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FXUS63 KAPX 051826
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
226 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and isolated thunder chances increase Sunday afternoon
- Several days of unsettled and damp weather early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 159 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes begins to
slide east tonight, allowing increasing amounts of high
cloudiness to push into the area in advance of a weak upstream
trough and associated surface cold front. Went a little cooler
than NBM guidance in the typically colder locations - mixing in
some regional Canadian guidance. Lows generally in the mid 40s
to mid 50s. A weak cold front makes a run at the Great Lakes on
Friday, gradually outrunning the better moisture/forcing as it
pushes east. A small chance of a shower over parts of eastern
upper in the afternoon, mainly west of M-123. Over northern
lower, a hint of mid level instability on forecast soundings but
the moisture profile is anemic. Can`t completely rule out an
isolated shower over the higher terrain or along an inland
penetrating lake breeze boundary but most areas will be dry.
More clouds on Friday with highs generally in the 70s (cooler
near the lakeshores with lake breezes).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 159 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Weak troughing in the 500mb height fields across the Great Lakes
heading into the weekend with a much stronger upper low eventually
carving out a large trough over the Great Lakes by early next week.
A weak mid level shortwave slides north of the area Friday night as
a surface cold front largely washes out across the area. Little in
the way of forcing/moisture to support much in the way of
precipitation with this feature (best chances of precipitation over
eastern upper), with increased cloudiness the most likely
sensible weather concern. After a quiet Saturday weatherwise
(possibly outside of some smoke once again), things begin to
change on Sunday as 500mb heights fall in response to a
deepening upper low digging into the upper Midwest. This will
set the stage for several days of coolish, unsettled weather as
the unseasonably strong upper low takes up residence near the
Great Lakes. It may take until Wednesday to bring improving
conditions to the area as the upper feature weakens and pushes
east.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 124 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

High pressure in control leading to generally light/variable winds
and some afternoon cumulus (bases 5-7kft) thru afternoon. Onshore
lake breezes to continue, esp at TVC, MBL, APN...fading after sunset
along with cloud cover. Light offshore flow tonight...perhaps some
patchy fog? Have tempo 4-5SM BR for this idea overnight, esp
CIU/PLN/MBL, but not as confident in fog tonight compared to last
night. Otherwise...VFR cigs through the rest of the taf period with
increasing mid/high clouds (bases 7+kft late tonight into Fri
AM).

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ016>018-
     020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...FEF