406
FNUS73 KAPX 061601
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Ermine Trail...MIDNR
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1201 PM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 EDT on August 07.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Winds turn south Thursday but remain light with occasional gusts
up to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Min humidities dip into the
mid 40s as skies remain mostly clear in the early afternoon hours
and temperatures rise into the 80s. Mixing heights will rise to
around 5 kft, and will allow some afternoon cumulus to form. The
environment will be ripe for a few of those to grow into showers,
where lightning and brief heavy rain will likely be seen. Stronger
storms will produce small hail and gusty winds. Chances for
showers continue into Friday.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of thunder...22 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........46 percent.
20-foot winds.......South winds around 6 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 9 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......3600-4800 ft AGL increasing to 5000-6100 ft AGL
                    late in the afternoon.
Ventilation index...Good to excellent (336.0-748.0).

TIME (EDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........42  43  44  47  49  52
Weather cov.....SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........        SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of thdr (%).10  10  10  10  10  20
Temp............80  82  84  85  86  85
RH..............60  55  49  48  48  51
20 ft wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S
20 ft wind spd..7   7   7   7   7   7
20 ft wind gust.10  10  13  14  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...3.6 4.8 5.8 6.1 5.8 5.0
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.9   10  12  13  13  13
Vrate kt-ft.....336 497 665 748 736 631
Ventrate Cat....GD  GD  EXL EXL EXL EXL

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening and
through the night.
Chance of thunder...23 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 62.
Max humidity........100 percent.
20-foot winds.......South winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......2200-3700 ft AGL decreasing to 400-1000 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (38.0-433.0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........51  50  47  49  51  53  54  56  57  60  64  67
Weather cov.....CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC SCH
Chc of thdr (%).20  20  10  10  10  10  10  10  20  20  20  20
Temp............84  83  80  77  73  69  68  66  65  64  63  63
RH..............53  55  58  67  79  90  93  97  97  100 100 100
20 ft wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 ft wind spd..6   6   6   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 ft wind gust.14  13  0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Mix hgt (kft)...3.7 2.2 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   SW  SW
Transp wind spd.12  10  9   9   9   9   9   8   8   8   8   8
Vrate kt-ft.....433 227 89  46  41  48  43  41  40  38  38  40
Ventrate Cat....GD  FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of showers
                    through the day. Chance of thunderstorms late
                    in the morning.
Chance of thunder...26 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........59 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 6 mph late
                    in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 17 mph.
Mixing height.......500-2300 ft AGL increasing to 2400-3100 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (40.0-494.0) increasing to good
                    (380.0) late in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........64  60  57  60  64  67  64  62  59  56  52  49
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of thdr (%).20  20  20  20  20  30  30  30  10  10  10  10
Temp............63  64  65  68  71  74  76  78  80  81  82  83
RH..............100 100 100 93  87  82  76  69  65  63  61  59
20 ft wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 ft wind spd..2   2   2   6   6   6   7   7   7   7   7   7
20 ft wind gust.0   0   0   0   0   10  12  14  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.9 3.1 3.1 2.8 2.4
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.8   9   10  13  14  16  17  17  17  17  17  16
Vrate kt-ft.....40  44  63  111 189 288 398 494 544 540 480 380
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD

$$
Forecaster...ELD
Requested by...Jeff Vasher
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2519419.0/APX
.DELDT 08/06/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL vasherj@michigan.gov