692
FXUS63 KAPX 200334
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1134 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Minimal weather concerns for Easter Sunday.

- Rainy and breezy conditions later Sunday night into Monday.

- Above normal temperatures Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Not significant changes needed to the forecast. Building high
pressure will result in clear to partly cloudy skies across the
Northwoods tonight. Seasonably cool conditions, with good to
excellent radiational cooling helping drop temperatures into the
20s by early Sunday morning across most interior areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 357 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Short wave trough moving into the upper Lakes this afternoon...part
of a larger positive tilt trough stretching from Hudson Bay
southwest into Arizona.  Decent pressure gradient across Michigan
between low pressure over eastern Canada and a 1023mb surface high
over Nebraska/Iowa/western Minnesota.  Mainly cloudy skies across
northern Michigan this afternoon with some thin spots over parts of
eastern Upper and the surrounding Great Lakes.  Broken area of
rain/snow showers over western Upper spreading southeast into
northern Lake Michigan.

Northern branch short wave trough swings through northern portions
of the forecast area this evening as high pressure builds in from
the west.  Strong height rises (>80m/12h) and short wave ridging
follows for Sunday...as slow moving southern branch short wave
induces cyclogenesis over the southern Plains that tracks into
eastern Kansas/western Missouri by Sunday evening.

Minimal weather concerns for Easter Sunday: Synoptically quiescent
end to the weekend expected before things become more active for the
start of the new work week.  Expect cloud cover to eventually thin
out with loss of heating though guidance is pretty bullish on this
happening early and suspect it may take a bit longer.  Will continue
to watch showers coming out of western Upper and see if we end up
with a little bit of this activity reaching the area around Grand
Traverse Bay.  May see some fog develop overnight but Sunday should
start mainly sunny with clouds moving back in from the southwest
during the afternoon.  Rain chances may reach the M-55 corridor by
late in the day but the bulk of the precipitation will arrive Sunday
evening. &&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 357 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Low pressure currently near the Four Corners region will track
northeast over the next couple of days, reaching the western Great
Lakes Monday. This system will spread showers and embedded thunder
into the region later Sunday night on into Monday evening. Rainfall
amounts are expected to range from close to an inch across eastern
upper to around a quarter of an inch near Saginaw Bay. Weak
disturbances moving through a nearly zonal flow aloft will then lead
to shower chances mid and late week. Not expecting widespread or
long duration rains but there will be at least a chance for showers
every day next week with the exception of Tuesday. Cooler
temperatures are expected Tuesday followed by warmer temperatuers
Wednesday into Thursday (highs ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s)
then slightly cooler Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1132 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Still expecting a period of IFR producing fog/mist at KCIU early
this morning, with these IFR conditions quickly mixing out to
VFR shortly after sunrise. VFR conditions expected elsewhere,
with mostly clear skies to start giving way to an increasing
high and mid level cloud deck. May see a few light showers
develop this evening at KTVC and KMBL. Winds become southeast
today, remaining southeast and becoming a bit more gusty this
evening.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...MSB