250
FXUS63 KAPX 050822
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
322 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow tonight into Thursday

- Breezy with lake effect snow Thursday night into Friday

- Potentially more accumulating widespread snow later this
  weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 322 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

Pattern/synopsis: High pressure will be moving quickly ese-ward
across central/northern lower MI this morning. Warm advection
develops and strengthens behind the high. A more effective
moisture tap arrives tonight.

Forecast: A few flurries are seen in nw lower MI, off of Lake
MI. Somewhat more vigorous lake snow is impacting central/
northern Chippewa Co, where a wnw fetch continues to hang on.
Small fluffy accums are occurring, and will persist this
morning. Then 1000-850mb winds into eastern upper MI weaken and
back, helping lake snows finally diminish up there.

SSE low-level flow expands across northern MI late today/
tonight. A pair of weak but fast-moving shortwaves eject from
the northern plains. This will contribute to the initial
development of 1 or 2 warm-advection wings of better moisture
and eventual precip. Some disagreement as to the latitudinal
positioning of these wings. Most recent near-term model trends
suggest one wings develops over far northern lower MI toward
midnight (then lifting northward), with another showing up in
central lower MI a couple hours later. That eventually ushers in
a somewhat better surge of moisture toward Thursday morning.

Pops will gradually increase and expand tonight. Likely pops
eventually arrives in the west, central, and north. Only parts
of ne lower MI stay chancy. QPF is somewhat higher north than
south, but is in all areas 0.10" or less. This results in snow
amounts thru sunrise of around an inch across much of the area;
slightly above in eastern upper, slightly below in northern
lower MI (especially ne lower).

Max temps today rebound into the mid 20s. Lows tonight mostly in
the teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 322 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

At the start of the period, synoptic snowfall from low pressure
impacting the Great Lakes Region will transition to lake effect snow
showers late Thursday into Friday. Southeast winds will turn west-
northwest through the day Thursday and accelerate as pressure
gradients tighten. Gusts 30-35+ mph look likely as stronger winds
mix down to the surface. In combination with falling snow, gusty
winds introduce a blowing/drifting snow hazard along with the
potential for rapid drops in visibilities at times. The main area of
focus for continued accumulating snowfall will be across eastern
Upper where an inch or two every 6 hours looks favorable Thursday
into Friday with cooler air staying in place and lake effect snow
showers lingering. Higher heights look to build in late Friday into
Saturday giving way to another brief lull in activity before another
low pressure looks to track across the Ohio Valley region by the end
of the weekend into early next week. A good swath of moisture looks
to be associated with this feature, but guidance is struggling with
the track of the aformentioned low pressure and where its associated
moisture will go-- stay tuned for specific details. At the start of
next week, longwave troughing looks to keep the pattern active with
lake effect snow showers possible, especially across eastern Upper.

Temperatures will largely stay in the 20s for the period, with the
exception of Thursday where daytime highs are forecasted to reach
the low 30s as warm air advects into the Great Lakes. By mid-next
week, temperatures look to possibly drop to the teens in response to
aformentioned troughing advecting cooler air into the Northwoods.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1045 PM EST Tue Feb 4 2025

Large area of cold Canadian high pressure will continue to
gradually build into the Great Lakes region overnight...and
will then shift east of Michigan on Wednesday. Scattered light
lake effect snow showers will continue to fall across our
snowbelt areas overnight into Wednesday morning...with
prevailing low VFR/MVFR conditions expected. We will see a
brief break in the action Wednesday afternoon and evening...
before chances of snow again increase later Wednesday night into
Thursday as an upstream warm front begin to lift toward the
Western Great Lakes.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...MLR