Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
230
FNUS53 KAPX 201834
FWFAPX
Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
234 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026
...Rain Chances Commence Friday, Lingering into Saturday...
.DISCUSSION... Ongoing efficient mixing and excellent ventilation
to dwindle by sunset this evening as an inversion settles in. RHs
in the mid 30s may dip closer to 30 over the next couple hours in
some spots, but will quickly rise in the evening. Current Lake
Huron breeze boundary making a westward progression from the
shore, but should retreat before reaching the M-33 corridor.
Clouds increase later tonight ahead of the next system, which will
bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area by Friday
afternoon. With increased moisture, anticipating RHs to remain
well removed from elevated fire danger range in the mid 40s...
that being said, efficient southerly winds (gusting as high as 20
to 25mph in the afternoon) with more good to excellent mixing are
anticipated.
Shower chances linger into Saturday, with the arrival of even
more moisture to keep RH values well out of elevated fire danger
range to start. Frontal passage later in the day flips winds NW
and trends quite gusty, perhaps reaching back up to 25mph at times
late in the afternoon with falling RHs. Should be noted that over
the course of the two days, anticipating rainfall to be scattered
in nature, and not a widespread soaking rain. By Sunday, cooler
and drier weather returns, but with a continued persistent NW
breeze.
MIZ016-017-021>023-099-210830-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
234 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) until 2400, then
mostly cloudy (45-55 percent).
Min Temperature.....57-62.
24 HR Trend......13 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........78-83 percent...except 63-68 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......21 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph shifting to the south
after midnight. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (26).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...2 percent.
.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers.
Max Temperature.....78-83...except 69-74 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........42-47 percent.
24 HR Trend......12 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (652).
Mixing Height.......4500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.10 in .
Chance of Thunder...12 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Chance of rain
showers.
Min Temperature.....57-62.
24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
24 HR Trend......21 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph in the evening
becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (22).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.47 in.
Chance of Thunder...21 percent.
.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of rain
showers.
Max Temperature.....72-77...except 64-69 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........59-64 percent.
24 HR Trend......21 percent wetter...except 12 percent wetter
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph shifting to the
northwest in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (528).
Mixing Height.......3700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 9 mph shifting to the northwest
around 15 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.05- 0.41 in.
Chance of Thunder...19 percent.
$$
MIZ018-024-030-036-042-210830-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
234 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent).
Min Temperature.....54-59...except 62-67 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent...except 70-75 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......11 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
becoming light.
Vent Rate...........Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...1 percent.
.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....78-83...except 68-73 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........41-46 percent.
24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (696).
Mixing Height.......4800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.07 in .
Chance of Thunder...8 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Chance of rain
showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....57-62...except 64-69 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent...except 82-87 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter...except 10 percent wetter
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (27).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.19 in.
Chance of Thunder...19 percent.
.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of showers
and thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....72-77...except 64-69 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........64-69 percent.
24 HR Trend......25 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
northwest in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (418).
Mixing Height.......3300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 9 mph shifting to the
northwest around 12 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.08- 0.40 in.
Chance of Thunder...27 percent.
$$
MIZ020-025>027-210830-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
234 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) until 2400, then
mostly cloudy (50-60 percent).
Min Temperature.....54-59...except 66-71 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......14 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........80-85 percent...except 68-73 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......19 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming south around 5 mph after
midnight. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (15).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 6 mph shifting to the south around
9 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...2 percent.
.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....77-82...except 67-72 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........45-50 percent.
24 HR Trend......14 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (580).
Mixing Height.......4000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.09 in .
Chance of Thunder...18 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Chance of rain
showers until 2400, then rain showers likely
and chance of thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....55-60...except 63-68 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
24 HR Trend......17 percent wetter...except 22 percent wetter
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
becoming light. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (25).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.05- 0.29 in.
Chance of Thunder...23 percent.
.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of rain
showers.
Max Temperature.....71-76...except 63-68 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........61-66 percent.
24 HR Trend......15 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (475).
Mixing Height.......3400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.02- 0.19 in.
Chance of Thunder...17 percent.
$$
MIZ031>033-210830-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
234 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent).
Min Temperature.....53-58.
24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........82-87 percent...except 73-78 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......7 percent drier...except 17 percent drier along
the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph
after midnight.
Vent Rate...........Poor (17).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 6 mph shifting to the south around
9 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...2 percent.
.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....78-83...except 71-76 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........44-49 percent...except 54-59 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......12 percent wetter...except 20 percent wetter
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (708).
Mixing Height.......4800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.07 in .
Chance of Thunder...17 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Chance of rain
showers until 2400, then rain showers likely
and chance of thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....56-61.
24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter...except 17 percent wetter
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (25).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.03- 0.24 in.
Chance of Thunder...23 percent.
.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of rain
showers.
Max Temperature.....72-77.
24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........57-62 percent.
24 HR Trend......17 percent wetter...except 10 percent wetter
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (608).
Mixing Height.......4200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.02- 0.20 in.
Chance of Thunder...18 percent.
$$
MIZ028-029-034-035-041-210830-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
234 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent).
Min Temperature.....53-58.
24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........89-94 percent.
24 HR Trend......7 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming
light.
Vent Rate...........Poor (32).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...2 percent.
.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....79-84.
24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........42-47 percent.
24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (840).
Mixing Height.......5800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...12 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Chance of rain
showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....55-60.
24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph in the evening
becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (22).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.19 in.
Chance of Thunder...21 percent.
.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Chance of rain
showers. Chance of thunderstorms after 1200.
Max Temperature.....73-78.
24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........61-66 percent.
24 HR Trend......22 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
northwest in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (605).
Mixing Height.......4500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 9 mph shifting to the
northwest around 12 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.05- 0.46 in.
Chance of Thunder...25 percent.
$$
.EXTENDED...
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
$$
HAD