125
FXUS63 KARX 241657
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1157 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry and cooler than normal through Memorial Day.

- Better chances for rain Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Mainly Dry And Cooler Through Memorial Day

Today will be very similar to yesterday as diurnal cumulus is
expected to develop by the late morning to early afternoon with
light northeast winds. High temperatures will be in the mid
60s.

The majority of the area will be dry today, but given various bits
of upper level shortwave energy embedded in our northwest flow aloft
and weak instability in the 800-700hPa layer, isolated showers may
again be on the docket for this afternoon, mainly north of I-94, as
suggested by the CAMs. Chances of this are low, generally less than
15% as indicated by the 24.00z HREF, given shallow moisture and
ample dry air below the cloud layer. Therefore, falling
precipitation may only be realized as virga.

An upper level trough swings through the area tonight, moving
eastward into Sunday and allowing the ridge building across the
central United States and surface high pressure sinking
southward out of Canada to take stronger hold over the area
Sunday and Monday. Skies should be mostly clear again tonight,
but less concerned with frost in areas towards central
Wisconsin. The 10th percentile of the 24.01z NBM indicates
temperatures should remain around 40F across the region tonight,
dropping to 35F in northern Taylor County. If these 10th
percentile values are realized, some patchy frost may be able to
develop in Taylor County. High pressure then dominates the
region Sunday and Monday with additional diurnal cumulus
developing.

Better Chances For Rain Tuesday Through Thursday

Upper level ridging and surface high pressure move eastward Monday
evening into Tuesday with a 500hPa trough swinging southward into
the Upper Midwest and a surface low moving south of the region.
PWATs increase during this time, generally 1-1.2 inches, with
moisture profiles more favorable for precipitation. The 24.18z EPS
trends the highest amounts south of our area, with this
southerly trend noted over the last 3 runs. The 24.18z GEFS also
suggests the highest amounts to our south, but does have some
higher probabilities over our area. Overall, probabilities of
measurable precipitation are around 40-50% Tuesday through
Thursday, highest south of I-90, but fall off quickly with
increasing amounts as probabilities of >= 0.1" are 10-20%.
Temperatures remain in the mid to upper 60s through about
Thursday where ensemble guidance suggests we may start to climb
back into the 70s, although a large spread in temperature values
is noted.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with sct to bkn
cumulus developing throughout the afternoon at both TAF sites. Winds
will generally be light at around 5 kts or less and remain from the
north to northeast. Cannot rule out some showers (15-30%
chance), especially given recent radar and satellite trends,
north of I-94 towards KMDZ this afternoon and evening with some
weak instability present.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Falkinham
AVIATION...Naylor