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MIC001-007-009-011-019-029-031-033-039-047-051-055-069-079-089-
097-101-113-119-129-135-137-141-143-165-241915-

Drought Information Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
307 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024

...Severe Drought Conditions Across Parts of Northern Michigan...

.SYNOPSIS: Persistent dry and warmer than normal temperatures
have resulted in Severe Drought conditions developing across most
of eastern Upper Michigan and a small portion of northwest Lower
Michigan.

.DROUGHT INTENSITY AND EXTENT: The following description of
northern Michigan drought conditions is based on the most recent
U.S. Drought Monitor published on October 17, 2024.

Drought Category D2...Severe Drought: Crop or pasture losses
likely...water shortages common. Areas included in drought
category D2 include Mackinac and Chippewa counties in eastern
Upper Michigan...and Manistee...Benzie...Leelanau...Antrim...
Charlevoix...Emmet...and Cheboygan counties in northwest Lower
Michigan. This is an expansion of D2 drought into the Straits of
Mackinac.

Drought Category D1...Moderate Drought: Some damage to crops and
pastures...streams or wells low...some water shortages developing
or imminent. Areas included in drought category D1 include the
following counties: Presque Isle...Otsego...Montmorency...
Alpena...Grand Traverse...Kalkaska...Crawford...Oscoda...Alcona...
Wexford...Missaukee...Roscommon...Ogemaw...Iosco...Gladwin...and
Arenac. This is an expansion of D1 drought across the remainder of
northern Lower Michigan.

.HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS: Precipitation through the summer months
(June- August) was generally from 75 to 125 percent of normal.
Across eastern Upper Michigan June was the wettest month of the
summer with precipitation 150-200+ percent of normal...things
started to dry out in July with below normal rainfall though most
areas received at least 50 percent of normal precipitation. A
similar trend was noted in August. Precipitation across all of
northern Michigan was below normal for September (less than 50
percent of normal with some areas less than 25 percent normal).

So far for the first half of October...precipitation has been less
than 25 percent of normal for most areas north of a Frankfort to
Standish line...and from 25 to 50 percent of normal elsewhere.

Temperatures for the summer came out pretty much near normal...
September ended up about 3 to 7 degrees above normal. Both Sault
Ste. Marie and Gaylord recorded their warmest September on
record. Temperatures in October started out 1 to 3 degrees above
normal for the first ten days of the month...but a spell of cooler
weather from October 12-16 has brought average temperatures down
to within one degree of normal.

The combined warmth and dryness has resulted in a drying of
topsoil across northern Michigan. Soil moisture across much of
eastern Upper Michigan is below the 5th percentile...as well as
along and west of the US-131 corridor in northern Lower Michigan.
Streamflows are also running well below normal for mid October:
gaging stations reporting record low streamflows for October 17th
are as follows:

  Pine River near Rudyard
  Platte River at Honor
  Boardman River near Mayfield
  Manistee River near Mesick (Hodenpyl Dam)
  Manistee River near Wellston (Tippy Dam)
  South Branch Au Sable River near Luzerne
  Au Sable River near Au Sable

.SUMMARY OF IMPACTS: No known impacts at this time.

.LOCAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK: Warmer than normal temperatures are
expected Friday...with highs in the 60s (normal highs are in the
mid- upper 50s) and low relative humidity values increasing fire
danger. A slow warming trend will continue through the weekend and
into early next week with little precipitation expected until
Tuesday where there is some likelihood of parts of northwest Lower
and eastern Upper Michigan picking up 0.10-0.25 inch of rainfall
on average.

The 6 to 10 day outlook issued by the Climate Prediction Center
valid from October 22-26 is calling for a high likelihood of
above normal temperatures...along with a better chance for above
normal precipitation especially across Upper Michigan.

If October mean temperatures end up above normal...it would be the
eleventh consecutive month of above normal temperatures..a string
started in December 2023.

.NEXT ISSUANCE DATE: This product will be updated Thursday
October 24, 2024.

.RELATED WEB SITES: Additional information on current drought
conditions may be found at the following web addresses:

US Drought Monitor: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu
US Drought Information System: https://www.drought.gov
NOAA Drought Page: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

Additional water and river information:

NWS Office of Water Prediction (OWP): https://water.noaa.gov
US Geological Survey (USGS): https://water.usgs.gov
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE): https://www.usace.army.mil

.ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: The Drought Monitor is a multi-agency effort
involving the National Weather Service and National Centers for
Environmental Information, the USDA, state and regional center
climatologists and the National Drought Mitigation Center.
Information for this statement has been gathered from NWS and FAA
observation sites, state cooperative extension services, the USDA,
USACE and USGS.

.CONTACT INFORMATION: If you have questions or comments about
this Drought Information Statement, please contact:

National Weather Service
8800 Passenheim Road
Gaylord, MI 49735
Phone...989-731-3384
w-apx.webmaster@noaa.gov

$$

JPB