411
FXUS63 KAPX 170940
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
540 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much cooler with more showers today into tonight.

- Quiet and dry weather through the first half of the week with
  fire weather concerns this Monday. Otherwise precip chances
  return later Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

All attention early this morning directed at deep and vertically
stacked low pressure working east across northern Wisconsin/western
upper Michigan. System attendant cold front in the process of
sweeping across the Northwoods, drumming up some shower with
embedded thunderstorms in the process. Some gusty winds and small
hail earlier with some of this activity, but nothing too noteworthy.

Upstream low pressure will continue to work steadily east directly
across our area today, reaching vicinity New England Sunday morning.
This will bring much cooler and occassionally damp weather to the
Great Lakes through tonight.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature trends and addressing shower evolution through tonight.

Details:

Big story today will be the arrival of much cooler temperatures as
cold air advection intensifies on backside of passing low. Will
definitely feel more like April then the middle of May (especially
after the recent very warm temperatures), with highs today mostly
ranging from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Southwest to west winds
will steadily increase as well today, adding a bit more chill to the
air. Pockets of enhanced moisture and forcing wrapping around parent
low...along with some weak diurnal support...will result in
scattered mostly light showers at times today. Vertical moisture
profiles begin to thin with time tonight as system departs to our
east. May see some lingering light showers/areas of drizzle within a
still relatively moisture rich low level environment and upslope
enhancement via gusty northwest winds. Cooling trend continues, with
lows tonight down into the lower and middle 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Midlevel pattern begins to shift at the start of the long term from
active weather to a more dry pattern through the first half of the
week. Surface high pressure will build this Sunday and Monday.
Pressure graident force winds from the departing/downstream low will
pull a chilly dry air mass from the north. Temperatures this Sunday
remain much cooler than normal for mid May with highs remaining in
the 50s for most locations across the CWA. Monday remains pretty
much the same except subsidence aloft will begin to really dry out
conditions and resulting in very low RHs. Fire weather remains a
concern as efficient mixing in the low levels could keep RHs well
below critical thresholds. Luckily; winds remain calm and only
gusting up to 15-20mph which keeps us out of headlines for now, but
elevated fire weather conditions are still expected even with these
early spring-like temps.

Closed mid-level low pressure currently over the Pacific Northwest
will begin to advect across the country and stalling out over the
Upper Great Lakes this Wednesday through the rest of the week. This
disheveled set up will remain disorganized but with enough energy
and moisture to deliver rounds of scattered showers. Not a lot of
QPF this system with most showers only having enough water to wet
pavement, but deary and cool conditions will finish off the week
making the second half of May feeling more like April for Northern
Michigan.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 532 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

Widespread MVFR to IFR producing low clouds, mist, and showers
expected across all taf locations today. Some slow improvement
tonight as showers dissipate. West to southwest winds become
gusty today, with winds veering northwest and remaining gusty
tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...MSB