086
FXUS63 KAPX 082308
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
708 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread temps at or below freezing tonight

- Good chance for showers Friday

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Pattern/synopsis: Surface high pressure is centered over
northern WI and western upper MI. The high moves overhead
tonight, then off to the east beginning Thursday.

Forecast: Band of somewhat elevated low-level moisture extends
from w central lower MI, to north of Superior. There is a lake
contribution, and up over s central Superior, a few sprinkles or
weak rain showers. Our low-level flow is becoming increasingly
anticyclonic, which has hurt shower coverage compared to earlier
today. Cloud cover decreases heading into tonight, due to this
building high pressure, and also with eventual loss of diurnal
heating. Winds will decouple (our main obstacle to radiational
cooling last night). And we are starting the day cooler than
yesterday. So we should end up quite a bit colder by late
tonight. Lots of middle 20s in the interior cold spots, maybe
isolated colder spots. Lower to mid 30s common on the
coastlines.

A freeze warning has been posted for all of the eastern upper
and northern lower MI mainland. A frost advisory was issued for
the island zones (Beaver and Mackinac).

Return flow gradually gets going on Thursday. By then, leftover
moisture band will have shifted east to Lake Huron. Some lake
effect clouds will linger at times near the ne lower MI coast.
Cloud cover will otherwise be very limited. Temps will rebound,
somewhat warmer than today, with highs near 60f to the lower
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Though return flow will be increasing Thu night, especially in
the west and north, s central and se sections should be able to
decouple for a time. Min temps will be colder near HTL/Mio/W
Branch/Gladwin than elsewhere. With low-mid 30s progged, frost
will remain a potential issue.

An upper trof now over the northern Canadian Rockies will dig
toward the Great Lakes and amplify. By Friday evening, we will
have a closed low pretty much overhead. This will keep our
weekend cooler and more unsettled than earlier hoped for. The
best chance for rain showers will be Friday and early Friday
night, as the upper system moves in. But a chance for showers
will linger into Saturday evening in eastern areas.

Finally, by Mon-Tue, shortwave ridging gets pumped up into the
Great Lakes. Temps should rebound to at or above normal values.
We will also start to increase moisture levels as well, and
precip chances will return.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 707 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Other than perhaps some early morning MVFR to IFR producing
fog/mist at KMBL, expecting VFR conditions to dominate under
mostly clear/sunny skies. Light winds through the period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
     MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095-096-099.
     Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
     MIZ097-098.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...MSB