357
FXUS63 KAPX 092010
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
410 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Showers with embedded thunderstorms continue to track across
Northern Michigan this evening.

-Chances of precip at times continue through the midweek followed by
seasonably cool temperatures beyond Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 407 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

A large-scale 500mb low pressure system over central Hudson Bay will
continue to pivot embedded waves of energy across the Great Lakes
Region for the next few days. Current shortwave troughing pivoting
across mid/southern Michigan will deliver showers and thunderstorms
across the lower peninsula. Stronger forcing and instability remain
to our south, embedded convection combined with favorable deep
moisture profiles could produce some embedded heavy rainfall through
this evening.

The surface-level boundary will continue to progress toward the east
coast, but lingering low-level moisture will keep chances of light
precipitation this Sunday. Midlevel flow begins to turn somewhat
more zonal for the Great Lakes Region beyond the midweek as
precipitation chances remain rather limited. Aforementioned large-
scale closed low to the north continues to influence the
Midwest as H8 temperatures drop around 10 degrees Celsius.
Surface temperatures slightly below normal Thursday through next
weekend are expected, with highs remaining in the low 70s for
most locations.

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Well-advertised showers and storms currently over Lake
Michigan continue to make their way toward central and southern
Michigan. The more ideal synoptic forcing remains to our south as
strong low-level jet dynamics iterate with ideal instability while
steady stratiform rainfall occupies most of northern lower this
evening. While the majority of areas along and south of the M-32
corridor can expect only a few hundredths to a quarter inch, model
soundings with tall skinny CAPE, PWATs approaching 2 inches and deep
moist profiles could produce heavy convection that could result in
localized areas with much higher amounts through this evening.

Monday and Tuesday: Lingering low-level moisture combined with weak
cyclonic flow to the north will keep low chances of precipitation
across the Great Lakes Region this Monday and Tuesday. Monday will
be mostly dry as most convection remains to our south, but expect
one or two showers near the Saginaw Bay Region. Better chances of
scattered showers remain on Tuesday as additional low-level
shortwaves support afternoon convection. Conditions will be similar
to Monday where the majority of the region will remain mostly sunny
with highs in the low 80s, but a few localized areas will likely
observe short lived convective driven showers.

Wednesday through Sunday Outlook: Midlevel heights lowering behind
these shortwaves will usher in a somewhat cooler air mass with dry
Canadian air occupying the Great Lakes Region. H8 temperatures near
10 degrees will support highs in the low to mid 70s. Expect mostly
dry and pleasant weather supported by surface high pressure into
next weekend. Nighttime lows will drop into the upper 40s to low 50s
across interior northern lower and eastern upper.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Largely VFR through the rest of today and into early tonight.
Showers and perhaps some thunder possible particularly MBL /
TVC, but likely not prevailing. Low cloud builds in later
tonight, with IFR (MBL, PLN, CIU) and MVFR (TVC, APN) prevailing
later tonight into Monday morning, with cloud bases rising
through late morning, returning to VFR across the board by
afternoon. SW winds today turn NW Monday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...HAD