Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
870
FNUS53 KAPX 181841
FWFAPX
Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
241 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026
...Showers and Storms Spread this Evening...
.DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to sweep across
Michigan`s Northern Lower Peninsula mainly between 4 to 10pm this
evening. While the majority of areas can expect rainfall totals
between a few tenths to a half inch, locations south of Grand
Traverse Bay could observe QPF well over an inch. Surface high
pressure returns precipitation free weather this Wednesday and
Thursday followed by additional chances of showers and storms this
Friday.
MIZ016-017-021>023-099-190815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
241 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) until 2400, then
partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Rain showers
likely and scattered thunderstorms until 2400,
then chance of rain showers. Patchy fog after
2400.
Min Temperature.....55-60...except 62-67 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer...except 6 degrees cooler near
the coast.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent...except 75-80 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (19).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 9 mph shifting to the north
around 6 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.03- 0.51 in.
Chance of Thunder...31 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....74-79...except around 71 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........34-39 percent.
24 HR Trend......18 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming northwest around 5 mph in
the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (800).
Mixing Height.......6400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .
Chance of Thunder...2 percent.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....49-54...except 57-62 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........88-93 percent...except 72-77 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (12).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 9 mph shifting to the south around
3 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.
.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....76-81...except 68-73 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........34-39 percent.
24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming west around 5 mph in the
afternoon. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (712).
Mixing Height.......6500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 6 mph shifting to the west around
12 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...2 percent.
$$
MIZ018-024-030-036-042-190815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
241 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Rain showers
likely and scattered thunderstorms until 2400,
then chance of rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Patchy fog after 2400.
Min Temperature.....55-60...except 62-67 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Max Humidity........89-94 percent...except 76-81 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.04- 0.53 in.
Chance of Thunder...34 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Chance of rain
showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....76-81...except 68-73 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........34-39 percent.
24 HR Trend......11 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (690).
Mixing Height.......6700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .
Chance of Thunder...3 percent.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min Temperature.....49-54...except 58-63 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......9 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 75-80 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (16).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...3 percent.
.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....77-82...except 67-72 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........35-40 percent.
24 HR Trend......1 percent drier...except 4 percent wetter along
the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming south around 5 mph in the
afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Good (574).
Mixing Height.......6500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...1 percent.
$$
MIZ020-025>027-190815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
241 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) until 2400, then
partly cloudy (45-55 percent). Scattered
thunderstorms until 2400. Rain showers likely.
Isolated thunderstorms after 2400. Patchy fog
after 2400.
Min Temperature.....54-59...except 62-67 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer...except 2 degrees cooler near
the coast.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
24 HR Trend......3 percent drier...except 3 percent wetter along
the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming
light. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (21).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 9 mph shifting to the north around
6 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.11- 0.84 in.
Chance of Thunder...38 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....73-78...except around 71 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent.
24 HR Trend......11 percent drier...except 19 percent drier
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming northwest around 5 mph in
the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (629).
Mixing Height.......6000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .
Chance of Thunder...3 percent.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....48-53...except 65-70 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent...except 68-73 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......1 percent drier...except 7 percent drier along
the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (15).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 6 mph shifting to the southeast
after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.
.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max Temperature.....76-81...except 67-72 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........35-40 percent.
24 HR Trend......1 percent drier...except 7 percent wetter along
the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming west around 5 mph in the
afternoon. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (700).
Mixing Height.......6600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph shifting to the west around
12 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...1 percent.
$$
MIZ031>033-190815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
241 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Rain showers
likely and scattered thunderstorms until 2400,
then chance of rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Patchy fog after 2400.
Min Temperature.....56-61.
24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent.
24 HR Trend......10 percent drier...except 4 percent drier along
the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming
light. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (23).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 9 mph shifting to the north
around 6 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.24- 0.70 in.
Chance of Thunder...42 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max Temperature.....74-79.
24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........35-40 percent.
24 HR Trend......10 percent drier...except 17 percent drier
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming northwest around 5 mph in
the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (648).
Mixing Height.......6400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 6 mph shifting to the northwest
around 12 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .
Chance of Thunder...2 percent.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Min Temperature.....50-55.
24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........85-90 percent.
24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
becoming light.
Vent Rate...........Poor (16).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 9 mph shifting to the southeast
around 6 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.
.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....77-82.
24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........34-39 percent.
24 HR Trend......3 percent drier...except 2 percent wetter along
the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming west around 5 mph in the
afternoon. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (752).
Mixing Height.......7400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph shifting to the west around
12 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...1 percent.
$$
MIZ028-029-034-035-041-190815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
241 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Scattered
thunderstorms until 2400. Rain showers likely.
Isolated thunderstorms after 2400. Patchy fog
after 2400.
Min Temperature.....56-61.
24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent.
24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming
light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (22).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 12 mph shifting to the north around
6 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.18- 0.61 in.
Chance of Thunder...36 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....75-80.
24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........34-39 percent.
24 HR Trend......11 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming northwest around 5 mph in
the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (724).
Mixing Height.......7000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 6 mph shifting to the northwest
around 12 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .
Chance of Thunder...3 percent.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....48-53.
24 HR Trend......9 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........89-94 percent.
24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
becoming light.
Vent Rate...........Poor (12).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 9 mph shifting to the east around
6 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...2 percent.
.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....78-83.
24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........34-39 percent.
24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming west around 5 mph in the
afternoon. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (785).
Mixing Height.......7900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 6 mph shifting to the west
around 12 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...1 percent.
$$
.EXTENDED...
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
$$
SJC