678
FNUS73 KAPX 061138
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Benzie Rd Fire...MIDNR
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
738 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0800 EDT on October 06.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Predominately southwest winds continue into this afternoon,
likely sustained a bit higher (7-12 mph) than yesterday, with occasional
gusts to around 20 mph at times. Subtle terrain features to the west
of the wildfire site may continue to result in localized erratic/swirly
winds. By mid-late afternoon, frontal passage is expected to shift winds out
of the northwest, which continue into tonight while diminishing.

A low chance for a rogue/isolated shower exists this morning/midday. Somewhat
higher chances mid-late afternoon, but wetting rains are expected to hold
off until after sunset into tonight. Low chances for an embedded thunderstorm
exist this afternoon/evening. Gusty and erratic outflow winds possible as a
result.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of rain
                    late in the afternoon. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of thunder...20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........54 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 6 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15 to 20 mph.
Mixing height.......700-2300 ft AGL increasing to 2900-4600 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (102.0-503.0) increasing to good
                    to excellent (502.0-898.0) in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........12  18  25  32  44  56  68  68  68  67
Weather cov.....                        CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                        RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........                                    SCH
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  20
Temp............66  68  70  72  74  76  76  76  76  73
RH..............73  70  68  66  62  56  54  54  54  59
20 ft wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W
20 ft wind spd..7   9   9   9   10  10  10  10  10  10
20 ft wind gust.12  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 0.8 1.7 2.3 2.9 3.9 4.5 4.6 4.4 3.4
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  W
Transp wind spd.15  15  17  17  17  18  20  20  17  15
Vrate kt-ft.....102 118 290 399 503 720 873 898 752 502
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  FR  GD  GD  EXL EXL EXL EXL GD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    early in the evening. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms in the evening and overnight.
                    Rain becoming likely after sunset.
Chance of thunder...23 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 47.
Max humidity........100 percent.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 7 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the evening and
                    overnight.
Transport winds.....Northwest 7 to 12 mph shifting to the north 7
                    to 13 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Mixing height.......900-1700 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (65.0-194.0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........70  74  77  78  80  82  84  86  88  86  84  82
Weather cov.....CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of thdr (%).20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  10  10  10  0
Temp............69  67  62  59  59  57  56  54  54  53  51  50
RH..............68  70  84  93  90  96  96  100 100 96  100 96
20 ft wind dir..NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 ft wind spd..8   8   8   3   3   3   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 ft wind gust.16  16  16  8   8   8   9   9   9   10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 1.2 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
Transp wind dir.W   NW  NW  N   N   NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.12  8   7   7   7   7   7   10  12  13  13  12
Vrate kt-ft.....194 99  65  80  72  85  91  136 154 166 166 151
Ventrate Cat....FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    sunny (10-20 percent). Rain early in the
                    morning.
Chance of thunder...2 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 61.
Min humidity........44 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming northwest 5 to 8 mph late
                    in the morning.
Transport winds.....North 9 to 17 mph.
Mixing height.......700-2100 ft AGL increasing to 5000-5300 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (65.0-444.0) increasing to
                    excellent (609.0) late in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........76     63     56     46     31     16
Weather cov.....DEFNTE
Weather type....RAIN   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............49     47     54     58     59     60
RH..............96     100    83     67     53     44
20 ft wind dir..N      N      NW     NW     NW     NW
20 ft wind spd..5      5      6      8      8      10
20 ft wind gust.10     10     13     16     16     17
Mix hgt (ft)....1300   700    1400   2800   4400   5300
Transport wind..N 12   N 9    N 13   NW 12  NW 14  NW 17
Vrate kt-ft.....145    65     179    323    609    901
Ventrate Cat....FAIR   POOR   FAIR   GOOD   EXNT   EXNT

$$
Forecaster...MJG
Requested by...Jeff Vasher
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2523014.0/APX
.DELDT 10/06/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL vasherj@michigan.gov