121
FXUS63 KARX 102134
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
434 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms continue this afternoon, moving eastward
  this evening. Fog is possible overnight into Monday morning.

- Showers/Storms are possible Monday (10-20%) and again Tuesday
  (15-30%)

- Lower rain probabilities and more seasonal temperatures by
  mid-week. Temperatures begin to warm up by the end of the
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

This Afternoon and Tonight

An MCV has been spinning northeastward across Iowa through much
of the day, which has made its way into the Upper Mississippi
River Valley. Forcing associated with this feature has sparked
some additional showers across the region this afternoon. The
environment has largely struggled to recover from this mornings
convection, with the highest instability (500-1500 J/kg)
residing over far southwestern Wisconsin westward into northeast
Iowa. As such, not expecting much of a lightning threat with
the bulk of the showers although can`t rule out a few rumbles of
thunder. Areas across northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin
are most poised to see storms develop this afternoon with
additional brief heavy rainfall on an already saturated area
(40-70%). As such, some flooding concern continues for areas in
northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin. Showers/storms are
expected to move eastward this evening.

As we head into the overnight hours, mid to upper level drying
should occur from the northwest allowing for a decrease in cloud
cover. Given the additional rainfall from today combined with
clearing skies, fog development appears favorable for much of
the area into Monday morning.

Showers and Storms Monday and Tuesday

Monday is expected to be a relatively mundane weather day apart
from the morning`s fog. Weak surface high pressure slides
southeastward, keeping the majority of our area dry through the
day. Across the Kansas/Missouri region, an MCV develops and
moves northward through the day, bringing low probabilities of
showers/storms to southwest Wisconsin and northeast Iowa
(10-20%). Confidence is not high regarding Monday`s
precipitation probabilities as the high pressure could result
in the showers/storms staying southeast. However, several
shortwave impulses also move through the region so the
additional forcing could aid in convective development. CAMs
have struggled to agree on a solution regarding the evolution of
possible convection on Monday, so have gone with the lower end
probabilities for the time being.

Predictability increases for Tuesday as global deterministic
models are in better agreement regarding an upper level trough
pivoting eastward across the Northern Plains and Great Lakes
with a surface boundary being dragged southeastward through the
region. These features appear to move through the bulk of our
area during the morning areas, limiting precipitation potential
to areas north of I- 90 until the afternoon where stronger
instability and increasing moisture could allow for development
towards central Wisconsin.

Drier and More Seasonable by Mid-Week

A zonal to slight ridging pattern develops in the wake of the
upper trough by mid week, bringing a pattern more favorable for
drier weather. Temperatures will be more seasonable Wednesday
behind the surface boundary, in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Temperatures look to increase to the mid to upper 80s by the end
of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Showers/storms from this morning have dissipated across the
region this afternoon. Additional showers have developed across
south-central Minnesota and north-central Iowa and are expected
to propagate eastward through the afternoon, although not
overly confident in the eventual evolution of them through our
region. Greater confidence in additional showers/storms
developing in eastern Iowa and moving into far southwestern
Wisconsin from 21z-00z.

Mist/Fog is expected to develop again tonight into Monday
morning given the ample moisture from the rainfall of the past
few days. MVFR/IFR visibilities are possible across the region
through the morning hours with the fog.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 433 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Additional showers/storms are possible (40-70%) over northeast
Iowa into southwest Wisconsin this afternoon. Rain amounts are
not expected to be as high as they were this morning (1-2"),
but the additional rain on already saturated soils results in
flooding concerns.

Rivers in the area did respond with the abundant rainfall this
morning with several reaching Action Stage. Most rivers are
expected to crest soon if they haven`t already, but additional
rainfall this afternoon could see river rises again.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for WIZ054-055-061.
MN...None.
IA...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ029-030.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Falkinham
AVIATION...Falkinham
HYDROLOGY...Falkinham