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AXUS73 KAPX 211850
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MIC001-007-011-019-039-051-055-069-079-089-101-113-119-129-135-
141-143-165-281200-

Drought Information Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
150 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025

...Severe Drought Conditions Linger Across Parts of Northeast
Lower Michigan...

.SYNOPSIS: Moderate and Severe drought coverage has not changed
across northern Lower Michigan since last week.

.DROUGHT INTENSITY AND EXTENT: The following description of
northern Michigan drought conditions is based on the most recent
U.S. Drought Monitor published on February 20, 2025.

Drought Category D2...Severe Drought: Crop or pasture losses
likely... water shortages common. Areas included in drought
category D2 include Oscoda...Alcona...Roscommon...Ogemaw...
Iosco...Gladwin...and Arenac counties in northern Lower Michigan.
This represents no change in conditions over the previous week.

Drought Category D1...Moderate Drought: Some damage to crops and
pastures...streams or wells low...some water shortages developing
or imminent. Areas included in drought category D1 include
Presque Isle...Leelanau...Montmorency...Alpena...Benzie...Grand
Traverse...Kalkaska...Crawford...Manistee... Wexford...and
Missaukee counties in northern Lower Michigan.

.HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS: Precipitation through the summer months
(June-August) was generally from 75 to 125 percent of normal.
Across eastern Upper Michigan June was the wettest month of the
summer with precipitation 150 to 200+ percent of normal...things
started to dry out in July with below normal rainfall though most
areas received at least 50 percent of normal precipitation. A
similar trend was noted in August. Precipitation during the fall
months (September-November) started out below normal for
September (less than 50 percent of normal with some areas less
than 25 percent of normal) and October (25 to 75 percent of
normal). But November precipitation was above normal in most
locations...more than 200 percent of normal across northern
Chippewa county and in the higher terrain of eastern Antrim/
western Otsego/northwest Kalkaska counties mainly due to a
significant lake effect snow event during Thanksgiving weekend.

December precipitation was above normal in most areas...with the
heaviest precipitation (150-200+ percent of normal) concentrated
over the typical northwest flow lake effect snow areas. Traverse
City recorded its second snowiest December on record (48.2
inches)...Gaylord its fourth snowiest December (57.9 inches)...
and Houghton Lake its 9th snowiest (23.4 inches). January 2025
precipitation was largely dependent on location relative to the
Lake Superior and Lake Michigan snowbelt areas. Precipitation
departures of 150-200 percent of normal occurred mainly between
Grand Traverse Bay and the I-75 corridor in northwest Lower
Michigan (bounded roughly by the M-68 and M-72 corridors to the
north and south respectively)...the typical Lake Michigan snow
belt regions. Precipitation departures of 100-125 percent of
normal have occurred over northern Chippewa county adjacent to
Whitefish Bay. Sault Ste. Marie recorded their second snowiest
January on record (58.4 inches).

Through the first three weeks of February...total seasonal
snowfall is running 125 to 175 percent of normal across northern
Michigan. Sault Ste. Marie...Gaylord...Traverse City...and
Houghton Lake have all exceeded their normal seasonal snowfall
total. Liquid equivalent precipitation so far this month is
running above normal across northern Lower...with 200 to 300
percent of normal across interior northern Lower from M-55 north
to M-32. Across eastern Upper above normal (100-150 percent of
normal) precipitation has occurred around the west side of
Whitefish Bay...with precipitation a bit below normal across
eastern portions of Mackinac and Chippewa counties. Snow water
equivalent in the snow pack across eastern Upper Michigan is
generally 2 to 6 inches...except 6 to 10 inches around the west
side of Whitefish Bay. Across northern Lower snow water equivalent
ranges from 2 to 4 inches across northeast Lower...and 3 to 6
inches across northwest Lower with an area of 6 to 9 inch water
equivalents east of Grand Traverse Bay within the traditional Lake
Michigan snow belt.

Temperatures for the summer came out pretty much near normal; for
the fall months as a whole (September-November)...Sault Ste.
Marie recorded its warmest fall on record (+5.4 degrees) as did
Gaylord (+7.7 degrees). Second warmest falls on record occurred
at Pellston (+4.6 degrees) and Traverse City (+4.9 degrees)...
third warmest at Alpena (+4.3 degrees)...and ninth warmest at
Houghton Lake (+3.3 degrees).

December temperatures averaged from 1 to 3 degrees above normal...
a thirteenth consecutive month of above normal temperatures
dating back to December 2023. This occurred despite the abundant
snowfall...with a couple of thaws (December 7th-10th/15th-17th/
26th-30th) helping push temperatures above normal. All of this
warmth throughout the year added up to the warmest calendar year
on record at five of the main climatological stations...Houghton
Lake ended up tying their record warmest year. Mean temperatures
for January 2025 ended up with 1 to 2 degrees either side of
normal...this despite of a particularly cold spell from the
19th-24th of January.

So far for February temperatures are around 1 to 4 degrees below
normal...in large part to a two week cold spell during the last
two weeks.

Soil moisture is near normal across all of northern Michigan.
Streamflows on northern Michigan rivers are below normal on the
Au Sable and Manistee Rivers...with record low streamflows for
this date on the Boardman River near Mayfield...and the Tobacco
River at Beaverton. Rivers are running near normal elsewhere with
fluctuations in river levels due to ice activity.

.SUMMARY OF IMPACTS: No known impacts at this time.

.LOCAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK: A period of much anticipated milder
weather will begin this weekend and continue through at least
midweek. Next significant chance of precipitation is expected on
Monday though some of the precipitation may fall as rain.

The 6 to 10 day outlook issued by the Climate Prediction Center
valid for the period of February 26-March 2 2025 is leaning
toward below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.

The seasonal drought outlook which is valid from March through
May 2025 is predicting a slow improvement in drought conditions
heading during Spring. It is anticipated that areas currently in
the D2 drought category will improve to at least the D1
category...aided by snowpack melting.

.NEXT ISSUANCE DATE: This product will be updated Thursday
February 27, 2025. This will coincide with the issuance of the
second spring flood outlook for northern Michigan.

.RELATED WEB SITES: Additional information on current drought
conditions may be found at the following web addresses:

US Drought Monitor: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu
US Drought Information System: https://www.drought.gov
NOAA Drought Page: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

Additional water and river information:

NWS Office of Water Prediction (OWP): https://water.noaa.gov
US Geological Survey (USGS): https://water.usgs.gov
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE): https://www.usace.army.mil

.ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: The Drought Monitor is a multi-agency effort
involving the National Weather Service and National Centers for
Environmental Information, the USDA, state and regional center
climatologists and the National Drought Mitigation Center.
Information for this statement has been gathered from NWS and FAA
observation sites, state cooperative extension services, the
USDA, USACE and USGS.

.CONTACT INFORMATION: If you have questions or comments about
this Drought Information Statement, please contact:

National Weather Service
8800 Passenheim Road
Gaylord, MI 49735
Phone...989-731-3384
w-apx.webmaster@noaa.gov

$$

JPB