Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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AXUS73 KAPX 301845
DGTAPX
MIC001-007-011-019-039-051-055-069-079-089-101-113-119-129-135-
141-143-165-061800-

Drought Information Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
145 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2025

...Improving Drought Conditions Across Parts of Northern Lower
Michigan...

.SYNOPSIS: Severe drought coverage has decreased across northwest
Lower Michigan during the month of January in large part due to
persistent lake induced precipitation. Pockets of severe drought
persist across parts of northeast Lower Michigan.

.DROUGHT INTENSITY AND EXTENT: The following description of
northern Michigan drought conditions is based on the most recent
U.S. Drought Monitor published on January 30, 2025.

Drought Category D2...Severe Drought: Crop or pasture losses
likely...water shortages common. Areas included in drought
category D2 include Montmorency...Alpena...Crawford...Oscoda...
Alcona...Roscommon...Ogemaw...Iosco... Gladwin...and Arenac
counties in northern Lower Michigan. This represents the removal
of D2 conditions west of the I-75 corridor in northern Lower
Michigan.

Drought Category D1...Moderate Drought: Some damage to crops and
pastures...streams or wells low...some water shortages developing
or imminent. Areas included in drought category D1 include
Presque Isle...Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse...Kalkaska...
Manistee... Wexford...and Missaukee counties in northern Lower
Michigan.

.HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS: Precipitation through the summer months
(June-August) was generally from 75 to 125 percent of normal.
Across eastern Upper Michigan June was the wettest month of the
summer with precipitation 150 to 200+ percent of normal...things
started to dry out in July with below normal rainfall though most
areas received at least 50 percent of normal precipitation. A
similar trend was noted in August. Precipitation during the fall
months (September-November) started out below normal for
September (less than 50 percent of normal with some areas less
than 25 percent of normal) and October (25 to 75 percent of
normal). But November precipitation was above normal in most
locations...more than 200 percent of normal across northern
Chippewa county and in the higher terrain of eastern Antrim/
western Otsego/northwest Kalkaska counties mainly due to a
significant lake effect snow event during Thanksgiving weekend.

December precipitation was above normal in most areas...with the
heaviest precipitation (150-200+ percent of normal) concentrated
over the typical northwest flow lake effect snow areas. Traverse
City recorded its second snowiest December on record (48.2
inches)...Gaylord its fourth snowiest December (57.9 inches)...and
Houghton Lake its 9th snowiest (23.4 inches).

For January...the precipitation distribution has largely been
defined by location relative to the Lake Superior and Lake
Michigan snowbelt areas. Precipitation departures of 150-200
percent of normal occurred mainly between Grand Traverse Bay and
the I-75 corridor in northwest Lower Michigan (bounded roughly by
the M-68 and M-72 corridors to the north and south respectively).
Precipitation departures of 100-125 percent of normal have
occurred over northern Chippewa county adjacent to Whitefish Bay.
Precipitation was only 25-50 percent of normal from far eastern
Presque Isle county south into Iosco/southeast Ogemaw counties...
and less than 25 percent of normal across parts of Gladwin/Arenac
counties.

Temperatures for the summer came out pretty much near normal; for
the fall months as a whole (September-November)...Sault Ste.
Marie recorded its warmest fall on record (+5.4 degrees) as did
Gaylord (+7.7 degrees). Second warmest falls on record occurred
at Pellston (+4.6 degrees) and Traverse City (+4.9 degrees)...
third warmest at Alpena (+4.3 degrees)...and ninth warmest at
Houghton Lake (+3.3 degrees). December temperatures averaged from
1 to 3 degrees above normal...a thirteenth consecutive month of
above normal temperatures dating back to December 2023. This
occurred despite the abundant snowfall...with a couple of thaws
(December 7th-10th/15th-17th/26th-30th) helping push temperatures
above normal. All of this warmth throughout the year added up to
the warmest calendar year on record at five of the main
climatological stations...Houghton Lake ended up tying the record
warmest year.

Mean temperatures for the month of January have been generally
near to about 2 degrees below normal for the most part...as
spells of colder weather were balanced by milder periods.

Soil moisture is near normal across eastern Upper and far northern
Lower Michigan (north of M-32) and in the 20th to 30th percentile
elsewhere. Streamflows on northern Michigan rivers are below normal
at some gaging stations in the Au Sable and Manistee River basins...
and near normal elsewhere with fluctuations in river levels due to
ice activity.

.SUMMARY OF IMPACTS: No known impacts at this time.

.LOCAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK: A period of above normal temperatures are
expected through Friday January 31st with a brief cold shot for
Saturday. Temperatures are forecast to rebound once again on Sunday
and Monday before another push of colder air arrives on Tuesday
February 4th. A period of snow or rain is expected this weekend.

The 6 to 10 day outlook issued by the Climate Prediction Center
valid for the period of February 4-8 is calling for near normal
temperatures...and higher probabilities for above normal
precipitation.

The seasonal drought outlook which is valid from February through
April 2025 is predicting a slow improvement in drought conditions
heading into late winter and the first month of Spring. It is
anticipated that areas currently in the D2 drought category will
improve to at least the D1 category during Spring.

.NEXT ISSUANCE DATE: This product will be updated Thursday
February 6, 2025.

.RELATED WEB SITES: Additional information on current drought
conditions may be found at the following web addresses:

US Drought Monitor: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu
US Drought Information System: https://www.drought.gov
NOAA Drought Page: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

Additional water and river information:

NWS Office of Water Prediction (OWP): https://water.noaa.gov
US Geological Survey (USGS): https://water.usgs.gov
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE): https://www.usace.army.mil

.ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: The Drought Monitor is a multi-agency effort
involving the National Weather Service and National Centers for
Environmental Information, the USDA, state and regional center
climatologists and the National Drought Mitigation Center.
Information for this statement has been gathered from NWS and FAA
observation sites, state cooperative extension services, the
USDA, USACE and USGS.

.CONTACT INFORMATION: If you have questions or comments about
this Drought Information Statement, please contact:

National Weather Service
8800 Passenheim Road
Gaylord, MI 49735
Phone...989-731-3384
w-apx.webmaster@noaa.gov

$$

JPB