960
FGUS73 KAPX 132238
ESFAPX
MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-202245-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
538 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

...SPRING 2025 FLOOD OUTLOOK #1 FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN...

THE SPRING 2025 FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN INDICATES A
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING DUE TO SNOW MELT
WITHIN MAJOR EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN RIVER
BASINS.

THIS OUTLOOK COVERS CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES IN EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN WHICH INCLUDES THE PINE RIVER BASIN...AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF LOWER MICHIGAN ENCOMPASSING THE AU SABLE...
BOARDMAN...MANISTEE...RIFLE...AND TOBACCO RIVER BASINS.

THE FIRST TABLE BELOW LISTS THE PROBABILITIES OF REACHING
FLOOD STAGE (MINOR FLOODING)...AS WELL AS MODERATE AND MAJOR
FLOOD LEVELS FOR THE SIX FORECAST POINTS WITHIN THE GAYLORD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.  THE
CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...
MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN HS: THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING
THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS: THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING
THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID PERIOD:  02/17/2025 - 05/18/2025

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:MANISTEE RIVER
SHERMAN             15.0   16.0   17.0 :  54   12    7   <5   <5   <5
:BOARDMAN RIVER
MAYFIELD--BROWN B    7.0    8.0    9.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:AU SABLE RIVER
RED OAK              7.0    8.0    9.0 :  40   12    8   <5   <5   <5
:RIFLE RIVER
STERLING             6.0   11.0   13.0 :  65   63   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PINE RIVER
RUDYARD             17.0   19.0   20.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:TOBACCO RIVER
BEAVERTON           12.0   14.0   17.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL OF REACHING FLOOD STAGE IS THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE CURRENT PROJECTED CHANCE FOR REACHING FLOOD STAGE (CS)
AND THE CLIMATIC NORMAL (HS).  FOR EXAMPLE...THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR
SHERMAN...WITH A FLOOD STAGE OF 15 FEET...HAS A 54 PERCENT CHANCE OF
REACHING OR EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE...WHICH IS 42 PERCENTAGE POINTS
ABOVE NORMAL.  DURING THE 90 DAY PERIOD LISTED...THE TYPICAL
PROBABILITY OF THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN REACHING FLOOD STAGE IS
12 PERCENT.

THE NEXT TABLE SHOWS THE CHANCE THAT A PARTICULAR RIVER LOCATION COULD
RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGES IN THE SPECIFIED 90 DAY PERIOD (HIGH FLOW
FORECAST):

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                               CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                  AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 02/17/2025 - 05/18/2025
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:MANISTEE RIVER
SHERMAN              14.2   14.3   14.8   15.1   15.4   15.8   16.1
:BOARDMAN RIVER
MAYFIELD--BROWN B     4.5    4.5    4.7    4.9    5.1    5.4    5.5
:AU SABLE RIVER
RED OAK               5.4    5.8    6.1    6.8    7.5    7.8    8.2
:RIFLE RIVER
STERLING              4.8    5.0    5.6    6.6    8.0    8.9    9.4
:PINE RIVER
RUDYARD               8.4    9.2   10.3   11.6   13.1   14.4   15.6
:TOBACCO RIVER
BEAVERTON             5.8    6.0    6.3    6.8    7.6    8.7    9.3

CURRENT FORECASTS SUGGEST PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE ARE
AROUND 50 PERCENT ON THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN...THE AU SABLE
RIVER NEAR RED OAK...AND THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING.  ELSEWHERE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE IS LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.

THE LAST TABLE INDICATES THE CHANCE THAT A PARTICULAR RIVER LOCATION
COULD FALL BELOW THE LISTED STAGES IN THE SPECIFIED 90 DAY PERIOD (LOW
FLOW FORECAST):

...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 02/17/2025 - 05/18/2025
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:MANISTEE RIVER
SHERMAN               0.7    0.7    0.7    0.7    0.7    0.7    0.7
:BOARDMAN RIVER
MAYFIELD--BROWN B     0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1
:AU SABLE RIVER
RED OAK               0.6    0.6    0.6    0.6    0.6    0.6    0.6
:RIFLE RIVER
STERLING              0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1
:PINE RIVER
RUDYARD               0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1
:TOBACCO RIVER
BEAVERTON             0.2    0.2    0.2    0.2    0.2    0.2    0.2

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ROUTINELY ISSUED IN FEBRUARY AND MARCH IN
ORDER TO GIVE ADVANCE NOTICE OF POSSIBLE FLOODING. THE LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS GIVEN IN THE ABOVE TABLES CONTAIN FORECAST
VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30
OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...AND INCORPORATE CURRENT
RIVER LEVELS...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT VALUES...AND BOTH 30 AND 90 DAY OUTLOOKS FOR TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION PROVIDED BY THE NOAA/NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER.  ACTUAL RIVER CRESTS WILL DIFFER FROM THIS OUTLOOK IF
FUTURE CONDITIONS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FORECAST CONDITIONS...
OR IF ICE JAMS DEVELOP.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS...

ABOVE NORMAL SNOWFALL AND SNOWPACK IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE ABOVE
NORMAL FLOOD PROBABILITIES AT SEVERAL GAGING LOCATIONS ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SUMMER MONTHS (JUNE-AUGUST) WAS
GENERALLY FROM 75 TO 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL. ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN JUNE WAS THE WETTEST MONTH OF THE SUMMER WITH
PRECIPITATION 150 TO 200+ PERCENT OF NORMAL...THINGS STARTED TO
DRY OUT IN JULY WITH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL THOUGH MOST AREAS
RECEIVED AT LEAST 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION. A SIMILAR
TREND WAS NOTED IN AUGUST. PRECIPITATION DURING THE FALL
(SEPTEMBER-NOVEMBER) STARTED BELOW NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER (LESS THAN
50 PERCENT OF NORMAL WITH SOME AREAS LESS THAN 25 PERCENT OF
NORMAL) AND OCTOBER (25 TO 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL). BUT NOVEMBER
PRECIPITATION WAS ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS...MORE THAN 200
PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY AND IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN ANTRIM/WESTERN OTSEGO/NORTHWEST KALKASKA
COUNTIES MAINLY DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT DURING
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

DECEMBER PRECIPITATION WAS ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS...WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION (150 TO 200+ PERCENT OF NORMAL)
CONCENTRATED OVER THE TYPICAL NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AREAS. TRAVERSE CITY RECORDED ITS SECOND SNOWIEST DECEMBER ON
RECORD (48.2 INCHES)...GAYLORD ITS FOURTH SNOWIEST DECEMBER (57.9
INCHES)...AND HOUGHTON LAKE ITS 9TH SNOWIEST (23.4 INCHES).
JANUARY 2025 PRECIPITATION WAS DEPENDENT ON LOCATION RELATIVE TO
THE LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN SNOWBELT AREAS. PRECIPITATION
DEPARTURES OF 150 TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL OCCURRED MAINLY BETWEEN
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AND THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN (BOUNDED ROUGHLY BY M-68 AND M-72 TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH
RESPECTIVELY)...THE TYPICAL LAKE MICHIGAN SNOW BELT REGIONS.
PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES OF 100 TO 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL OCCURRED
OVER NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY ADJACENT TO WHITEFISH BAY. SAULT
STE. MARIE RECORDED THEIR SECOND SNOWIEST JANUARY ON RECORD (58.4
INCHES).

AS OF FEBRUARY 14TH...TOTAL SEASONAL SNOWFALL AT SAULT STE.
MARIE...GAYLORD...AND TRAVERSE CITY HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED THEIR
NORMAL SEASONAL SNOWFALL TOTAL. HOWEVER ALL MAJOR CLIMATE SITES
HAVE SNOWFALL TOTALS THUS FAR RUNNING 100 TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL
FOR THE SEASON...EXCEPT FOR ALPENA AT 88 PERCENT OF NORMAL. LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION SO FAR THIS MONTH IS RUNNING ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS...WITH 200 TO 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS
INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER FROM M-55 NORTH TO M-32.

SOIL MOISTURE IS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN (NORTH OF M-32) AND IN THE 20TH TO 30TH PERCENTILE
ELSEWHERE. STREAMFLOWS ON NORTHERN MICHIGAN RIVERS ARE BELOW
NORMAL ON THE AU SABLE AND MANISTEE RIVERS...AND NEAR NORMAL
ELSEWHERE WITHE FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS DUE TO ICE ACTIVITY.

LINGERING D2 (SEVERE) DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF
OSCODA...ALCONA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW...IOSCO...GLADWIN...AND
ARENAC COUNTIES.

D1 (MODERATE) DROUGHT CONDITIONS ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF
PRESQUE ISLE...LEELANAU...MONTMORENCY...ALPENA...BENZIE...GRAND
TRAVERSE...KALKASKA...CRAWFORD...MANISTEE...WEXFORD...AND
MISSAUKEE COUNTIES.

...WEATHER OUTLOOK...
THE CURRENT CLIMATOLOGICAL OUTLOOK FOR THE REMAINDER OF FEBRUARY
IS LEANING TOWARD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE SPRING (MARCH THROUGH MAY) INDICATES NO
DISCERNIBLE TREND WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES (EQUAL
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE... NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION)....AND A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION

...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...
THE NEXT SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY FEBRUARY
27, 2025. LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS SUCH AS THOSE GIVEN
IN THE ABOVE TABLES ARE ISSUED DURING THE LAST WEEK OF EACH MONTH
THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.

VISIT WATER.NOAA.GOV/WFO/APX ALL LOWER CASE) FOR MORE RIVER
INFORMATION...INCLUDING GRAPHS OF THE PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION
GIVEN IN THE ABOVE TABLES...AS WELL AS THE LATEST OBSERVED
CONDITIONS ON NORTHERN MICHIGAN STREAMS.

$$

JPB