936
FNUS53 KAPX 191944
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
344 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...Much Needed rainfall Friday and later Sunday...

.DISCUSSION...Periodic rain chances over the next few days. A
line of showers and embedded non severe storms expected Friday as
low pressure moves by well to our north. Rainfall amounts are
generally expected to be under a quarter of an inch. More
substantial much needed rainfall is then expected to end the
weekend from another area of low pressure. There will be
additional chances for rain next week but confidence of occurrence
is on the low side. Warm temperatures will continue into this
weekend with cooler conditions expected next week.

MIZ016-017-021>023-099-200815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
344 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Min Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent...except 79-84 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 13 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (27).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms until 1200, then scattered
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....72-77.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........55-60 percent.
   24 HR Trend......31 percent wetter...except 25 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 18 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (351).
Mixing Height.......2200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.03- 0.18 in.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) until 2400, then
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent).
Min Temperature.....57-62.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (32).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.09 in .

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....78-83...except 67-72 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........42-47 percent...except 54-59 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent drier...except 4 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming northwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (281).
Mixing Height.......4000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 6 mph shifting to the west in
                    the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-200815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
344 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min Temperature.....57-62.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 85-90 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (35).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Scattered showers
                    and thunderstorms after 1200.
Max Temperature.....74-79...except 67-72 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........52-57 percent.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 18 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (256).
Mixing Height.......1900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.15 in.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers and chance of thunderstorms until 2400.
Min Temperature.....56-61...except 63-68 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (35).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.02- 0.21 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max Temperature.....80-85...except around 71 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer...except 1 degree warmer near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........42-47 percent.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming north around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (296).
Mixing Height.......4300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 6 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-200815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
344 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent).
Min Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 79-84 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 13 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (21).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms until 1200, then scattered
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....73-78...except around 70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........59-64 percent.
   24 HR Trend......40 percent wetter...except 31 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 18 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (395).
Mixing Height.......2400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.04- 0.19 in.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent).
Min Temperature.....55-60...except 62-67 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (25).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in .

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....79-84...except 67-72 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........42-47 percent.
   24 HR Trend......22 percent drier...except 14 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming west around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (235).
Mixing Height.......3600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ031>033-200815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
344 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent).
Min Temperature.....57-62.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........88-93 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 13 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (29).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms until 1200, then scattered
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....73-78.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........61-66 percent.
   24 HR Trend......35 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 18 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (413).
Mixing Height.......2500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.03- 0.20 in.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent).
Min Temperature.....54-59.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (23).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in .

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....80-85...except 72-77 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer...except 4 degrees warmer near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........39-44 percent...except 49-54 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......23 percent drier...except 18 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming west around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (302).
Mixing Height.......4400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-200815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
344 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min Temperature.....55-60.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (35).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers until 1200, then scattered showers and
                    thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....77-82.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........49-54 percent.
   24 HR Trend......20 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 18 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (355).
Mixing Height.......2500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.16 in.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Scattered
                    showers and thunderstorms until 2400.
Min Temperature.....56-61.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (23).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in .

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....82-87.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........38-43 percent.
   24 HR Trend......21 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming northwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (430).
Mixing Height.......5500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 50.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

AJS