716
FNUS53 KAPX 191852
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
252 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...Elevated fire weather conditions continue...

.DISCUSSION...Combination of low humidity, warm temperatures, and
dry fuels will continue to result in elevated fire weather concerns
across portions of interior and northeast lower Michigan each
afternoon through Tuesday. Minimum RH values will be in the 25 to 40
percent range as temperatures rise into the upper 60s to near 80
(warmest Monday). Tonight`s recovery not quite as strong as normal with
max RHs tonight only rising to the 60-65% range. Winds out of the
southwest will generally remain below critical levels, but may flirt
with critical values west of I-75. A cool down mid-late week with rain
chances at times late Tuesday night through Wednesday.

MIZ016-017-021>023-099-200815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
252 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....48-53.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........67-72 percent.
   24 HR Trend......21 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 27 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (70).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max Temperature.....72-77...except 59-64 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........34-39 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 27 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (673).
Mixing Height.......2800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....54-59.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer...except 5 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........84-89 percent.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 27 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (69).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....76-81...except 61-66 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........30-35 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 18 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (381).
Mixing Height.......2600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-200815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
252 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min Temperature.....46-51.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........76-81 percent...except 58-63 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......21 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 18 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (52).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....73-78...except 64-69 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........31-36 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (830).
Mixing Height.......3500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....53-58.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer...except 4 degrees warmer near
                    the coast.
Max Humidity........80-85 percent.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 27 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (67).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max Temperature.....77-82...except 63-68 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........28-33 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 18 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (420).
Mixing Height.......3000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-200815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
252 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Min Temperature.....45-50...except 55-60 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........74-79 percent...except 59-64 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......18 percent drier...except 31 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 27 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (65).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max Temperature.....71-76...except 59-64 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........34-39 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter...except 11 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (541).
Mixing Height.......2300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Min Temperature.....55-60.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........80-85 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter...except 17 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 27 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (66).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....74-79...except 60-65 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........29-34 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 18 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (364).
Mixing Height.......2200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ031>033-200815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
252 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min Temperature.....44-49.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........77-82 percent.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 18 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (61).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max Temperature.....69-74...except 62-67 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (493).
Mixing Height.......2200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Min Temperature.....51-56.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........79-84 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (66).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max Temperature.....74-79...except 63-68 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........30-35 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (405).
Mixing Height.......2400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-200815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
252 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....43-48.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........77-82 percent.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 18 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (57).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max Temperature.....72-77.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........32-37 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (900).
Mixing Height.......3600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Min Temperature.....53-58.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........75-80 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (66).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max Temperature.....76-81.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........29-34 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 13 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (577).
Mixing Height.......3400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...COOLER. MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MJG