290
FXUS63 KARX 240838
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
338 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic showers and storms continue today (30-60%).
  Showers/storms that develop will again be efficient rain
  producers.

- Rounds of heavy rain expected through Friday. Flooding risk
  increases in areas where training storms are able to develop.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Periodic Showers and Storms Today

With a quasi-stationary boundary draped across northeast Iowa
into southwest Wisconsin, periodic showers and storms are
expected throughout the day, 30-60% for any given location. The
highest confidence in precipitation development is this
afternoon south of I-90 along the boundary.

Upwards of 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE is depicted in model soundings
for this afternoon primarily in the vicinity of the boundary
suggesting thunderstorm development is possible. Thunderstorm
potential decreases with northward extent though given shrinking
MUCAPE profiles. Showers and storms that do develop today will
again be efficient rainfall producers given warm cloud depths in
excess of 10kft and PWATs above the 99th percentile compared to
climatology. Areas that received several inches of rainfall
last night will be more susceptible to flash flooding today,
especially if training storms are able to develop.

Rounds of Heavy Rain Through Friday

The boundary shifts northward Wednesday into Thursday as an
upper level shortwave and surface low move northward into the
region before stalling again generally from southeast Minnesota
into south-central Wisconsin. Heavy rain is expected along this
boundary as the environment remains saturated and warm cloud
depths remain greater than 10kft. The 23.12z LREF continues to
suggest the heaviest rainfall will occur mainly along and north
of I-90 through Friday with a consistent 40-60% chance of 3+
inches of rainfall. Flood risk remains dependent on the location
of the boundary and developing showers/storms, with ensemble
guidance continuing to suggest higher end totals (4+ inches)
will be needed to see minor river flooding.

Longer stretches between bouts of rain are expected late Friday
into this weekend, but the upper level pattern remains active
into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 945 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Wavering frontal boundary makes for a challenging cig/pcpn forecast
for the TAF sites. Depending on where the front lays up/moves - and
interactions with a variety of smaller scale features - cigs could
drop into MVFR, or move back into VFR (and vice versa). The bulk of
the shra/ts continues to be favored south of I-90 by the CAMS for
the rest of tonight, potentially not returning until late Tue
night/Wed. However, confidence shaky on the TAF sites staying dry in
the near term and will have to monitor short term trends/radar
closely. Expect updates and revisions to the forecast.

Winds generally light, mostly northerly through the night time
hours, becoming more easterly moving into Tue night.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Falkinham
AVIATION...Rieck