237
FXUS63 KAPX 111045
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
645 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Brisk today as temperatures drop back into the 20s and 30s
  through the day.

- Rain (and possible thunder) chances returning toward the end
  of this week with potential for well above normal warmth
  returning as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

...Brisk and turning much colder today...

Low pressure center is making its way eastward thru SE Ontario early
this morning. Associated cold front is moving thru Western Upper
Michigan and NW Wisconsin attm...with our entire CWA still firmly
within the warm sector ahead of it. Temps are still mainly in the
40s and 50s across our entire CWA attm...with only some dense cirrus
overhead.

As we head into today...our mild wx will rapidly change as the cold
front sweeps thru our CWA from NW to SE this morning. Strong CAA
will commence immediately behind the cold front...as low level winds
further strengthen in the wake of the cold front. Airmass ahead of
and behind the cold front is rather dry...so chances of precip will
be very limited...with mainly an increase in cloud cover resulting
from FROPA. Any chances of precip associated with this system will
be confined to Eastern Upper Michigan during the morning hours.
Precip type will be a mix of rain and snow...with little to no new
snow accumulation expected.

Temps will steadily fall this morning as CAA takes place. Once the
cold air arrives...temps will generally hold steady ranging from the
mid to upper 20s across Eastern Upper and the Straits area to the
lower 40s near Saginaw Bay.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Pattern Synopsis / Forecast:

Quick zonal flow regime will be forced north and east of the region
later this week as an impressive negative tilting trough ejects into
the Plains, promoting explosive surface cyclogenesis, and inciting
an impressive amplification of upper level ridging across the Great
Lakes region. Broadening surface low pressure will move to our
northwest as it matures and closes off, putting northern lower and
eastern upper Michigan on the warmer side of the system. Result will
be a return of well above normal warmth for the weekend, accompanied
by potential for a round of LLJ driven showers and thunder Friday
night into Saturday. More seasonable air will eventually filter into
the region by the end of the weekend into next week, keeping up a
standard March theme of temperature see-sawing back and forth from
warmth and cool.

Primary Forecast Points:

Temps: 30s and 40s Wednesday, warming into the 40s-50s Thursday
(likely nearing or exceeding 60 in parts of northern lower away from
Lake Huron with SE flow). Warming well into the 50s north, and well
into the 60s in northern lower Friday and Saturday (outside shot of
some 70s?), cooling back to the 30s and 40s Sunday and through the
remainder of the forecast period.

Precip Chances: Dry conditions hold through Friday, before a warm
front surges north and brings a round of showers and perhaps some
thunder Friday night into Saturday. Transient nature of this rain
will lead to most areas probably picking up 0.10-0.20" of rain at
most. Aggressive dry slotting probably keeps things more dry than
not Saturday. Backside moisture and cold air depth aloft will be
lacking as colder air builds into the region Sunday, so not
anticipating much of a snow shower threat in the wake of the system
through the remainder of the forecast period.

Super In-Depth Analysis For those Who REALLY Like Reading:

Not a whole lot to address in the weather department Wednesday into
Thursday... some pesky cloud cover on Wednesday will eventually
scour its way out of the region, with southerly return flow building
ahead of the well-advertised large system set to impact much of the
nation through the course of the week. Some caveats to be considered
at this juncture for that upcoming system- moisture concentration
being of the utmost importance. Current cursory glance at water
vapor imagery showcases a well-developed cyclone off the coast of
the Carolinas (it was responsible for some higher end severe weather
across central Florida today). Its attendant cold frontal boundary
has actually surged south and east into the Bahamas, Cuba, and the
southern Yucatan, with an absurd amount of dry air over the Gulf.

You`re probably wondering... Mr. Long Term forecaster... why in the
name of Dan Campbell do I care about this in northern Michigan?
Well... our moisture source for this upcoming system is the Gulf...
and considering guidance`s poor handling of this drier air (up until
recent runs) over that moisture source (current buoys over the Gulf
have surface dewpoints in the low-to-mid 40s, which is absurdly dry
for this time of year), this makes me tend to believe that there may
not be as much moisture to contend with this system as previously
thought, and thus lesser potential for a larger, beefier rain
shield. Moisture is going to have to reload from the Caribbean into
the Gulf before we actually start to get that deeper moisture plume
into the southern US. This will eventually be achieved once surface
high pressure moves east of Florida and southerly return flow builds
into the Gulf, drawing in that deeper tropical moisture. Of course,
up here, it won`t be that tropical once that resultant moisture
plume reaches us, though dewpoints in the 40s near 50 this weekend
will still be palpable considering we really haven`t had anything
that "robust" since early November.

So what to expect after all of that? Well, with surface airmass
originating from the southwest, where robust winds will be driving a
wildfire threat along with pre-greenup dust storms across New
Mexico, Texas, and Oklahoma, it`s possible that we have a bit of a
haze in the sky during any breaks in the clouds Friday and Saturday
from those particulate lofted well into the atmosphere and
transported up here. Furthermore, the limited moisture will leave us
with a relatively narrow window for showers and potential thunder
Friday night into Saturday... to the point that I wouldn`t be
shocked to see most areas see a light 0.10-0.20" of rainfall at most
(higher amounts in any storms, of course). Recently, a phenomenon
was observed across the Ohio Valley where lighter rainfall that
overlapped a Plains dust plume, producing "dirty rain"... where rain
actually left thick dirt spots once it dried off surfaces, such as
vehicles... and it would not be surprising whatsoever for that to
materialize across much of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes,
including northern Michigan.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

A strong cold front will continue to sweep thru Northern
Michigan this morning...ushering much colder air into our
region. Surface winds will switch around to the N/NW this
morning and strengthen to 20 to 30 kts with some higher gusts
in the wake of the cold front. MVFR/low VFR cigs will develop
across our area today...with little in the way of precip
expected. Solid VFR conditions will return to our area tonight
as winds become light and variable with high pressure building
into Michigan.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ346-
     349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for LHZ347-
     348.
     Gale Warning until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ347-348.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ323-
     344>346.
     Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...MLR