347
FXUS63 KAPX 021711
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
111 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather with seasonable temperatures.

- Varying degrees of Canadian wildfire smoke to impact the area
  the next couple days.

- Potential shower/ storm chances next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 224 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Surface high pressure will keep things dry and quiet across
northern Michigan through the weekend. Expect mostly sunny
skies, though wildfire smoke drifting south from Canada will
continue to filter sunshine, bringing some noticeable haze and
potential reduced visibilities. The Michigan Department of
Environmental Quality has extended the Air Quality Advisory
through the day due to these elevated particulate levels.

Temperatures will trend warmer with highs reaching the upper
70s to low 80s (warmer near Lake Huron) today, with low to mid
80s Sunday. Winds will become variable/ calm tonight under
mostly clear skies, setting the stage for another cool night
with lows dipping into the upper 40s to low 50s, especially
interior locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 224 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Dry weather is expected to continue as the upper-level ridge
slowly weakens. Temperatures will gradually warm through early
next week, with highs generally in the low to mid 80s and lows
mainly in the 50s and 60s. By midweek, a series of disturbances
could bring chances of precipitation, but confidence in
precipitation is low due to weak forcing and a southeast surface
wind component that may limit moisture return. Many areas may
likely stay dry or see only isolated showers. Toward the end of
the week and into next weekend precipitation chances increase,
likely leading to scattered to widespread showers/ storms.
Temperatures look to stay near or slightly above normal with
humidity levels increasing once again.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 111 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Stout area of Canadian surface high pressure remains in firm
control across northern lower and eastern upper Michigan.
Minimal cloud cover expected over the next 18 hours, with light
winds (some of which are generated by lake breezes. Normally a
recipe for crystal clear skies, but that is not the case. Thick
plume of Canadian wildfire smoke pivoting overhead, and with
lots of FU and HZ overhead, has lowered VSBYs to 6SM in several
places. Anticipating this plume remains confined aloft for the
rest of the daytime hours, before HZ becomes concentrated in the
low levels with nocturnal inversions materializing. As such,
anticipating the usual FG problem sites (MBL and perhaps PLN) to
drop to MVFR, perhaps even IFR, later tonight before VSBYs
improve back to VFR with time Sunday morning.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...HAD