Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
532
FNUS53 KAPX 060720
FWFAPX
Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
320 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
...Cold Frontal Passage Today...
.DISCUSSION...A cold front passes through northern Michigan today,
bringing myriad conditions across the region. Across northwest
lower, clouds will be on the increase, along with the chance for a
few showers through the day. the farther east one goes, the later
the rain showers build. Across northeast lower, there is a chance
for an afternoon thunderstorm or two. More widespread showers
build into tonight. For temperatures, we are looking at northwest
lower hovering a degree or two on either side of 70. Warmer
temperatures are anticipated est of US 131, with the warmest
temperatures (near 80) across northeast lower. RHs will remain
elevated, generally struggling to dip into the 40s. Ahead of the
front, breezy winds are in order, with the occasional 25mph+ gust
not out of the question. Wind direction will flip from southwest
to northwest in the wake of the frontal passage. As such,
anticipating a period of erratic winds over any given location
with the passage of the front. All in all, most areas will see a
somewhat lowered fire risk, though risk likely remains elevated
today over northeast lower due to the greatest overlap in breezy
conditions, warm temperatures... but RHs will remain elevated
enough to fend off full blown Red Flag conditions.
MIZ016-017-021>023-099-062030-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
320 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
rain until 1200, then chance of rain and slight
chance of thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....74-79...except 60-65 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......10 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........47-52 percent.
24 HR Trend......13 percent wetter...except 8 percent wetter
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph shifting to the
northwest in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (371).
Mixing Height.......2400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph shifting to the
northwest around 12 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.02- 0.15 in.
Chance of Thunder...15 percent.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Rain likely and
slight chance of thunderstorms until 2400, then
chance of rain.
Min Temperature.....44-49...except around 51 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......17 degrees cooler...except 11 degrees cooler
near the coast.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent...except 82-87 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......27 percent wetter...except 13 percent wetter
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
becoming light.
Vent Rate...........Poor (81).
Mixing Height.......1100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.03- 0.26 in.
Chance of Thunder...17 percent.
.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of rain
until 1200.
Max Temperature.....57-62.
24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........40-45 percent.
24 HR Trend......7 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1092).
Mixing Height.......5200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 9 mph increasing to around 21 mph
in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .
Chance of Thunder...1 percent.
$$
MIZ018-024-030-036-042-062030-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
320 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
rain until 1200Chance of rain after 1200.
Max Temperature.....76-81...except 63-68 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........49-54 percent.
24 HR Trend......21 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (696).
Mixing Height.......3900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.10 in .
Chance of Thunder...13 percent.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain likely and
slight chance of thunderstorms until 2400, then
rain.
Min Temperature.....45-50...except 52-57 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......14 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 83-88 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......27 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
up to 13 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (91).
Mixing Height.......1000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.07- 0.38 in.
Chance of Thunder...21 percent.
.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent).
Max Temperature.....60-65.
24 HR Trend......16 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........41-46 percent.
24 HR Trend......6 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1019).
Mixing Height.......5500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in .
Chance of Thunder...2 percent.
$$
MIZ020-025>027-062030-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
320 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of rain
until 1200, then rain likely and slight chance
of thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....70-75...except 59-64 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........54-59 percent.
24 HR Trend......24 percent wetter...except 13 percent wetter
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
northwest in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (319).
Mixing Height.......2300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph shifting to the
northwest around 12 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.23 in.
Chance of Thunder...17 percent.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
thunderstorms until 2400. Chance of rain.
Min Temperature.....44-49...except 52-57 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......16 degrees cooler...except 11 degrees cooler
near the coast.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent...except 84-89 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......22 percent wetter...except 16 percent wetter
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
up to 13 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (64).
Mixing Height.......800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.03- 0.19 in.
Chance of Thunder...18 percent.
.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Chance of rain
until 1200.
Max Temperature.....57-62.
24 HR Trend......12 degrees cooler...except 7 degrees cooler
near the coast.
Min Humidity........41-46 percent.
24 HR Trend......19 percent drier...except 11 percent drier
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (901).
Mixing Height.......4800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .
Chance of Thunder...2 percent.
$$
MIZ031>033-062030-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
320 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
rain until 1200, then chance of rain and slight
chance of thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....73-78...except 62-67 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........52-57 percent...except 65-70 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......21 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
west in the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Good (433).
Mixing Height.......3100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in .
Chance of Thunder...16 percent.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
and slight chance of thunderstorms until 2400,
then rain likely.
Min Temperature.....46-51.
24 HR Trend......16 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
24 HR Trend......17 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
up to 13 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (65).
Mixing Height.......800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.08- 0.25 in.
Chance of Thunder...21 percent.
.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of rain
until 1200.
Max Temperature.....58-63.
24 HR Trend......12 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........40-45 percent.
24 HR Trend......21 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (849).
Mixing Height.......4800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .
Chance of Thunder...2 percent.
$$
MIZ028-029-034-035-041-062030-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
320 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Slight chance of
rain until 1200Chance of rain and slight chance
of thunderstorms after 1200.
Max Temperature.....77-82.
24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........51-56 percent.
24 HR Trend......18 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (904).
Mixing Height.......4700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in .
Chance of Thunder...11 percent.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain and slight
chance of thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....47-52.
24 HR Trend......15 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
24 HR Trend......24 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (72).
Mixing Height.......900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.11- 0.45 in.
Chance of Thunder...23 percent.
.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....59-64.
24 HR Trend......17 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........40-45 percent.
24 HR Trend......9 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (964).
Mixing Height.......5200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.10 in .
Chance of Thunder...2 percent.
$$
.EXTENDED...
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
$$
HAD