137
FXUS63 KAPX 032008
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
408 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated Fire Danger Monday in place afternoon.

- Showers continue through this evening, returning again later
  Monday into Tuesday.

- Much cooler temperatures and additional frost/freeze concerns
  return Tuesday through the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 408 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Ridging continues to slide east of the region today as shortwave
troughing works overhead. The associated weak surface response will
also trek east tonight as much more expansive troughing punches over
the Great Lakes later Monday and remains draped across the region
into next weekend. A stronger surface cyclone looks to progress to
our north across Ontario and over Hudson Bay, swinging the attendant
cold front across northern Michigan Monday evening/Monday night.
High pressure looks to build to our west behind this, nosing into
the region through the middle of next week before additional waves
embedded in the main flow look to rotate through late next week.

Forecast Details:

Primary forecast concern looks ahead to Monday with Elevated Fire
Danger in place. Widespread RHs in the 25-35 percent range across
most interior areas from late morning into early evening will
combine with sustained south to southwest winds of 15-25 mph and
gusts to 25-40 mph at times, raising concerns for the potential of
quick-spreading fires with any fine fuels that are able to quickly
dry from rainfall today. Please see the latest Fire Weather Planning
Discussion for additional details.

Otherwise, showers will continue at times across northern Michigan
through this evening, eventually ending overnight. A brief break in
rain chances is in store Monday morning and early afternoon as
aforementioned south/southwest flow helps advect a much warmer
airmass northward, helping temperatures climb well into the 60s and
low 70s by the afternoon. Increasing clouds are expected through the
day as rain chances work back in later in the afternoon and evening
along and ahead of the aforementioned front. A few thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out.

Much cooler temperatures move in behind the front Tuesday through
the rest of the week. Highs ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s
are anticipated most days heading into next weekend with
frost/freeze potential each night. Depending on winds and cloud
cover, lows could dip well into the 20s again some nights next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 127 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

Area of showers moving through...think these will become focused
between MBL/TVC this afternoon and could have some TSRA.
Otherwise...skies may try to scatter out this afternoon with some
afternoon cu possible, though...bases for these could be as low as
2500ft, but otherwise expecting VFR cigs/visbys. SHRA move out after
01-03z tonight; fog possible, esp at CIU, APN, and MBL, though not
impossible elsewhere...with high clouds trying to drift in after 9z
or so; VFR cigs should otherwise hold thru 18z taf period, though.
Winds generally turning to S/SW this afternoon 10-15kts gusting
toward 20kts...to diminish after dark with slight wind shift
dropping in but fading. CIU/PLN/TVC/MBL could go more VRB at
times...and think there could be some LLWS in a few spots this
evening. All areas should turn to S and SW thru the morning and
increase to 10-20kts gusting 20-30kts.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     LHZ345>347.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DJC
AVIATION...FEF