499
FNUS73 KAPX 061403
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Planning for Lasso Loop Rx...NPS
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1003 AM EDT Tue May 6 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on May 08.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...This is a very early look at the potential details and
these are subject to change. Mixing heights look to be low, very possibly
below the 1600 ft threshold. However, some guidance suggests mixing heights
climb to around 2000 feet primarily Thursday and Friday afternoon.
Humidity values have the potential to be lower than currently in forecast
due to very dry air aloft. However, a lake breeze is likely to form both
afternoons which supports higher humidity values in the afternoon.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 54.
Min humidity........41 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming northeast 5 to 7 mph late
                    in the morning.
Transport winds.....Northeast 14 to 16 mph.
Mixing height.......1100-2200 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Fair to good (152.0-337.0).

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........3   3   3   3   3   4   4   7   9   12
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............39  41  45  48  49  50  51  52  53  53
RH..............73  66  58  51  49  46  45  43  42  41
20 ft wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N   N
20 ft wind spd..5   6   6   6   9   9   9   9   9   9
20 ft wind gust.13  14  14  14  17  17  17  17  17  17
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.3
Transp wind dir.E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.14  14  15  15  15  16  16  16  16  15
Vrate kt-ft.....152 205 265 314 336 337 317 284 237 188
Ventrate Cat....FR  FR  FR  GD  GD  GD  GD  FR  FR  FR

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 38.
Max humidity........73 percent.
20-foot winds.......North winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Transport winds.....Northeast 5 to 14 mph.
Mixing height.......400-1000 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (17.0-142.0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........12  13  13  14  15  16  17  19  20  21  23  24
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............53  52  50  48  45  43  42  41  40  40  39  39
RH..............42  43  46  50  53  57  60  62  63  66  70  70
20 ft wind dir..N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   SE  SE  SE
20 ft wind spd..6   6   6   3   3   3   2   2   2   1   1   1
20 ft wind gust.15  15  15  10  10  10  7   7   7   3   3   3
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.14  13  12  10  10  10  10  10  9   8   6   5
Vrate kt-ft.....142 103 75  61  55  45  42  39  36  29  22  17
Ventrate Cat....FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 56.
Min humidity........44 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 6 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 5 mph shifting to the west 5
                    to 12 mph in the morning, then shifting to the
                    southwest around 12 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......400-1100 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor (14.0).

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........24  23  23  22  21  20  18  16  14  12  10  8
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............39  40  41  44  47  50  51  52  53  54  55  55
RH..............73  71  70  65  60  56  53  52  51  49  45  44
20 ft wind dir..S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 ft wind spd..1   1   1   2   2   2   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 ft wind gust.3   3   3   7   7   7   12  12  12  12  12  12
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8
Transp wind dir.NE  NW  W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.5   5   6   7   9   10  12  12  12  12  12  12
Vrate kt-ft.....14  15  20  36  62  90  103 107 105 101 93  84
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

$$
Forecaster...PBB
Requested by...Nathaniel Orsburn
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2513079.0/APX
.DELDT 05/05/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nathaniel_orsburn@nps.gov