679
FXUS63 KAPX 150335
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1135 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chilly lows possible tonight

- Active weather for midweek and beyond

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1027 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Skies clearing out and winds starting to die off this evening, with
high pressure trying to nose its way in...setting the stage for good
radiational cooling, especially west of I-75...though winds are
starting to trend down a bit east of I-75 as well. Dewpoints
generally in the lower 40s to around 40; think they could come down
a few more degrees overnight, especially where less showers occurred
today and where it was able to clear out/mix out a bit this
afternoon. Looking at temp-dewpoint spreads of 5 or less across
interior northern Lower where we saw showers/drizzle right up until
about 0z or so, and clouds only starting to clear out in the last
couple hours...am concerned we will end up with more fog than
previously anticipated (and this idea would keep temps a bit warmer
too). Have adjusted overnight temps accordingly, and have also
introduced patchy fog in the forecast to get that idea in there for
tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 436 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Troughing currently swinging over the Great Lakes will lift to the
northeast tonight as the surface response follows suit with the cold
front sliding across the Mid-Atlantic/New England. The north end of
surface high pressure noses into the region on Monday before
additional troughing rotates in, bringing our next system into the
area on Tuesday. This system will exit east Wednesday before a
second, and seasonably impressive, system follows right on its heels
Wednesday night into Thursday.

Some gee-wiz on the Wednesday night/Thursday system: Latest
deterministic and ensemble guidance drops the associated surface
cyclone near 990mb as it traverses the Great Lakes -- which would be
very rare for the middle/end of June. In fact, latest forecasts put
this cyclone outside the return interval for CFSR climatology --
meaning that over a 3 week period centered on Thursday`s date (June
18), reanalysises during that timeframe over the 30 year climate
period from 1979-2009 did not have a cyclone as low as what is
forecast for the Great Lakes. Additionally, over 70 percent of North
American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) members are forecasting
these extreme values, indicating relatively high confidence at a 3+
day lead time for such a system to materialize.

Forecast Details:

Ongoing light showers across parts of northern Michigan will end
this evening as cloud cover is expected to diminish with time
tonight. There is uncertainty in how cool low temperatures get
tonight depending on the timing of cloud cover clearing, but current
confidence is that mostly clear skies will materialize overnight and
allow for a period of efficient radiational cooling -- potentially
dropping lows into the upper 30s to low 40s for typical cool spots
of interior northern Michigan. Cool temperatures a few degrees below
average will stick around this week with continued troughing
overhead.

After showers end this evening, rain chances return to the eastern
U.P. Monday afternoon and evening. More widespread rainfall enters
the picture as the first system moves in Tuesday, although rainfall
amounts are expected to remain light. More substantial steady rain
is likely later Wednesday into Thursday as the aforementioned
anomalous cyclone works across the region, along with gusty
winds.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1133 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

VFR conditions through this morning under mostly clear to partly
cloudy skies. Likely to see some high based cumulus develop
later in the morning and afternoon, especially across KCIU. Some
of these cu may become deep and organized enough to produce a
few showers (isolated thunder?) across eastern upper Michigan in
the afternoon. Dry conditions with more VFR conditions across
the remainder of the taf locations. West to southwest winds
becoming a bit gusty at times this afternoon, becoming light
again tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FEF
DISCUSSION...DJC
AVIATION...MSB