675
FXUS63 KAPX 011702
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
102 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather with seasonable temperatures through the
  weekend.

- Varying degrees of Canadian wildfire smoke to impact the area
  the next few days.

- Potential shower/ storm chances next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Surface high pressure overhead will continue to support dry and
quiet conditions across northern Michigan today. Skies will be
mostly sunny, though filtered at times by Canadian Wildfire
smoke aloft. Compared to previous days, smoke thickness looks to
ease through much of the day, with a more noticeable haze
returning from north to south this evening. The Michigan
Department of Environmental Quality has extended the Air Quality
Advisory through Saturday due to these elevated particulate
levels.

Afternoon high temperatures will reach the mid to upper 70s
with generally light northerly winds. Winds will become
variable/ calm tonight under mostly clear skies, setting the
stage for another cool night with lows dipping into the upper
40s to low 50s, especially interior locations. Patchy fog may
try to develop late tonight into early Saturday morning, but any
development would be limited due to dry air in place.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Dry conditions continue into the weekend with temperatures
gradually warming. Highs Saturday will climb into the upper 70s
to low 80s, and into the low 80s for Sunday. Overnight lows will
generally fall into the 50s, with some cooler pockets possible
for inland locations. Thicker wildfire smoke is expected to
drift back into the region Saturday, likely leading to more
filtered sunshine and hazy conditions, with reduced surface
visibilities at times possible.

Heading into next week, the pattern becomes a bit more
unsettled. A weakening upper-level ridge and disturbances
tracking through the region could bring chances for showers/
storms midweek. However, a relatively weak pattern in place, and
a potential southeast component to surface winds, look to limit
precipitation development all together. That said, higher
chances for showers/ storms at the end of the period into the
weekend seem more likely-- stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 102 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Robust area of surface high pressure will remain dominant over the
forecast period, leading to VFR dominant CIGs the rest of today and
into tonight. Favorable conditions for lake breeze development will
lead to localized wind shifts. Some Canadian wildfire smoke overhead
will lead to a touch of HZ across the board, but should not be thick
enough to reduce VSBYs below VFR. Will have to watch MBL for some FG
/ BR potential later tonight, but any of this will scour out rather
quickly Saturday morning as the surface high continues to lead to
VFR prevailing.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...HAD