425
FXUS63 KAPX 152226
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
626 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoke/haze through Friday

- Shower/storm chances return Friday-Saturday, locally heavy
  rain possible Fri night

- Cooler next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

In the near term, a narrow ridge of high pressure extends from
southern Manitoba toward eastern WI. Nw low- and mid-level flow
continues into the northern lakes east of this high, and well in
advance of 500mb ridging in the plains. Lengthy band of
confluent mid-level winds is contributing to mid clouds and a
healthy amount of virga. A chance for a sprinkle is still
mentioned in northern areas into late afternoon. But the main
immediate concern is the widespread smoke steadily encroaching
on northern MI from n to s. Vsbys of 3/4-2SM are common north of
M-72, 3-5SM to the south.

The smoke seems likely to persist into Friday. Another burst of
better smoke is working south toward Lk Superior, and this
should contribute in part to a lousy Thursday from a smoke/air
quality standpoint. Surface winds relax a bit Friday, with an
eventual easterly breeze developing. But that seems unlikely to
be enough to seriously usher smoke out of the region.

Sensible wx other than smoke is minimal into Thursday. Some
models try to pop a few showers in central WI tonight, extending
e and ese-ward from the MSP area. This is just south of the
surface ridge axis. But this activity struggles to work across
Lake MI overnight, and even if it does, it is most likely to do
so to our south. A more prominent shortwave trof is still
progged to cross the northern lakes Saturday, increasing forcing
and moisture ahead of it. A broad area of MlCape values over 1k
J/kg develops Friday in the western lakes, upstream of us
initially. But that will help feed activity moving into our
area. After an initial chance for showers, perhaps a rumble of
thunder Friday, showers and storms become more likely Fri night
into Saturday. Locally heavy rain is possible, especially Fri
night, with isolated rain totals in excess of an inch.

Still looks like we dry out for a bit to close out the weekend,
before additional shortwave return showers Monday and beyond.
Temps will also cool to below normal levels by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Smoke will remain the main concern through the entirety of this
taf period. See little evidence for much improvement, with both
MVFR to IFR conditions expected from deep layer smoke, with
widespread vis restrictions expected to continue. Do expect at
least some fluctuations as pockets of more dense smoke pass
overhead, although timing of such remains very uncertain. Future
amendments to tafs more than anticipated. Light winds will
continue.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Dense Smoke Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ346>348.
     Dense Smoke Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ323-341-
     342-344-345.
     Dense Smoke Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...MSB