363
FXUS63 KAPX 230006
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
806 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much cooler than normal temps linger into Saturday night, then
  gradual recovery. Best chance for frost appears to be Sat
  night.

- Rain chances expand into much of northern MI by Fri morning,
  exiting during the afternoon/evening.

- A few diurnal showers are possible this weekend, but most
  places will be dry thru the holiday weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

Pattern/synopsis: Primary upper low center is just north of
eastern Lk Superior, and is moving southward. Secondary
circulation center, evident in visible satellite imagery this
afternoon, is a bit north of YYZ. This is still associated with
the main surface low.

Forecast: Upper low swings south and then se-ward, ending up
over northern Lk Huron Fri morning. It shears out eastward on
Friday, with a substantial trof lingering back over OSC-PLN-ERY
by late afternoon. Deeper moisture has been edging eastward
today, with synoptic precip mostly confined to far se Chip Co,
and the ne lower MI coast near and south of Rogers City.
However, as the upper low approaches and especially departs,
deep moisture will be pushed back to the sw for a period. Clouds
and pops will be on the increase tonight in eastern upper MI,
and eventually far northern lower MI overnight. Before then,
main focus will continue to be near APN/Rogers. Around
0.10-0.15" of rain tonight in central and western Chippewa Co,
less elsewhere.

Friday will see the most extensive precip chances, with spotty
showers/light rain possible across most of northern MI. The far
south is the possible exception. Better moisture starts to
depart eastward as the afternoon proceeds, with precip
decreasing in the TVC area first. Progged QPF is around 0.10" in
parts of far eastern upper MI, less elsewhere.

Parts of nw lower, eventually migrating down toward HTL, will
see partial clearing early tonight. Clouds do fill back in from
the north late. May be a few mid 30s down by CAD/Lake City, but
winds are likely to stay up enough to limit frost potential.
Upper 30s to around 40f elsewhere. Friday, mainly cloudy...and
awfully cold for the Friday heading into Memorial Day weekend.
Upper 40s to lower 50s for highs.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

Upper low merrily spins over northern New England this weekend.
Lingering upper troffing will contribute to a somewhat slow
recovery from the chilly wx. Moisture lingers long enough for a
chance of showers Fri evening in eastern upper MI. And cloud
cover will be slow to diminish, as the low levels remain
somewhat soupy. That is likely to limit frost potential Fri
night, at least. But Saturday looks more cloudy than not, and
max temps will still be stuck in the 50s. There could be a
diurnal shower or two Sat afternoon. There will be a diurnal
contribution to cloud cover on Saturday, so we should some
breaks form heading into Sat night. That looks like a better
chance for frost, and a mention will be added to the HWO.

Better temps appear likely for Sunday and beyond, finally,
nearer 60f for highs Sunday and into the 60s after that. A stray
diurnal shower is possible again Sunday afternoon. GFS/ECMWF
agree an on upper low being generated in the northern plains
early to mid week. If so, that would pump some warmer air into
at least the southern lakes by midweek. A general
frontogenetical pattern should also lead to increasing precip
chances by Tue into Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 732 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

Mainly VFR CIGs currently in place across northern Michigan are
expected to degrade over the next several hours as more expansive
cloud cover pivots overhead from northeast to southwest. Mainly IFR
CIGs are anticipated across northern Michigan by Friday morning,
with the exception of the far southwest CWA near MBL which is
expected to remain MVFR.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ348-
     349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...DJC