Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
018
FNUS53 KAPX 120740
FWFAPX
Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
340 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026
...Rain chances build today...
.DISCUSSION...Precipication-free conditions expected early this
morning with rain chances building from west to east by mid-morning
through this afternoon. Increasingly gusty south-southeast winds
expected today, with gusts of 25-30 mph likely in spots this
afternoon. Antecedent dry airmass courtesy of departing high
pressure will lead to quick mixing processes (mixing heights may
spike to greater than 3kft) and improvements in ventilation, which
may permit quick depletion of surface moisture ahead of the
intruding system -- especially across northeast lower Michigan where
RHs may briefly dip into the upper 30 to near 40 percent range.
Lingering shower chances carry into Wednesday, especially over
northeast lower, before we trend much more seasonable/mild come
Thursday/Friday.
MIZ016-017-021>023-099-122015-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
340 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026
.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent) until 1200, then
cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of rain showers
until 1200, then rain showers.
Max Temperature.....54-59...except 47-52 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 6 degrees warmer near the
coast.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent.
24 HR Trend......13 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
up to 32 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (488).
Mixing Height.......2600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.04- 0.18 in.
Chance of Thunder...13 percent.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers
likely until 2400, then chance of rain showers.
Min Temperature.....35-40.
24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent.
24 HR Trend......21 percent wetter...except 11 percent wetter
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph shifting to the west
after midnight. Gusts up to 30 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (36).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 12 mph shifting to the west after
midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.09- 0.24 in.
Chance of Thunder...13 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
showers.
Max Temperature.....47-52...except 40-45 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........52-57 percent.
24 HR Trend......24 percent wetter...except 5 percent wetter
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 32 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (520).
Mixing Height.......2600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .
Chance of Thunder...4 percent.
$$
MIZ018-024-030-036-042-122015-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
340 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026
.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Widespread frost
until 1200. Rain showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....51-56...except 39-44 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent.
24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (538).
Mixing Height.......3000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.07- 0.18 in.
Chance of Thunder...9 percent.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Rain showers
likely until 2400, then slight chance of rain
showers.
Min Temperature.....38-43.
24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the
southwest after midnight. Gusts up to 30 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (41).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 15 mph shifting to the southwest
around 12 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.09- 0.21 in.
Chance of Thunder...12 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
showers.
Max Temperature.....47-52...except 37-42 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........57-62 percent.
24 HR Trend......24 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (417).
Mixing Height.......2200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .
Chance of Thunder...4 percent.
$$
MIZ020-025>027-122015-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
340 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026
.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
showers until 1200, then rain showers.
Max Temperature.....59-64...except 47-52 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer...except 14 degrees warmer
near the coast.
Min Humidity........51-56 percent.
24 HR Trend......24 percent wetter...except 16 percent wetter
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (336).
Mixing Height.......1600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.05- 0.15 in.
Chance of Thunder...16 percent.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Rain showers
likely and slight chance of thunderstorms until
2400, then chance of rain showers.
Min Temperature.....36-41.
24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 84-89 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......18 percent wetter...except 26 percent wetter
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph shifting to the west
after midnight. Gusts up to 30 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (48).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph shifting to the
northwest after midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.04- 0.18 in.
Chance of Thunder...15 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent) until 1200, then partly
sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of rain showers
until 1200.
Max Temperature.....47-52.
24 HR Trend......15 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........54-59 percent.
24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter...except 2 percent wetter
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 32 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (641).
Mixing Height.......2700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .
Chance of Thunder...2 percent.
$$
MIZ031>033-122015-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
340 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026
.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
showers until 1200, then rain showers.
Max Temperature.....61-66.
24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer...except 16 degrees warmer
near the coast.
Min Humidity........53-58 percent.
24 HR Trend......31 percent wetter...except 21 percent wetter
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (426).
Mixing Height.......1800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........Around 0.08 in .
Chance of Thunder...16 percent.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers
likely and slight chance of thunderstorms until
2400, then chance of rain showers.
Min Temperature.....37-42.
24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
24 HR Trend......18 percent wetter...except 11 percent wetter
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph shifting to the
west after midnight. Gusts up to 30 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (65).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph shifting to the
northwest after midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.04- 0.15 in.
Chance of Thunder...17 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent) until 1200, then partly
sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of rain showers
until 1200.
Max Temperature.....48-53.
24 HR Trend......9 degrees cooler...except 14 degrees cooler
near the coast.
Min Humidity........50-55 percent.
24 HR Trend......6 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 32 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (741).
Mixing Height.......3000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 21 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .
Chance of Thunder...2 percent.
$$
MIZ028-029-034-035-041-122015-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
340 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026
.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Widespread frost
until 1200. Slight chance of rain showers until
1200, then rain showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....54-59.
24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent.
24 HR Trend......21 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (451).
Mixing Height.......2500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.05- 0.12 in.
Chance of Thunder...13 percent.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Rain showers
likely and slight chance of thunderstorms until
2400, then chance of rain showers.
Min Temperature.....39-44.
24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent.
24 HR Trend......15 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph shifting to the west
after midnight. Gusts up to 30 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (52).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 15 mph shifting to the west around
12 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.07- 0.20 in.
Chance of Thunder...14 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent).
Max Temperature.....47-52.
24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........58-63 percent.
24 HR Trend......18 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (522).
Mixing Height.......2500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .
Chance of Thunder...4 percent.
$$
.EXTENDED...
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
HIGHS AROUND 70. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 50.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
$$
MJG