Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
239 AXUS73 KAPX 301845 DGTAPX MIC001-007-011-019-039-051-055-069-079-089-101-113-119-129-135- 141-143-165-061800- Drought Information Statement National Weather Service Gaylord MI 145 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2025 ...Improving Drought Conditions Across Parts of Northern Lower Michigan... .SYNOPSIS: Severe drought coverage has decreased across northwest Lower Michigan during the month of January in large part due to persistent lake induced precipitation. Pockets of severe drought persist across parts of northeast Lower Michigan. .DROUGHT INTENSITY AND EXTENT: The following description of northern Michigan drought conditions is based on the most recent U.S. Drought Monitor published on January 30, 2025. Drought Category D2...Severe Drought: Crop or pasture losses likely...water shortages common. Areas included in drought category D2 include Montmorency...Alpena...Crawford...Oscoda... Alcona...Roscommon...Ogemaw...Iosco... Gladwin...and Arenac counties in northern Lower Michigan. This represents the removal of D2 conditions west of the I-75 corridor in northern Lower Michigan. Drought Category D1...Moderate Drought: Some damage to crops and pastures...streams or wells low...some water shortages developing or imminent. Areas included in drought category D1 include Presque Isle...Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse...Kalkaska... Manistee... Wexford...and Missaukee counties in northern Lower Michigan. .HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS: Precipitation through the summer months (June-August) was generally from 75 to 125 percent of normal. Across eastern Upper Michigan June was the wettest month of the summer with precipitation 150 to 200+ percent of normal...things started to dry out in July with below normal rainfall though most areas received at least 50 percent of normal precipitation. A similar trend was noted in August. Precipitation during the fall months (September-November) started out below normal for September (less than 50 percent of normal with some areas less than 25 percent of normal) and October (25 to 75 percent of normal). But November precipitation was above normal in most locations...more than 200 percent of normal across northern Chippewa county and in the higher terrain of eastern Antrim/ western Otsego/northwest Kalkaska counties mainly due to a significant lake effect snow event during Thanksgiving weekend. December precipitation was above normal in most areas...with the heaviest precipitation (150-200+ percent of normal) concentrated over the typical northwest flow lake effect snow areas. Traverse City recorded its second snowiest December on record (48.2 inches)...Gaylord its fourth snowiest December (57.9 inches)...and Houghton Lake its 9th snowiest (23.4 inches). For January...the precipitation distribution has largely been defined by location relative to the Lake Superior and Lake Michigan snowbelt areas. Precipitation departures of 150-200 percent of normal occurred mainly between Grand Traverse Bay and the I-75 corridor in northwest Lower Michigan (bounded roughly by the M-68 and M-72 corridors to the north and south respectively). Precipitation departures of 100-125 percent of normal have occurred over northern Chippewa county adjacent to Whitefish Bay. Precipitation was only 25-50 percent of normal from far eastern Presque Isle county south into Iosco/southeast Ogemaw counties... and less than 25 percent of normal across parts of Gladwin/Arenac counties. Temperatures for the summer came out pretty much near normal; for the fall months as a whole (September-November)...Sault Ste. Marie recorded its warmest fall on record (+5.4 degrees) as did Gaylord (+7.7 degrees). Second warmest falls on record occurred at Pellston (+4.6 degrees) and Traverse City (+4.9 degrees)... third warmest at Alpena (+4.3 degrees)...and ninth warmest at Houghton Lake (+3.3 degrees). December temperatures averaged from 1 to 3 degrees above normal...a thirteenth consecutive month of above normal temperatures dating back to December 2023. This occurred despite the abundant snowfall...with a couple of thaws (December 7th-10th/15th-17th/26th-30th) helping push temperatures above normal. All of this warmth throughout the year added up to the warmest calendar year on record at five of the main climatological stations...Houghton Lake ended up tying the record warmest year. Mean temperatures for the month of January have been generally near to about 2 degrees below normal for the most part...as spells of colder weather were balanced by milder periods. Soil moisture is near normal across eastern Upper and far northern Lower Michigan (north of M-32) and in the 20th to 30th percentile elsewhere. Streamflows on northern Michigan rivers are below normal at some gaging stations in the Au Sable and Manistee River basins... and near normal elsewhere with fluctuations in river levels due to ice activity. .SUMMARY OF IMPACTS: No known impacts at this time. .LOCAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK: A period of above normal temperatures are expected through Friday January 31st with a brief cold shot for Saturday. Temperatures are forecast to rebound once again on Sunday and Monday before another push of colder air arrives on Tuesday February 4th. A period of snow or rain is expected this weekend. The 6 to 10 day outlook issued by the Climate Prediction Center valid for the period of February 4-8 is calling for near normal temperatures...and higher probabilities for above normal precipitation. The seasonal drought outlook which is valid from February through April 2025 is predicting a slow improvement in drought conditions heading into late winter and the first month of Spring. It is anticipated that areas currently in the D2 drought category will improve to at least the D1 category during Spring. .NEXT ISSUANCE DATE: This product will be updated Thursday February 6, 2025. .RELATED WEB SITES: Additional information on current drought conditions may be found at the following web addresses: US Drought Monitor: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu US Drought Information System: https://www.drought.gov NOAA Drought Page: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought Additional water and river information: NWS Office of Water Prediction (OWP): https://water.noaa.gov US Geological Survey (USGS): https://water.usgs.gov US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE): https://www.usace.army.mil .ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: The Drought Monitor is a multi-agency effort involving the National Weather Service and National Centers for Environmental Information, the USDA, state and regional center climatologists and the National Drought Mitigation Center. Information for this statement has been gathered from NWS and FAA observation sites, state cooperative extension services, the USDA, USACE and USGS. .CONTACT INFORMATION: If you have questions or comments about this Drought Information Statement, please contact: National Weather Service 8800 Passenheim Road Gaylord, MI 49735 Phone...989-731-3384 w-apx.webmaster@noaa.gov $$ JPB