Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
295
FNUS73 KAPX 211215
FWSAPX
Spot Forecast for 4001 Piles...USFS
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
715 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0803 EST on November 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.
Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.
.DISCUSSION... Most precipitation has shifted well west of the prescribed
burn at this time, with drier conditions holding through the morning hours
and into the afternoon. Winds will be a bit shifty today... current
prevailing southerly flow will turn counterclockwise through the day,
eventually becoming more of a northeast flow after noon, and eventually,
northerly after 3pm. Wind speed will be persistent, but not overwhelming...
most of the day, looks like sustained flow of 5-10mph, perhaps gusting up
to 15-20mph at times. There will be a chance for some returning drizzle
and / or light rain showers later this afternoon, but overall, additional
liquid precip looks to hold 0.05" or less at the site. Temperatures today
hold steady in the upper 30s to near 40. Looking ahead, not a dry looking
forecast to contend with as rain showers become more frequent tonight,
carrying into Friday. North to north-northwest flow becomes dominant, and
even increases some, particularly on Friday... sustained ~10mph, with some
occasional 20-25mph gusts.
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
snow early in the morning. Slight chance of
rain showers late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 41.
Min humidity........70 percent.
20-foot winds.......South winds 5 to 7 mph shifting to the north
around 5 mph late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 13 mph shifting to the north around
9 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......600-2100 ft AGL increasing to 2500-3800 ft AGL
in the afternoon, then decreasing to 1500 ft
AGL late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (76.0-388.0).
TIME (EST) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........82 68 69 70 71 63 72 68 77 70
Weather cov..... SCH SCH
Weather type.... RW RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............33 34 35 37 39 39 40 40 40 38
RH..............89 89 89 79 76 73 70 70 70 79
20 ft wind dir..S S S S E E E NE NE NE
20 ft wind spd..6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6
20 ft wind gust.10 12 12 12 10 10 10 12 12 12
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 1.3 1.5 2.1 2.6 3.2 3.6 3.8 2.5 1.5
Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Transp wind dir.S S S S SE E E NE NE N
Transp wind spd.12 12 10 8 6 7 8 10 10 9
Vrate kt-ft.....78 145 155 167 151 221 290 388 261 140
Ventrate Cat....PR FR FR FR FR FR FR GD FR FR
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers in the evening, then chance of
rain showers overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 32.
Max humidity........100 percent.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Transport winds.....North 10 to 18 mph increasing to around 22 mph
early in the morning.
Mixing height.......700-1200 ft AGL.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (75.0-143.0).
TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........64 66 69 77 72 71 75 89 91 92 94 92
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............38 36 35 34 34 34 35 36 39 40 37 38
RH..............82 89 96 96 96 100 96 96 89 89 100 100
20 ft wind dir..N N N NW NW NW NW NW NW N N N
20 ft wind spd..6 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 9 9 9
20 ft wind gust.10 10 10 13 13 13 15 15 15 17 17 17
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2
Transp wind dir.N N N N N N N N N N N N
Transp wind spd.10 12 12 13 13 15 15 16 16 17 18 22
Vrate kt-ft.....120 97 75 86 96 114 117 118 118 127 130 143
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR FR FR
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain
showers in the morning.
Max temperature.....Around 45.
Min humidity........81 percent.
20-foot winds.......North winds 8 to 10 mph.
Transport winds.....North 21 to 28 mph.
Mixing height.......1000-2300 ft AGL.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Fair to excellent (223.0-645.0).
TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........89 87 84 82 79 82 86 89 87 85 83 85
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............38 39 40 42 44 45 45 45 45 45 44 44
RH..............100 89 89 90 87 84 84 83 83 81 82 83
20 ft wind dir..N N N N N N N N N N N N
20 ft wind spd..12 12 12 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 12
20 ft wind gust.22 22 22 23 23 23 22 22 22 21 21 21
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.2 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0
Haines index....2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Transp wind dir.N N N N N N N N N N N N
Transp wind spd.22 22 24 26 26 28 28 26 25 23 22 21
Vrate kt-ft.....223 264 463 562 604 645 644 611 570 517 459 400
Ventrate Cat....FR FR GD GD EXL EXL EXL EXL GD GD GD GD
$$
Forecaster...HAD
Requested by...Joseph Krupp
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2427079.1/APX
.DELDT 11/21/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL travis.a.wiltse@usda.gov,joseph.d.krupp@usda.gov,joeykrupp3@gmail.com