165
FNUS53 KAPX 021842
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
242 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

...Increasing Fire Danger into the Weekend...

.DISCUSSION... Anticipating increasingly favorable fire growth
conditions through this upcoming weekend as conditions turn
breezier with low RHs to accompany near-record to record high
temperatures well into the 80s. This will be a gradual ramp up
through the weekend. Friday sees most spots hold dry with highs in
the 80s and lighter winds, but there will be a very small chance
of an isolated shower or storm across the far northern reaches of
the lower peninsula... likely accompanied by minimal rainfall
(which may have consequences with any lightning strikes). Fire
growth conditions really take off over the weekend as temperatures
peak as high as the upper 80s with increasing southerly flow. The
day of most concern will be Sunday, as RHs hover near 30, but with
wind gusts as high as 30 mph and temperature well into the 80s,
certainly looks to be one of the more robust fire growth days seen
since Spring when you couple all of this with drying / decaying
vegetation.

MIZ016-017-021>023-099-030815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
242 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....53-58.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........74-79 percent.
   24 HR Trend......23 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 13 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (33).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....79-84...except 67-72 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer...except 4 degrees warmer near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........39-44 percent...except 52-57 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......18 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 13 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (524).
Mixing Height.......3700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...5 percent.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent).
Min Temperature.....56-61...except 63-68 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent.
   24 HR Trend......24 percent wetter...except 18 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Vent Rate...........Poor (17).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...14 percent.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....82-87...except 72-77 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........39-44 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1092).
Mixing Height.......5800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...14 percent.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-030815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
242 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....49-54.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........85-90 percent...except 67-72 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 13 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (31).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). Isolated rain showers
                    after 1200.
Max Temperature.....80-85...except 67-72 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........38-43 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter...except unchanged along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 13 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (576).
Mixing Height.......4400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in .
Chance of Thunder...2 percent.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Min Temperature.....53-58...except around 60 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter...except 4 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Vent Rate...........Poor (21).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .
Chance of Thunder...11 percent.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....82-87...except 70-75 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........40-45 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter...except 3 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (935).
Mixing Height.......5700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...5 percent.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-030815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
242 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Min Temperature.....52-57...except around 61 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......16 degrees warmer...except 9 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........74-79 percent...except 65-70 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......21 percent drier...except 15 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 13 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (31).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....80-85...except around 70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer...except 5 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........41-46 percent.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent wetter...except 26 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 13 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (636).
Mixing Height.......4200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...3 percent.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent).
Min Temperature.....56-61...except 64-69 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........88-93 percent...except 76-81 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......18 percent wetter...except 12 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Vent Rate...........Poor (35).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .
Chance of Thunder...10 percent.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....82-87...except 68-73 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........40-45 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1131).
Mixing Height.......5700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .
Chance of Thunder...8 percent.


$$

MIZ031>033-030815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
242 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Min Temperature.....52-57.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........74-79 percent...except 78-83 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......28 percent drier...except 1 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 13 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....80-85...except 72-77 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........38-43 percent...except 47-52 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 13 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (781).
Mixing Height.......5300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...2 percent.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Min Temperature.....57-62.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........85-90 percent.
   24 HR Trend......21 percent wetter...except 6 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Vent Rate...........Poor (34).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...7 percent.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....82-87...except 73-78 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........38-43 percent...except 47-52 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1179).
Mixing Height.......6300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...6 percent.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-030815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
242 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....49-54.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........83-88 percent.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Vent Rate...........Poor (26).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....80-85.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........38-43 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 13 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (862).
Mixing Height.......6200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...2 percent.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min Temperature.....55-60.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Vent Rate...........Poor (23).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...9 percent.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....82-87.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1139).
Mixing Height.......6800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...5 percent.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH; GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

HAD