118
FXUS63 KAPX 041004
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
604 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler with scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms today.

- Seasonable temperatures into the weekend with an occasional
  shower/storm chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

A cooler and rainy day is ahead as a slow- moving cold front
continues to progress southeastward through the Northwoods early
this morning, supporting scattered showers and embedded
thunderstorms. Coverage has been somewhat limited overnight, but
the latest trends support redevelopment along and ahead of the
boundary through the morning hours, especially across northeast
Lower. Instability looks to remain modest, but deep layer shear
is supportive of loosely organized updrafts, therefore, some
stronger embedded storms could produce brief gusty winds.
Through the day, the aformentioned front will settle into
southeast Lower Michigan, with showers and storms gradually
shifting south and east through the afternoon. Behind the
boundary, drier and slightly cooler air filters in, leading to a
gradual decrease in coverage and intensity of precipitation--
However, lingering low-level moisture and weak instability could
still allow for a few additional late afternoon showers, mainly
across northeast Lower and near the Saginaw Bay region before
activity fully diminishes this evening.

Temperatures today will be seasonably mild across most areas,
though slightly cooler behind the front. Daytime highs range
from the upper 60s to low 70s across the region with the warmest
temperatures anticipated near the Saginaw Bay area. As high
pressure builds in from the northwest tonight, skies will begin
to clear across much of the area, with cooler overnight lows in
the mid 40s to low 50s expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

A brief period of quiet weather takes hold tonight through
Friday as surface high pressure settles over the western Great
Lakes. This will bring mostly sunny skies, light winds, and a
notably cooler airmass, with afternoon highs holding in the mid
to upper 70s and overnight lows dipping into the 40s/ 50s
through the work week-- possibly even approaching the upper 30s
in some of the typical interior cold spots for tonight.

By Friday night into Saturday, attention turns to an
approaching mid- level shortwave, which could introduce low-end
shower chances. However, current trends suggest that much of the
area should remain dry during this period. A more robust wave
is expected to arrive late in the weekend into early next week,
bringing higher chances for showers and potential thunderstorms.
This system looks to lead a more unsettled pattern, with
periodic showers and seasonable temperatures continuing into
Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 604 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Widespread rain will continue to increase in coverage across
northern Michigan early this morning as a cold front drops across
the region. IFR/LIFR CIGs have also spread into many areas,
including CIU, PLN, TVC, and MBL. IFR CIGs are expected to work into
APN in the next few hours. Drops to MVFR/IFR VSBYs are also expected
in association with these showers. Rain chances will begin to end
from northwest to southeast later this morning and afternoon,
leaving VFR conditions in place through the remainder of the
issuance period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ016-017-
     020-021-025>027-031-086>088-095>099.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LHZ348-
     349.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...DJC