608
FXUS63 KAPX 042329
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
729 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated shower/storm possible into this evening.

- Hot and humid conditions on Saturday.

- Next round of showers/storms returns Saturday evening into Sunday.

- Cooler temperatures heading into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 402 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Height rises will continue to spread across the Great Lakes through
tonight as ridging slides overhead. A warm front draped from
northwest to southeast will also continue mixing north across the
area this afternoon and evening as warm, moist advection increases
with time. Surface high pressure will build east of the region as
aforementioned ridging departs and troughing encroaches on the Great
Lakes from the west on Saturday.

Forecast Details:

While tonight is expected to stay dry for the vast majority of
northern Michigan through tonight for holiday festivities, the
potential for an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out. Cu
has bubbled up across interior areas, especially along and west of I-
75 south of the aforementioned warm front where dewpoints have rose
into the mid to upper 60s. Despite this, meager instability and
broad subsidence aloft will work against potential shower/storm
development. Otherwise, mild temperatures will remain in place
overnight with southwest low-level winds providing continued
warm, moist flow keeping temperatures in the upper 60s and low
70s into Saturday morning. Winds will increase through the day,
gusting to 20- 30 mph at times through the afternoon as
temperatures quickly warm -- making Saturday the hottest day of
the holiday weekend. Highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s are in
store for areas south of the bridge, with slightly cooler highs
expected across the eastern U.P.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 402 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Positive-tilt troughing and associated surface low will work across
the Great Lakes Saturday night and Sunday, eventually departing east
Sunday night into Monday. Weak surface high pressure looks to
temporarily settle in before additional troughing slides overhead in
the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe, perhaps remaining overhead through
Thursday. Surface high pressure centered near Hudson and James Bays
looks to nose down into the Great Lakes through the second half of
the week.

Forecast Details:

The next round of showers and storms returns to northern Michigan
Saturday evening into Sunday. A cold front swinging across the Upper
Midwest will initiate this activity earlier in the day, gradually
working its way east towards the area with time. While a strong
storm or two cannot be ruled out, severe storms appear unlikely at
this time. Storms will be encountering an increasingly hostile
environment for support with eastward extent Saturday evening as
instability wanes. Chances for showers and storms look to continue
at times through Sunday afternoon as this front works across
northern Michigan, eventually moving out later Sunday. After hot
weather on Saturday, temperatures will cool back close to average
for the beginning of July with highs in the upper 70s and to mid 80s
on the horizon for next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 727 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

VFR conditions through the taf period, with just some passing
high clouds at times tonight giving way to some relatively high
based cumulus on Saturday. Light winds tonight become southwest
and get a bit gusty on Saturday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to midnight EDT
     Saturday night for LHZ345-346.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to midnight EDT
     Saturday night for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...DJC
AVIATION...MSB