262
FXUS63 KAPX 151109
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
609 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue over the next several days.

- Active weather returns midweek with myriad precipitation types
  expected across northern Michigan.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

Split flow constituted with northern stream zonal flow remains
steadfast over the Great Lakes region, with a strong southern stream
wave over the southern Plains bottling up any moisture return from
the Gulf from advancing any farther north. As such, a series of
moisture starved northern stream waves will be forced through the
Great Lakes, bringing through what little moisture they can draw all
the way from the Pacific. Result will be rather mundane weather
through Monday... exceptions being some lingering freezing fog / fog
this morning that should quickly lift as the first of these moisture
starved waves zips through Lake Superior this morning. Just enough
forcing present to drum up a snow shower or two north of M-32...
especially across eastern upper... early this morning. Little
to no accumulation.

Temperatures today will feature quite the contrast... thick cloud
cover will stunt highs across the eastern Yoop and far northern
lower... probably struggling to get much past 35 in a lot of places.
Farther south, within a window of clearer skies, the warm sector of
the system may attempt to poke into Saginaw Bay and perhaps some
places south of M-72 pending sky trends. Certainly a tricky
forecast... with cloud cover likely being the difference between
someplace like Gladwin plateauing out at 45 or spiking well into the
50s. Notwithstanding... the trend of above normal temperatures is
expected to carry on. The next disturbance will be quick on the
heels for Monday... but with temps generally in the 40s (50s south),
this one will feature some light rain showers (perhaps a few
snowflakes in the morning while temps are in the 30s) as a cold
front passes through. Rainfall amounts look light, so hydro concerns
(outside of ice jams) remain muted through at least Tuesday.

The trend of moisture starved and minimal impact systems will come
to a halt as a potent Pacific wave crests a Plains ridge and sets
course for the Great Lakes as a prominent baroclinic zone sets up
essentially from Alberta to upstate New York (and thus, over
lower MI). Favorable jet dynamics support surface cyclogenesis
over the Plains with ample lift as a surface low moves into
Michigan. This wave will have a pretty solid slug of Pacific
moisture with it for a change, and surface high pressure over
the southeastern CONUS should lead to potential Gulf influences
as well by reinforcing return flow into the Great Lakes.
Considering the airmass in place will be marginal from a
temperature standpoint... anticipating precipitation that falls
from Tuesday evening through Thursday to be a winter weather
variety pack... with guidance`s latest trends supporting mainly
snow north of the Bridge, some form of snow / sleet / freezing
rain mix across far northern lower, and more of a freezing rain
/ rain mix south of M-72... and even some rumbles of thunder.

With current ensemble QPF trends generally ranging from roughly 0.60
to 1.25" Tue night - Thursday... concern does arise for each p-
type... but with persistent easterly flow (a wind direction that is
generally only warm at the dadgum equator and California)... any
underperformance with temperatures may lead to exponentially higher
impacts from this system wherever freezing rain can occur the
longest. As such, will have to watch this one closely because we are
still well within the range for wholesale forecast changes... but
the potential is there for someone to get a higher end impact wintry
mess around midweek.

Beyond this, guidance remains set on the trend with a southern
stream wave lifting into the southern Lakes from the southwest into
the early part of the weekend... which may lead to some fringe
impacts here, but this too will also be subject to change
considering it is 6-7 days out at this juncture.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 609 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

Patchy fog/ low stratus has developed over some terminals early
this morning. Higher-level clouds can be seen on Satellite
streaming in from the west across northern Michigan. Sites will
bounce around this morning contending with the patchy fog/ low
stratus, with CIU and perhaps PLN expected to get the worst of
it. Conditions look to improve to MVFR/ VFR by this afternoon
with CIU and PLN remaining at low end MVFR to IFR. Winds will
remain light AOB 10 knots or less.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HAD
AVIATION...NSC