Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
533
FNUS53 KAPX 231925
FWFAPX
Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
325 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026
...Another Dry Day Friday; Rain Chances Return for the Weekend...
.DISCUSSION... Breezy southwest flow will taper down closer to
sunset this evening, along with an accompanying rise in RHs as an
inversion hinders mixing and venting. High pressure exits stage
right of the Great Lakes on Friday, forcing return flow back into
the region. Result will be one last dry day, but with a return to
more seasonable temperatures in the 70s and 80s (warmest northeast
lower). RHs will once again dip into the 30s across northeast
lower, perhaps approaching or even attaining elevated fire danger
criteria. Winds look to be relatively light, but could gust to 15
to 20 mph in the afternoon hours. Mixing and venting will make an
exquisite recovery from their overnight lows as well.
Looking ahead, we trend wetter Saturday, particularly north, as a
frontal boundary makes a run at the region and stalls out over the
region. As such, anticipation is that rain chances will ebb and
flow into early next week as disturbances ride along the front and pass
through northern Michigan. One thing of note is that the presence
of thunderstorms, particularly Saturday, will lead to potential
for erratic / shifting wind speeds and directions.
MIZ016-017-021>023-099-240830-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
325 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Min Temperature.....53-58...except around 60 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........83-88 percent.
24 HR Trend......15 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (32).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.
.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....78-83...except 69-74 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........33-38 percent...except 43-48 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (729).
Mixing Height.......7000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...2 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min Temperature.....55-60...except 64-69 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer...except 7 degrees warmer near
the coast.
Max Humidity........83-88 percent...except 73-78 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter...except 3 percent drier along
the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (19).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.
.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of rain
showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....77-82...except 69-74 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........47-52 percent.
24 HR Trend......15 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (671).
Mixing Height.......5100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in .
Chance of Thunder...13 percent.
$$
MIZ018-024-030-036-042-240830-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
325 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Min Temperature.....51-56...except 59-64 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........84-89 percent...except 70-75 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......13 percent drier...except 6 percent drier along
the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (27).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...1 percent.
.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....79-84...except 68-73 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........32-37 percent.
24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (718).
Mixing Height.......6900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...3 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Min Temperature.....54-59...except 64-69 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent...except 73-78 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (29).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.
.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of rain
showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....79-84...except 69-74 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........42-47 percent.
24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (712).
Mixing Height.......5900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .
Chance of Thunder...10 percent.
$$
MIZ020-025>027-240830-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
325 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Min Temperature.....52-57...except around 61 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........89-94 percent...except 76-81 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......14 percent drier...except 9 percent drier along
the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
becoming light. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (31).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.
.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....76-81...except 68-73 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent.
24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (697).
Mixing Height.......6500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...1 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min Temperature.....57-62...except 68-73 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........85-90 percent...except 76-81 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (22).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.
.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of rain
showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....77-82...except 68-73 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........54-59 percent.
24 HR Trend......14 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (655).
Mixing Height.......4800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .
Chance of Thunder...14 percent.
$$
MIZ031>033-240830-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
325 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....48-53.
24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer...except 1 degree warmer near
the coast.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent.
24 HR Trend......10 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming
light.
Vent Rate...........Poor (26).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.
.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....77-82.
24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent...except 45-50 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter...except 4 percent wetter
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (710).
Mixing Height.......6900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...1 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....56-61...except 63-68 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........86-91 percent.
24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter...except 3 percent drier along
the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
gusts up to 13 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (16).
Mixing Height.......200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.
.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max Temperature.....77-82.
24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........52-57 percent...except 62-67 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......17 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (680).
Mixing Height.......5100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...12 percent.
$$
MIZ028-029-034-035-041-240830-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
325 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Min Temperature.....48-53.
24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent.
24 HR Trend......7 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming
light.
Vent Rate...........Poor (23).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.
.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....77-82.
24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........33-38 percent.
24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph in
the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (818).
Mixing Height.......8100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...3 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....51-56.
24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph in the evening
becoming light.
Vent Rate...........Poor (24).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.
.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....79-84.
24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........44-49 percent.
24 HR Trend......16 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (804).
Mixing Height.......6400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .
Chance of Thunder...9 percent.
$$
.EXTENDED...
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS AROUND 80.
WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
$$
HAD