973
FNUS73 KAPX 241031
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Marzinski RX...USFS
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
631 AM EDT Sat May 24 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on May 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Rain-free conditions expected across the burn location
today through Memorial Day. Combination of well below normal
temperatures and sufficient low level moisture will keep relative
humidity values well elevated again today, with values likely well
above 60 percent at ignition time and readings only falling into the
upper 40s and lower 50s during the afternoon. Excellent rh
recovery tonight, with moisture mixing out a bit more aggressively
on Sunday...but still remaining well above critical levels.
Northwest winds today, perhaps a bit gusty at times later this
morning and afternoon...but expecting speeds to largely remaining
below critical levels. Light winds expected tonight, with again
marginally gusty northwest winds on Sunday. Challenging forecast
with regards to mixing heights today...owning to rather aggressive
Lake Michigan modification. Current trends support mixing heights
topping out between 3 and 4 kft this afternoon...although they
could be substantially lower if lake modification makes it further
inland then currently expected. Sub 1.0 kft mixing heights
expected tonight.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Chance of thunder...1 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 58.
Min humidity........49 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming northwest 5 to 6 mph late
                    in the morning.
Transport winds.....North 9 to 14 mph.
Mixing height.......400-2200 ft AGL increasing to 3100-3800 ft AGL
                    late in the morning.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (34.0-450.0).

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........40  43  32  21  19  8   8   5
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............51  53  53  54  56  57  57  58
RH..............71  64  64  61  55  53  51  49
20 ft wind dir..N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 ft wind spd..8   8   9   9   9   9   9   9
20 ft wind gust.12  12  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...2.2 3.1 3.4 3.5 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   NW  N   NW  N
Transp wind spd.13  14  13  13  13  14  12  14
Vrate kt-ft.....245 371 375 384 413 450 362 422
Ventrate Cat....FR  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent). Patchy frost
                    early in the morning.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 36.
Max humidity........100 percent.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph early in the
                    evening becoming light.
Transport winds.....North 5 to 14 mph.
Mixing height.......1700-3300 ft AGL decreasing to 300-400 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (14.0-394.0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........5   5   8   7   8   13  13  16  23  26  32  34
Weather cov.....                                            PTY
Weather type....                                            FST
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............57  56  56  51  47  44  43  42  40  39  38  38
RH..............51  53  55  66  76  82  86  86  89  96  92  92
20 ft wind dir..NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 ft wind spd..7   7   7   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 ft wind gust.14  14  14  8   8   8   3   3   3   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...3.3 2.7 1.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.14  13  10  6   6   5   5   6   5   6   5   6
Vrate kt-ft.....394 297 151 22  18  14  14  17  15  20  15  18
Ventrate Cat....GD  FR  FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). Patchy frost early in
                    the morning.
Chance of thunder...2 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 61.
Min humidity........48 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming northwest 5 to 6 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....North 5 to 9 mph increasing to 15 to 16 mph
                    late in the morning.
Mixing height.......300-1400 ft AGL increasing to 2400-3900 ft AGL
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (14.0-503.0) increasing to good
                    (488.0) late in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........34  38  28  19  17  17  15  14  13  12  12  11
Weather cov.....PTY PTY
Weather type....FST FST
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............37  38  41  45  52  55  57  58  59  60  61  61
RH..............100 96  93  82  66  59  55  53  51  49  48  48
20 ft wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 ft wind spd..3   3   3   6   6   6   9   9   9   10  10  10
20 ft wind gust.5   5   5   10  10  10  15  15  15  16  16  16
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.4 0.5 1.4 2.4 3.3 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.5
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.5   6   6   7   9   15  15  15  16  16  16  16
Vrate kt-ft.....14  18  26  85  195 430 477 503 547 551 536 488
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD

$$
Forecaster...MSB
Requested by...Nieland
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2514584.0/APX
.DELDT 05/24/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Jeff.Nieland@usda.gov