315
FXUS63 KAPX 061008
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
608 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Dry through Monday with warm days and cool nights.

-Increasing humidity with shower and thunderstorm chances returning
Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.

-Increasingly windy Tuesday and especially Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1257 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Pattern / Forecast Synopsis:

Retrograding closed low pressure within a longwave troughing regime
over Atlantic Canada has forced a large area of Canadian high
pressure over the upper Great Lakes as a stout 500mb ridge axis
folds overhead from the west. Result is a dry airmass over head
that, owing to the stagnant nature of the pattern the next few days,
will lead to continuity of abnormally warm (highs 73 to 85 through
midweek) but still seasonable daytime highs to linger. Minimal
sensible weather anticipated across the region owing to the
influences of aforementioned surface high pressure. Drier air across
the region will allow for quality diurnal temperature swings... with
overnight lows likely dipping well into the 40s across the interior
cold spots once again tonight, perhaps mid 50s along the more marine
influenced coastal regions.

Meanwhile, longwave troughing over the Pacific NW will lead to
another shortwave crashing ashore in that region, cresting the 500mb
ridge over the center part of the country. This wave will be quite
juiced as it ejects into the Dakotas / Canadian Prairies, with
surface cyclogenesis response (likely sub 1000mb) and occlusion
manifesting by the time it gets to northern Ontario. SW return flow
ahead of the system will lead to increasing moisture / dewpoints
across the area into Tuesday as the system`s associated occluded /
cold frontal boundary is forced into the Great Lakes region later
Tuesday into Wednesday. Considering potential moisture influences
from eastern Pacific Hurricane Marie within this system, no surprise
guidance PWAT values continue showcasing a spike in the +3.0 to +3.5
sigma range, representing a high-end statistically significant
anomaly compared to climatological norms. As is always the case...
this moisture must coincide with best lift and instability within
the atmospheric profile to generate appreciable rainfall on a
widespread scale... otherwise the bane of my existence materializes,
and we turn obnoxiously humid for absolutely no good reason, and
little to nothing happens when some of the variables fail to align.

At this juncture, current models prog the passage of the boundary in
the Tuesday evening - Wednesday night timeframe. Certainly a lot may
change between now and then... but potential for scattered
torrential rainfall rate outbursts is slowly creeping up. In laymans
terms, that was a lot of meteorological jargon just to say "the next
shower and thunder chances build from NW to SE through the late
afternoon Tuesday through Wednesday morning... with some potential
for heavy rainfall and to a lesser extent, severe storms". As such,
may need to see how much of a hydrologic impact this has considering
recent rainfalls in portions of NW lower, and portions of the region
still contending with high soil moisture content from what has
statistically been the wettest year to date in several areas.

One other caveat to add to this... continuing the theme from the
previous forecaster`s thoughts... this system will come with a
pretty well-pinched pressure gradient between the broad, deepening
surface low to our NW and the surface high to our east. Result will
be quite the uptick in SW winds on Tuesday, flipping more westerly
in the dry slot behind the front. Most efficient mixing is
anticipated within aforementioned dry slot, with winds likely
gusting well over 30mph Wednesday, probably higher in the Straits
and NW lower. Not looking like any land-based wind headlines in
order for this, but certainly marine related headlines are all but
guaranteed starting Tuesday.

Following the passage of the frontal boundary through our neck of
the woods, anticipation is that it stalls to our south owing to
zonal flow building into the region as the ridge flattens from the
wave. Result will be cooler weather building into the region
Thursday through the end of the forecast period, but it doesn`t look
like deeper moisture will entirely scour out, so it looks like there
may be an element of unsettled-ness that may fester as well,
particularly as we head into the weekend. Certainly not looking like
any washouts and plenty of dry time... just not completely dry.
Should be noted that daytime highs moderate from a range of low 60s
to 75 Thursday to 70 to 80 by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 607 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Any fog/mist will burn off quickly near sunrise this morning,
leaving behind VFR conditions under mostly sunny skies. VFR
condtions expected to continue tonight with just some passing
higher level clouds at times. Light winds, with local afternoon
lake breeze development.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HAD
AVIATION...MSB