Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
071
FNUS53 KAPX 161728
FWFAPX
Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
128 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026
...Smoky skies continue into Friday; Showers/ Storm Chances Return...
.DISCUSSION...
Smoky skies continue to limit daytime high temperatures, with
this trend expected to continue into Friday as smoke lingers. RHs
Friday look to be in the upper 30s to mid 40s across much of
northern Lower with moisture increasing Friday evening/ night as
our next shower/ storm chances work into the region. Scattered
shower/storm chances return as early as Friday afternoon, with
chances maximized Friday night into early Saturday with locally
heavy rainfall possible. Precipitation chances linger into
Saturday, with winds becoming gusty by Saturday afternoon.
MIZ016-017-021>023-099-170815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
128 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Smoke.
Min Temperature.....58-63...except 66-71 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Max Humidity........83-88 percent...except 70-75 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......10 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (16).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 9 mph shifting to the
northeast around 6 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...1 percent.
.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Areas of smoke
until 1200, then smoke. Slight chance of rain
showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....80-85...except 71-76 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent.
24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph in
the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Good (374).
Mixing Height.......4000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.13 in .
Chance of Thunder...11 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Areas of smoke.
Chance of showers until 2400Showers and chance
of thunderstorms after 2400.
Min Temperature.....62-67...except 69-74 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
24 HR Trend......15 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
southwest after midnight. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (33).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.07- 0.39 in.
Chance of Thunder...25 percent.
.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Areas of smoke
until 1200. Chance of thunderstorms until 1200.
Chance of showers.
Max Temperature.....76-81...except 67-72 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........56-61 percent.
24 HR Trend......22 percent wetter...except 15 percent wetter
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (624).
Mixing Height.......3500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 15 mph shifting to the northwest
around 21 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.04- 0.19 in.
Chance of Thunder...24 percent.
$$
MIZ018-024-030-036-042-170815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
128 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Smoke until
2400, then areas of smoke.
Min Temperature.....57-62...except 66-71 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Max Humidity........82-87 percent...except 70-75 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......9 percent drier...except 3 percent drier along
the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (16).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...1 percent.
.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Areas of smoke
until 1200, then smoke.
Max Temperature.....81-86...except 68-73 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent.
24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph in
the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Good (340).
Mixing Height.......3600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in .
Chance of Thunder...11 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Areas of smoke.
Showers and chance of thunderstorms after 2400.
Min Temperature.....65-70.
24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
24 HR Trend......15 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
southwest after midnight. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (37).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph shifting to the southwest
after midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.32 in.
Chance of Thunder...35 percent.
.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Areas of smoke
until 1200. Chance of showers. Chance of
thunderstorms after 1200.
Max Temperature.....83-88...except 69-74 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........49-54 percent.
24 HR Trend......14 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (800).
Mixing Height.......4000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.14 in.
Chance of Thunder...36 percent.
$$
MIZ020-025>027-170815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
128 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (45-55 percent). Smoke.
Min Temperature.....61-66...except 69-74 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........79-84 percent...except 65-70 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......17 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 6 mph shifting to the east after
midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...3 percent.
.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Smoke. Slight
chance of rain showers.
Max Temperature.....80-85...except 70-75 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........42-47 percent.
24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph in
the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (415).
Mixing Height.......3500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.13 in .
Chance of Thunder...13 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) until 2400, then
mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Areas of smoke
until 2400, then patchy smoke. Chance of
showers and thunderstorms after 2400.
Min Temperature.....65-70.
24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer...except 1 degree warmer near
the coast.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
24 HR Trend......16 percent wetter...except 22 percent wetter
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
gusts up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (44).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.05- 0.20 in.
Chance of Thunder...29 percent.
.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of
thunderstorms until 1200. Showers likely.
Max Temperature.....75-80...except 67-72 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........61-66 percent.
24 HR Trend......22 percent wetter...except 13 percent wetter
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (586).
Mixing Height.......3200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 15 mph shifting to the northwest
around 21 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.04- 0.14 in.
Chance of Thunder...30 percent.
$$
MIZ031>033-170815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
128 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) until 2400, then
partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Smoke.
Min Temperature.....61-66...except 69-74 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer...except 9 degrees warmer near
the coast.
Max Humidity........75-80 percent...except 59-64 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......19 percent drier...except 32 percent drier
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
becoming light.
Vent Rate...........Poor (23).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 9 mph shifting to the east around
6 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...6 percent.
.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Smoke. Slight
chance of rain showers.
Max Temperature.....82-87.
24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........41-46 percent.
24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph in
the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (527).
Mixing Height.......4400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in .
Chance of Thunder...16 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Areas of smoke
until 2400. Chance of showers and thunderstorms
after 2400.
Min Temperature.....66-71...except 73-78 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer...except 3 degrees warmer near
the coast.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 85-90 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......16 percent wetter...except 32 percent wetter
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (42).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.11 in.
Chance of Thunder...26 percent.
.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of showers
and thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....79-84.
24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........58-63 percent.
24 HR Trend......20 percent wetter...except 9 percent wetter
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph shifting to the
northwest in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (689).
Mixing Height.......3800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.14 in.
Chance of Thunder...28 percent.
$$
MIZ028-029-034-035-041-170815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
128 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Smoke.
Min Temperature.....58-63.
24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Max Humidity........80-85 percent.
24 HR Trend......12 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (15).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...3 percent.
.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Smoke.
Max Temperature.....82-87.
24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent.
24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming south around 5 mph in the
afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Good (551).
Mixing Height.......5300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 6 mph shifting to the southwest
around 12 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in .
Chance of Thunder...17 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) until 2400, then
mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Smoke until
2400, then areas of smoke. Showers likely and
chance of thunderstorms after 2400.
Min Temperature.....65-70.
24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
24 HR Trend......13 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (37).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.11 in .
Chance of Thunder...28 percent.
.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Areas of smoke
until 1200. Chance of showers. Chance of
thunderstorms after 1200.
Max Temperature.....82-87.
24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........49-54 percent.
24 HR Trend......17 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (779).
Mixing Height.......3900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.07 in .
Chance of Thunder...34 percent.
$$
.EXTENDED...
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
$$
NSC