484
FXUS63 KARX 031047
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
547 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions continue for today with highs in the low 80s.

- Periodic shower and storm chances return Thursday and Friday.
  Trending drier for the weekend.

- Temperatures warm up into the mid to upper 80s early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Today: Continued Dry and Slightly Warmer

The last day in our long string of pleasant and dry weather is here.
As the omega block responsible for our recent string of dry days
starts to break down, the associated surface high will gradually
drop south into the Great Lakes region today, keeping conditions
nice and dry across the area. Temperatures overall will be on the
warmer side of average in the low to mid 80s.

Thursday - Early Next Week: Shower/Storm Chances Return, Even Warmer

The dry pattern is set to come to an end as chances for rain finally
return late tonight into Thursday morning. As the surface high drops
to the south and the shortwave ridging collapses, west to southwest
flow aloft will come to prevail starting Thursday. The upper low on
the west side of the aforementioned omega block will drift north
into Western Ontario by Thursday morning with a weak surface low
taking shape in that general vicinity around the same time. A
trailing cold front will extend off to the south and west through
Minnesota and into the North Central Plains, overall making little
lateral progress through the day. However, deep moisture will be on
a massive upswing across the area as modestly strong and deep south
to southwesterly flow on the the back side of the surface high
across the eastern seaboard pulls rich Gulf moisture well north into
the Central Plains and Upper Midwest. Moisture will be able to pool
along and ahead of the front and with embedded shortwaves expected
to pass overhead, showers and storms are expected to develop in this
moisture rich air across the Upper Midwest. With pWats between 1.5-2
inches, any storms would be efficient rainfall producers and WPC has
included portions of the Driftless Region in a Marginal Risk for
both their Day 3 and Day 4 Excessive Rainfall Outlooks. Given the
recent dry period we`ve experienced, both our rivers and land should
be able to handle this rainfall with widespread impactful flooding
problems not expected.

Overall severe weather potential with this activity both Thursday
and Friday is low (less than 20%) but still bears some monitoring.
SE Minnesota, WC Wisconsin, and portions of NE Iowa are in a
Marginal Risk for severe weather on Thursday and this threat looks
to be mostly tied to the storms forming off of the cold front.
Overall instability looks pretty marginal overall, though some
pockets of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE could be possible by late Thursday
afternoon. The better instability looks to stay further to our west
and more closely aligned with the front which should still be to our
north and west. Hodographs will be pretty straight so splitting
storms look to be possible. Shear will be decent in the 20-30 kt
range so some marginally severe storms capable of damaging winds
could be possible with the strongest activity. Instability looks
much more prominent for Friday with 1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE
available by the afternoon. Overall support looks to be more
nebulous this day however with the now stationary front still to the
north. A shortwave trough is expected to move through the Upper
Midwest but mid-range models continue to back off on the timing of
this passage which means the lift and instability would be offset
from each other and would likely minimize the overall severe risk.
Even with the nebulous forcing, the ample instability will likely
warrant at least a Marginal risk for severe storms for Friday but if
trends change and the shortwave trough passes a little earlier, the
forecast could get a little more interesting.

The risk for showers may continue into the weekend depending on
what happens with the frontal boundary as global ensembles have
differing opinions on how that evolves; however, the forecast
is trending drier. There is widespread consensus that broad
ridging aloft will set up this weekend allowing for temperatures
to continue on their upward climb into the upper 80s this
weekend and even the lower 90s by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 542 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period with winds from
the S/SE at 5-10 kts, with some higher gusts to around 20 kts at
higher elevations west of the Mississippi River during the
afternoon. Showers may start to spread across areas west of the
Mississippi River after 06Z, but any aviation impacts are
expected to be limited.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Barendse
AVIATION...Skow