Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
255 AXUS73 KAPX 171907 DGTAPX MIC001-007-009-011-019-029-031-033-039-047-051-055-069-079-089- 097-101-113-119-129-135-137-141-143-165-241915- Drought Information Statement National Weather Service Gaylord MI 307 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024 ...Severe Drought Conditions Across Parts of Northern Michigan... .SYNOPSIS: Persistent dry and warmer than normal temperatures have resulted in Severe Drought conditions developing across most of eastern Upper Michigan and a small portion of northwest Lower Michigan. .DROUGHT INTENSITY AND EXTENT: The following description of northern Michigan drought conditions is based on the most recent U.S. Drought Monitor published on October 17, 2024. Drought Category D2...Severe Drought: Crop or pasture losses likely...water shortages common. Areas included in drought category D2 include Mackinac and Chippewa counties in eastern Upper Michigan...and Manistee...Benzie...Leelanau...Antrim... Charlevoix...Emmet...and Cheboygan counties in northwest Lower Michigan. This is an expansion of D2 drought into the Straits of Mackinac. Drought Category D1...Moderate Drought: Some damage to crops and pastures...streams or wells low...some water shortages developing or imminent. Areas included in drought category D1 include the following counties: Presque Isle...Otsego...Montmorency... Alpena...Grand Traverse...Kalkaska...Crawford...Oscoda...Alcona... Wexford...Missaukee...Roscommon...Ogemaw...Iosco...Gladwin...and Arenac. This is an expansion of D1 drought across the remainder of northern Lower Michigan. .HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS: Precipitation through the summer months (June- August) was generally from 75 to 125 percent of normal. Across eastern Upper Michigan June was the wettest month of the summer with precipitation 150-200+ percent of normal...things started to dry out in July with below normal rainfall though most areas received at least 50 percent of normal precipitation. A similar trend was noted in August. Precipitation across all of northern Michigan was below normal for September (less than 50 percent of normal with some areas less than 25 percent normal). So far for the first half of October...precipitation has been less than 25 percent of normal for most areas north of a Frankfort to Standish line...and from 25 to 50 percent of normal elsewhere. Temperatures for the summer came out pretty much near normal... September ended up about 3 to 7 degrees above normal. Both Sault Ste. Marie and Gaylord recorded their warmest September on record. Temperatures in October started out 1 to 3 degrees above normal for the first ten days of the month...but a spell of cooler weather from October 12-16 has brought average temperatures down to within one degree of normal. The combined warmth and dryness has resulted in a drying of topsoil across northern Michigan. Soil moisture across much of eastern Upper Michigan is below the 5th percentile...as well as along and west of the US-131 corridor in northern Lower Michigan. Streamflows are also running well below normal for mid October: gaging stations reporting record low streamflows for October 17th are as follows: Pine River near Rudyard Platte River at Honor Boardman River near Mayfield Manistee River near Mesick (Hodenpyl Dam) Manistee River near Wellston (Tippy Dam) South Branch Au Sable River near Luzerne Au Sable River near Au Sable .SUMMARY OF IMPACTS: No known impacts at this time. .LOCAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK: Warmer than normal temperatures are expected Friday...with highs in the 60s (normal highs are in the mid- upper 50s) and low relative humidity values increasing fire danger. A slow warming trend will continue through the weekend and into early next week with little precipitation expected until Tuesday where there is some likelihood of parts of northwest Lower and eastern Upper Michigan picking up 0.10-0.25 inch of rainfall on average. The 6 to 10 day outlook issued by the Climate Prediction Center valid from October 22-26 is calling for a high likelihood of above normal temperatures...along with a better chance for above normal precipitation especially across Upper Michigan. If October mean temperatures end up above normal...it would be the eleventh consecutive month of above normal temperatures..a string started in December 2023. .NEXT ISSUANCE DATE: This product will be updated Thursday October 24, 2024. .RELATED WEB SITES: Additional information on current drought conditions may be found at the following web addresses: US Drought Monitor: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu US Drought Information System: https://www.drought.gov NOAA Drought Page: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought Additional water and river information: NWS Office of Water Prediction (OWP): https://water.noaa.gov US Geological Survey (USGS): https://water.usgs.gov US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE): https://www.usace.army.mil .ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: The Drought Monitor is a multi-agency effort involving the National Weather Service and National Centers for Environmental Information, the USDA, state and regional center climatologists and the National Drought Mitigation Center. Information for this statement has been gathered from NWS and FAA observation sites, state cooperative extension services, the USDA, USACE and USGS. .CONTACT INFORMATION: If you have questions or comments about this Drought Information Statement, please contact: National Weather Service 8800 Passenheim Road Gaylord, MI 49735 Phone...989-731-3384 w-apx.webmaster@noaa.gov $$ JPB