582
FNUS53 KAPX 150649
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
249 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025

...Still humid today, with good chances for rain tonight...

.Discussion...Warm and relative humid conditions expected today.
Band of shower and thunderstorms expected to spread rapidly east
across the area tonight, bringing much needed and fairly widespread
rain to the area. Post-frontal low level drying is rather aggressive
on Friday, perhaps pushing some relative humidity values to near
critical levels by the afternoon across interior areas. Combine that
will gusty southwest winds that will easily exceeding critical
levels and could be looking at some elevated fire danger concerns
Friday afternoon. Moisture increases and shower chances return
Friday night into Saturday.

MIZ016-017-021>023-099-152145-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
249 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....77-82...except 60-65 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........45-50 percent.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent drier...except 30 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (681).
Mixing Height.......4400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...8 percent.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Numerous rain
                    showers and scattered thunderstorms after 2400.
Min Temperature.....55-60.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (91).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.07- 0.28 in.
Chance of Thunder...44 percent.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max Temperature.....79-84...except around 71 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........24-29 percent.
   24 HR Trend......20 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1836).
Mixing Height.......6700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in .
Chance of Thunder...12 percent.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-152145-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
249 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....76-81...except 53-58 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........47-52 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (436).
Mixing Height.......3000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...4 percent.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Rain showers and
                    scattered thunderstorms after 2400.
Min Temperature.....56-61.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (57).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.08- 0.38 in.
Chance of Thunder...44 percent.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max Temperature.....81-86...except 64-69 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer...except 11 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........24-29 percent.
   24 HR Trend......27 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1622).
Mixing Height.......6600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.07 in .
Chance of Thunder...12 percent.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-152145-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
249 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....79-84...except 52-57 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........44-49 percent.
   24 HR Trend......22 percent drier...except 32 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (715).
Mixing Height.......4600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...16 percent.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers until 2400. Scattered thunderstorms.
                    Rain showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....53-58.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 82-87 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (82).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.23- 0.40 in.
Chance of Thunder...43 percent.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....77-82...except 52-57 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 7 degrees cooler near the
                    coast.
Min Humidity........27-32 percent.
   24 HR Trend......19 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 32 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1957).
Mixing Height.......6200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph increasing to around 30
                    mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in .
Chance of Thunder...3 percent.


$$

MIZ031>033-152145-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
249 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....79-84...except 72-77 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer...except 6 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........44-49 percent.
   24 HR Trend......22 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (783).
Mixing Height.......4900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...16 percent.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers until 2400. Scattered thunderstorms.
                    Rain showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....53-58.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (71).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 18 mph shifting to the
                    southwest around 15 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.27- 0.44 in.
Chance of Thunder...44 percent.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....78-83...except 67-72 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........26-31 percent.
   24 HR Trend......20 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (2181).
Mixing Height.......6800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph increasing to around 30
                    mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in .
Chance of Thunder...3 percent.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-152145-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
249 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....77-82.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........47-52 percent.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (629).
Mixing Height.......4400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...9 percent.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Rain showers and
                    scattered thunderstorms after 2400.
Min Temperature.....57-62.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (73).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.11- 0.51 in.
Chance of Thunder...45 percent.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....79-84.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........24-29 percent.
   24 HR Trend......23 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (2144).
Mixing Height.......8000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .
Chance of Thunder...9 percent.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS AROUND 60. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS AROUND 60.
NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

MSB