Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
043
FNUS53 KAPX 181939
FWFAPX
Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
339 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024
...Elevated fire danger persists due to warm and dry weather...
.DISCUSSION...
High pressure remains in control through Thursday, with warm and
dry conditions persisting. Min humidity will drop into the mid to
upper 30s across interior sections of northern lower Michigan
Thursday afternoon, further drying fuels. Winds remain light, at
about 5 to 10 mph in most cases. Min humidity increases Friday
with light showers expected. The pattern appears to flip to a bit
more moist and active late weekend into next week.
MIZ016-017-021>023-099-190830-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
339 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Min Temperature.....56-61.
24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent.
24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
becoming light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (28).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). Patchy fog until 1200.
Max Temperature.....82-87...except 71-76 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........35-40 percent.
24 HR Trend......1 percent drier...except 5 percent wetter along
the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming south around 5 mph in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (500).
Mixing Height.......5200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) until 2400, then
mostly cloudy (50-60 percent).
Min Temperature.....59-64.
24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........86-91 percent...except 76-81 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 13 percent drier along the
coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph with occasional
gusts up to 13 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (29).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
showers.
Max Temperature.....77-82...except 68-73 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........47-52 percent...except 59-64 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......20 percent wetter...except 12 percent wetter
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
up to 18 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (463).
Mixing Height.......3000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in .
$$
MIZ018-024-030-036-042-190830-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
339 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....54-59.
24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
becoming light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (25).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Patchy fog until 1200.
Max Temperature.....80-85...except around 71 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent.
24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph in
the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (333).
Mixing Height.......4300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent) until 2400, then
mostly cloudy (45-55 percent).
Min Temperature.....57-62.
24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent...except 83-88 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
becoming light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (35).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....77-82...except 67-72 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........45-50 percent.
24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter...except 3 percent drier along
the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (326).
Mixing Height.......2900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .
$$
MIZ020-025>027-190830-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
339 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Min Temperature.....54-59...except around 61 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer...except 3 degrees warmer near
the coast.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 84-89 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (19).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 6 mph shifting to the
southeast around 9 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....82-87...except 68-73 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........34-39 percent.
24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter...except 19 percent wetter
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
up to 13 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (517).
Mixing Height.......5100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) until 2400, then
mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Min Temperature.....57-62...except 64-69 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........83-88 percent...except 72-77 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......15 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph
after midnight.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (19).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
showers.
Max Temperature.....76-81...except around 71 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........52-57 percent.
24 HR Trend......19 percent wetter...except 8 percent wetter
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
up to 18 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (511).
Mixing Height.......3100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.11 in.
$$
MIZ031>033-190830-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
339 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....55-60.
24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer...except 5 degrees warmer
near the coast.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
becoming light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (25).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....82-87...except 73-78 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........35-40 percent.
24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter...except 11 percent wetter
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
up to 13 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (510).
Mixing Height.......5500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) until 2400, then
mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Min Temperature.....57-62.
24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........84-89 percent.
24 HR Trend......15 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph with occasional
gusts up to 13 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (25).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
showers.
Max Temperature.....76-81.
24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........55-60 percent.
24 HR Trend......25 percent wetter...except 17 percent wetter
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
up to 13 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (559).
Mixing Height.......3300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in .
$$
MIZ028-029-034-035-041-190830-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
339 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent). Patchy fog after
2400.
Min Temperature.....52-57.
24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (27).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Patchy fog until
1200.
Max Temperature.....81-86.
24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........35-40 percent.
24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph in
the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (391).
Mixing Height.......5200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent) until 2400, then
mostly cloudy (45-55 percent).
Min Temperature.....56-61.
24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
becoming light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (35).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....79-84.
24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........46-51 percent.
24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
up to 13 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (425).
Mixing Height.......3400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .
$$
.EXTENDED...
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
$$
JLD