Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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994
FNUS53 KAPX 171926
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
326 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

...Showers, Isolated Storms Tonight & Saturday, Rain and Wind Sunday...

.DISCUSSION...
Low fire concerns through the weekend as wetting rains are
expected. First round of showers will develop tonight, and slowly
shift east through the day in the form of both showers and
isolated thunderstorms. Thus, another quarter to half an inch of
rain possible through Saturday, locally higher amounts. Southwest
winds generally 10 to 20 mph. Strong system Saturday night into
Sunday to potentially bring 1 to 2 inches of rain and windy
conditions to the region. Consequently, min humidities in the 60
to 80 percent range through the weekend and mixing heights 1 to 3
kft.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-180815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
326 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....55-60.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (77).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.15 in .
Chance of Thunder...13 percent.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....64-69.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........57-62 percent...except 70-75 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Fair (258).
Mixing Height.......1600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.11- 0.31 in.
Chance of Thunder...23 percent.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 2400, then rain showers.
Min Temperature.....47-52.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Vent Rate...........Poor (19).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.18- 0.47 in.
Chance of Thunder...16 percent.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers.
Max Temperature.....57-62.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........66-71 percent.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter...except 6 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts up to 32 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (642).
Mixing Height.......2200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 12 mph increasing to northwest around 27 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.75- 1.24 in.
Chance of Thunder...14 percent.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-180815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
326 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Min Temperature.....52-57.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........84-89 percent...except 67-72 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier...except 23 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (73).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.09 in .
Chance of Thunder...2 percent.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....64-69...except 57-62 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........57-62 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter...except 1 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Fair (275).
Mixing Height.......1600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.20- 0.34 in.
Chance of Thunder...21 percent.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers
                    likely until 2400, then rain showers and chance
                    of thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....47-52...except 56-61 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter...except 23 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 13 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (27).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.27- 0.92 in.
Chance of Thunder...18 percent.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers.
Max Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........72-77 percent.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (535).
Mixing Height.......2100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 15 mph shifting to the
                    northwest around 24 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.76- 1.28 in.
Chance of Thunder...14 percent.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-180815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
326 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....55-60.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 82-87 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (87).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.07- 0.22 in.
Chance of Thunder...15 percent.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms until 1200. Scattered rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....64-69.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........62-67 percent.
   24 HR Trend......21 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Fair (237).
Mixing Height.......1700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.05- 0.32 in.
Chance of Thunder...26 percent.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 2400, then rain showers.
Min Temperature.....47-52.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (19).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.21- 0.46 in.
Chance of Thunder...20 percent.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain showers.
Max Temperature.....56-61.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........64-69 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter...except 4 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 36 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (773).
Mixing Height.......2500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 12 mph increasing to northwest
                    around 27 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.55- 1.00 in.
Chance of Thunder...12 percent.


$$

MIZ031>033-180815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
326 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....55-60.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (79).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.22 in.
Chance of Thunder...14 percent.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Numerous rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    until 1200, then scattered rain showers.
Max Temperature.....64-69.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........61-66 percent...except 75-80 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent wetter...except 25 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Fair (256).
Mixing Height.......1600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.17- 0.39 in.
Chance of Thunder...27 percent.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 2400, then rain showers.
Min Temperature.....45-50.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Vent Rate...........Poor (22).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.26- 0.50 in.
Chance of Thunder...21 percent.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain showers.
Max Temperature.....55-60.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........64-69 percent.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter...except 12 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (708).
Mixing Height.......2500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 15 mph increasing to northwest
                    around 27 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.67- 0.86 in.
Chance of Thunder...13 percent.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-180815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
326 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Min Temperature.....51-56.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........86-91 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (71).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.11 in .
Chance of Thunder...4 percent.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers
                    until 1200. Slight chance of thunderstorms.
                    Scattered rain showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....64-69.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........57-62 percent.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Fair (291).
Mixing Height.......1800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.21- 0.38 in.
Chance of Thunder...24 percent.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers
                    likely until 2400, then rain showers and chance
                    of thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....47-52.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Vent Rate...........Poor (27).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.38- 0.72 in.
Chance of Thunder...20 percent.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers.
Max Temperature.....57-62.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........71-76 percent.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (610).
Mixing Height.......2300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.82- 1.34 in.
Chance of Thunder...13 percent.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND
40. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

JLD