowered afternoon dew points for this weekend

Warming between 850 and 800 mb this afternoon will limit our
mixing to 850 mb. This will result in our dew points likely
falling into the mid- and upper 50s this afternoon and lower to
mid-50s on Sunday. As typical, the NBM is too high with its
surface dew points, so populated the grids with the 10th NBM
percentile. This resulted in relative humidities in the 30s and
40s this afternoon and from the mid-20s to mid-40s on Sunday
afternoon.

Rain chances return from Sunday Afternoon through Monday Night

From Sunday afternoon through Monday Night, a slow moving cold
front will move slowly southeast through the area. There should
be enough convergence along the front for showers and maybe a
few storms (based on surface-based CAPES climbing up to 250
J/kg). It continues to look like the better 0-3 and 0-6 km shear
will remain in the wake of the front. As a result, still not
anticipating any organized severe weather at this time.

Near-normal temperatures return from Tuesday through the
remainder of the work week

In the wake of the front, near normal temperatures will return
from Tuesday into Thursday. High temperatures will be primarily
in the 60s and low temperatures will range from the mid-30s to
mid-40s. The LREF-NH is showing up to a 35% chance of areas of
frost in central Wisconsin on Wednesday morning and up to a 15%
chance of areas of frost in central Wisconsin on Thursday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

CIGS: SKC/SCT into Sunday morning. Increasing mid/high level clouds
Sun afternoon from the west ahead of a cold front/upper level
trough. Lower VFR cigs for Sunday night with some potential to dip
into MVFR.

WX/vsby: scattered to areas of shra/ts will fire along/ahead of the
aforementioned cold front for later Sun afternoon/night. Most of
this activity with shift east/south of the TAF sites overnight.
Locally enhanced gusts around any storm.

WINDS: tightening pressure gradient will make for breezy conditions
through the weekend. Southerly into Sunday, shifting north northwest
Sunday night with the passage of the cold front. It will be gusty
through the period, highest in the afternoons where mixing will
promote 25 to 35 kt gusts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

The combination of near record to record temperatures, southerly
winds gusting into the 30 to 40 mph range, and dry fuels will
result in elevated fire weather conditions for this afternoon
across northeast Iowa and southeast Minnesota.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

La Crosse Regional Airport had a high temperature of 90F today. This
was only the 5th time that La Crosse has been 90F or warmer in
October. The other occurrences were on October 6, 1963 (93F);
October 1, 1976 (92F); October 3, 1997 (91F); and October 1, 2023
(91F).

Here are daily record highs/warm lows for Saturday with the current
forecasted high and lows. (Record (Year) / Forecast)

October 4 Record Highs:
        La Crosse: 88 (2005)/ 89
        Rochester: 84 (2005)/ 87

October 4 Warm Record Lows:
        La Crosse: 72 (2005)/ 66
        Rochester: 71 (2005)/ 68

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION.....Rieck
FIRE WEATHER...Boyne
CLIMATE...Boyne