459
AXUS73 KAPX 032108
DGTAPX
MIC033-097-102100-

Drought Information Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
508 PM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024

...Severe Drought Conditions Across Eastern Upper Michigan...

.SYNOPSIS: Persistent dry and warmer than normal temperatures have
resulted in Severe Drought conditions developing across eastern
Upper Michigan.

.Drought intensity and extent:
The following description of northern Michigan drought conditions
is based on the most recent U.S. Drought Monitor published on
October 3, 2024.

Drought Category D2...Severe Drought: Crop or pasture losses
likely...water shortages common. Areas included in drought
category D2 include Mackinac and Chippewa counties.

Drought Category D1...Moderate Drought: Some damage to crops and
pastures...streams or wells low...some water shortages developing
or imminent. Areas included in drought category D1 include
portions of the following counties: Manistee...Benzie...
Leelanau...Emmet...Cheboygan...Presque Isle...and Alpena.

.Hydrologic conditions: Precipitation through the summer months
(June-August) was generally from 75 to 125 percent of normal.
Across eastern Upper Michigan June was the wettest month of the
summer with precipitation 150-200+ percent of normal...things
started to dry out in July with below normal rainfall though most
areas received at least 50 percent of normal precipitation. A
similar trend was noted in August. Precipitation across all of
northern Michigan was below normal for September (less than 50
percent of normal with some areas less than 25 percent normal).

This was combined with warmer than normal temperatures heading
into fall. While temperatures for the summer came out pretty much
near normal...September ended up about 3 to 7 degrees above
normal. Both Sault Ste. Marie and Gaylord recorded their warmest
September on record.

The combined warmth and dryness has resulted in a drying of
topsoil across northern Michigan. Soil moisture across much of
Upper Michigan and from Grand Traverse to Little Traverse Bay in
northwest Lower Michigan is in the 10th percentile. Streamflows
are also running well below normal: streamflow on the Pine River
near Rudyard in western Chippewa county is in the 10th percentile...
as are many gaging locations in the Manistee...Au Sable...
Cheboygan...Rifle...and Tittabawassee river basins in northern
Lower Michigan. All time low streamflows for October 3 were
observed on the Platte River near Honor in Benzie county...the
Manistee River near Mesick (Hodenpyl Dam)...the Clam River at
Vogel Center in Missaukee county...and on the Au Sable River near
Curtisville (Alcona Dam) and near Au Sable (Foote Dam).

.SUMMARY OF IMPACTS:

No known impacts at this time.

.LOCAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK:

Precipitation is in the forecast this weekend with highest
probabilities north of the M-32 corridor where average rainfall
amounts of 0.25-0.50 inch are expected across Upper Michigan from
Saturday night through Monday morning. Beyond that there is a high
likelihood of continued warm and dry conditions on average in the
October 10-13 time frame. Thus drought conditions are expected to
persist over the next two weeks at a minimum.

.NEXT ISSUANCE DATE:

This product will be updated Thursday October 10.

.RELATED WEB SITES:

Additional information on current drought conditions may be found
at the following web addresses:
US Drought Monitor: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu
US Drought Information System: https://www.drought.gov
NOAA Drought Page: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

Additional water and river information:
NWS Office of Water Prediction (OWP): https://water.noaa.gov
US Geological Survey (USGS): https://water.usgs.gov
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE): https://www.usace.army.mil

.ACKNOWLEDGMENTS:

The Drought Monitor is a multi-agency effort involving the
National Weather Service and National Centers for Environmental
Information, the USDA, state and regional center climatologists
and the National Drought Mitigation Center. Information for this
statement has been gathered from NWS and FAA observation sites,
state cooperative extension services, the USDA, USACE and USGS.

.CONTACT INFORMATION:

If you have questions or comments about this Drought Information
Statement, please contact:

National Weather Service
8800 Passenheim Road
Gaylord, MI 49735
Phone...989-731-3384
w-apx.webmaster@noaa.gov

$$

JPB