660
FNUS53 KAPX 041920
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
320 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

...Increasingly Breezy Saturday...

.DISCUSSION... Dry conditions will remain in place across northern
Michigan through this evening and into Saturday. The big player will
be a sharp cold front making its approach to the region. Southeast
to south winds will increase considerably through the day as the cold
front approaches, with gusts in excess of 25mph likely by the afternoon,
and will only increase further as we head into the evening, when some
30-40mph gusts will become possible. Combined with RHs in the 30s,
along with continued dry vegetation due to lack of recent rainfall,
certainly the risk is there for fire growth conditions even if Red Flag
criteria is not specifically met. Overnight, the front passes through,
bringing the potential for showers and thunderstorms. It is possible
that not all areas see rain, with the most favorable spots to see rain
being north of M-72. Temperatures on Saturday will be in the 60s and 70s.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-050830-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
320 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Min Temperature.....38-43...except 45-50 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler...except 6 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........81-86 percent...except 69-74 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming
                    light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 6 mph shifting to the southwest
                    after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent). Areas of frost until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....66-71.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........29-34 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier...except 12 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 27 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (832).
Mixing Height.......4200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Rain showers
                    likely and chance of thunderstorms after 2400.
Min Temperature.....52-57...except 59-64 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......17 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent...except 70-75 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter...except unchanged along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 41 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (136).
Mixing Height.......800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 21 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.12- 0.23 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Rain showers
                    likely until 1200.
Max Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........40-45 percent...except 51-56 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......22 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 27 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1361).
Mixing Height.......5700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 21 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.04- 0.12 in.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-050830-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
320 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Min Temperature.....36-41...except 44-49 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........85-90 percent...except 71-76 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (16).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent). Patchy frost until 1200.
Max Temperature.....64-69.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........33-38 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter...except 3 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southeast around 10 mph in
                    the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (755).
Mixing Height.......4300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Rain showers
                    likely and chance of thunderstorms after 2400.
Min Temperature.....54-59.
   24 HR Trend......19 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........83-88 percent...except 74-79 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 36 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (85).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 18 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.11- 0.25 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Rain showers
                    likely until 1200.
Max Temperature.....66-71...except 59-64 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........35-40 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 32 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1660).
Mixing Height.......6700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 18 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.06- 0.13 in.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-050830-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
320 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent). Areas of frost
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....36-41...except around 50 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........78-83 percent...except 54-59 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent drier...except 25 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (15).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 6 mph shifting to the south after
                    midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent). Areas of frost until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....67-72.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........30-35 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier...except 11 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 27 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (804).
Mixing Height.......3400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Rain showers
                    likely and chance of thunderstorms after 2400.
Min Temperature.....52-57...except around 60 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......15 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........88-93 percent...except 68-73 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter...except 16 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 41 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (157).
Mixing Height.......800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.17- 0.25 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........43-48 percent.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent wetter...except 20 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 27 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1290).
Mixing Height.......5600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 18 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.03- 0.12 in.


$$

MIZ031>033-050830-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
320 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent). Areas of frost
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....34-39.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........76-81 percent...except 65-70 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 9 mph shifting to the
                    southeast around 6 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent). Areas of frost until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....67-72.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........31-36 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier...except 8 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 27 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (819).
Mixing Height.......3400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Rain showers
                    likely and chance of thunderstorms after 2400.
Min Temperature.....52-57.
   24 HR Trend......18 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........88-93 percent...except 73-78 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent wetter...except 10 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 36 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (136).
Mixing Height.......700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.15- 0.26 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........42-47 percent.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 27 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1346).
Mixing Height.......5700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 18 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.02- 0.13 in.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-050830-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
320 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent). Areas of frost
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....34-39.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........81-86 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (15).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 9 mph shifting to the west around
                    6 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent). Areas of frost until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....65-70.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........33-38 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (753).
Mixing Height.......4000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 6 mph increasing to south
                    around 18 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Rain showers
                    likely and chance of thunderstorms after 2400.
Min Temperature.....52-57.
   24 HR Trend......18 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........83-88 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 32 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (96).
Mixing Height.......700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.09- 0.27 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Rain showers
                    likely until 1200.
Max Temperature.....66-71.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 27 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1556).
Mixing Height.......6200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 18 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.05- 0.14 in.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

HAD