771
FXUS63 KARX 221811
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
111 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry through Friday.

- Overnight and early morning convection possible Friday-Sunday
  nights. Severe weather chances still look low.

- A Heat Advisory may be needed on Sunday in northeast Iowa.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Through Tonight
With the loss of diurnal heatin
Broken cumulus and stratocumulus clouds are expected through
this afternoon as some 850 mb moisture works it way south on the
backside of a departing 850 mb trough. With the loss of diurnal
heating this evening, skies will quickly clear.

High temperatures will be in the lower and mid-70s. It will be
just a bit warmer tonight than this morning with low
temperatures will range from the mid-40s to mid-50s. The
coldest temperatures will be central and north-central
Wisconsin.

Thursday through Friday

High pressure will provide dry weather through Friday. Even
though there is northwest flow aloft, there appears to be very
little smoke will be impacting the area though at least
Thursday. Toward the end of the latest HRRR run, it does appear
that elevated smoke concentrations are increasing across
Alberta, British Columbia, and Montana. This might be a hint
that we could start to see the elevated smoke concentrations
increasing on Friday in the northwest flow aloft. However, with
southerly flow near the surface, still not seeing any hints that
this smoke will become surface-based.

High temperatures will range from the mid-70s to lower 80s and
low temperatures will mainly be in the 50s and lower 60s.

Friday Night into Saturday

The models are continuing to show that a northern stream
shortwave trough will move east along the US/Canadian border.
As this occurs, a cold front will drop southward toward
Interstate 94. This may result in some isolated to scattered
showers and storms for areas along and north of Interstate 94.
There are even some solutions hinting that they may get as far
south of Interstate 90. Low temperatures will be in the lower
and mid-60s.

With rising 500 mb heights, this front should head back to the
north on Saturday. High temperatures will be mainly in the 80s
with heat indices ranging from the mid-80s to upper 90s. There
might be even a few lower 90s.

Saturday night into Sunday

The models continue to show that a mesoscale convective complex
will likely develop over the Northern Plains and then move
southeast through the Upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday
night and Sunday morning. Still plenty of uncertainty on the
track of this system. As far as severe weather, the 3-6 km shear
remains generally weak in the 15 to 25 knot range and mid-level
capping could limit the spatial extent of the severe weather
potential.

Low temperatures will range from the mid-60s to lower 70s on
Saturday night. High temperatures will likely range from the
mid-80s to lower 90s on Sunday. Heat indices look to be mainly
in the 90s. There maybe some around 100 in northeast Iowa.

Sunday night and Monday

The models continue to show that another mesoscale convective
complex will possibly move through the Upper Mississippi River
Valley on Sunday night through Monday. Like its predecessor,
there is much uncertainty on its track, and the shear looks
weak.

Low temperatures will range from the mid-60s to lower 70s on
Sunday night. High temperatures will likely range from the
mid-80s to lower 90s. Heat indices look to range from the
mid-80s to mid-90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Broken cumulus and stratocumulus clouds are expected through
this afternoon as some 850 mb moisture works it way south on the
backside of a departing 850 mb trough. With the loss of diurnal
heating this evening, skies will quickly clear.

Valley fog will likely develop in the Wisconsin River Valley
and in the Mississippi and Wisconsin tributaries overnight and
early Thursday morning.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION...Boyne