717
FXUS63 KARX 071042
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
542 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms slowly lift northeastward through the
  region through the day. Many locations east of the Mississippi
  River look to stay dry for much of the day.

- Rain becomes more widespread after sunset into the day on
  Monday. Overall rain amounts through Monday evening are
  expected to be around 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch with localized
  pockets of 1-2".

- Still trending warmer for the middle of the week, but the risk
  for storms makes the exact temperature forecast tough to pin
  down.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Today - Mon: Rain Chances and Warming Up

High clouds have started to stream in from the southwest as a
weak shortwave trough moves north into the Central Plains and
Midwest region. As this moves north, it brings a resurgence of
moisture, not that we were hurting for it across the region to
begin with. Deep moisture transport will continue through the
day with pwats by 00Z Monday in the 1.75-2+ inch range (in the
99.5 percentile to near max climatologically for the ENS) so
this will be a juicy airmass to work with. Overall forcing will
be not the greatest given the lack of any significant low level
jet and a weak frontal boundary well to our south. The shortwave
will have to do the heavy lifting forcing wise and since it
won`t pack much of a punch shear wise, we`re not expecting much
in the way of any severe threat with these showers and storms,
even though moisture and instability will be readily available.

An area of showers and storms is expected to develop and expand
north through the day today with the more significant batch of
rain and storms likely coming after sunset through Monday as
the shortwave moves overhead. Given the abundance of moisture,
WPC has included portions of our area in their excessive
rainfall outlooks for Sunday and Monday though both are largely
marginal across the area. Any lingering activity over a given
area may create some flooding problems but our rivers still have
plenty of room and our soils can likely still handle a decent
rainfall over the course of 2 days, even with the rainfall some
have seen the last couple days.

Tue - Thu: Hot Temperatures and Severe Weather Wed, Thu(?)

As the shortwave responsible for today/Monday`s rain moves off
to the northeast, a wave of warmth will take it`s place with
upper level ridging firmly established behind it. A wave of
anomalously high temps with the 850 mb thermal ridge will surge
northeast into the Upper Midwest Tuesday into Wednesday. Heating
in the lower levels and increased geopotential heights aloft
will allow for temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday to lift into
the 90s with highs Wednesday in the low to mid 90s areawide.
Unfortunately, with this spread of warm air also comes higher
dewpoints. Dew points Wednesday will likely be in the upper 60s
to mid 70s, especially across northeast Iowa. This will lead to
the potential for heat indices in the triple digits. Though the
good news is that both ambient temperatures and heat indices
have come down in recent forecasts for mid week so even though
it will be hot, it could certainly be hotter!

Not only do we have the heat to worry about, we have some
severe storm potential to contend with both Wednesday and
potentially Thursday. A troughing regime is expected to develop
out west earlier in the week and slide east over the course of a
couple days. At the surface a family of surface lows will
develop across the Dakotas with A cold front extending
south/southeast. Out ahead of this, a highly unstable warm
sector will develop amid the aforementioned upper 60s to mid 70s
dew points and 90+ degree temperatures. It`s a bit early to go
into the weeds on exact CAPE values but early indications are
that they could be pretty high (easily 3000+ SBCAPE).

The main limiting factor will be shear ahead of the frontal
boundary but these details can be ironed out in the coming days
for Wednesday. With the current forecast timing, it looks like
the bulk of the threat for Wednesday would be across the eastern
Dakotas and Minnesota with our area likely seeing activity
later in the event as it (likely) becomes more multicellular.
The idea then for Thursday is that the trough would continue to
slide east with the threat area following along. Depending on
the timing of the trough/front, this may leave our area a bit
too far west with the higher threat more focused on the Great
Lakes region. Time will tell but this will be something to
monitor over the coming days.

Friday - Next Weekend: Temperatures Level Off

A cold front moves through Thursday into Friday and this should
do wonders for our temperatures. While it`s still summer and it
will still be in the 70s and 80s for everyone, dew points will
fall as drier air works in behind the front. Temperatures
overall should be much more pleasant overall and previous
forecasts had for late week into the weekend. Broad upper level
troughing to our north will keep rain chances around for the end
of the long term forecast (even with the drier air) as
shortwave disturbances work through through the flow aloft. None
of these look to be particularly impactful with generally weak
forcing so will continue with the broad-brushed blended PoPs.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 540 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected through much of the day as high-
based showers and storms gradually spread northeastward--
though areas east of the Mississippi River will likely not see
any rain until after sunset. After sunset, MVFR to IFR ceilings
and more rain/storms are progged to spread northeastward across
the entire area. Winds increase from the southeast at 10-15 kts
by this afternoon and into tonight.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Barendse
AVIATION...Skow