907
FXUS63 KAPX 191848
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
248 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm daytime temperatures and elevated fire danger
  each afternoon through Tuesday.

- Rain chances return Tuesday night/Wednesday with cooler/more
  seasonable temperatures mid-late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Pattern Forecast: Upper level flow transitions to more zonal
over northern MI during the short term period as a trailing
frontal passage moves through tonight. Breezy winds will
diminish some after sunset, but should remain slightly elevated
as the shallow boundary passes. This should keep overnight low
temperatures in the 40s for most areas. Sunday, skies will be
partly cloudy which should still let plenty of sunshine through
to warm surface temperatures into the 70s. Winds flip back to
the south-southwest and will see more uniformity in gusts up to
20 to 25 mph over northern lower. As humidity levels will not be
as low as the past few days, min RH values will still dip into
the 30s. Another afternoon of elevated fire danger is expected
Sunday.

Forecast Details: Best chances for precipitation reside over
the eastern U.P. tonight. It will be difficult to find a report
that reaches a quarter of an inch for rainfall, as continental
moisture will have a tough time saturating this dry air in the
lower levels. Northern lower will likely just see clouds and
virga tonight. As far as elevated fire concerns tomorrow, the
lack in rainfall will keep things dry. However some continental
moisture will try to saturate some of the lower atmosphere, so
min RH values rise a little Sunday afternoon. At the same time,
wind gusts become a little more consistent and uniform Sunday
afternoon which keeps elevated fire concerns going.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Pattern Forecast: Low amplitude mid-level ridging is expected to
encompass the Great Lakes Sunday night through Tuesday with
continued well-above normal temperatures and elevated fire danger.
By late Tuesday night, focus transitions to an incoming northern
stream wave set to cross the region midweek. Attendant low pressure
cruising by to our north will drag a cold front across the area with
increased rain chances and a return to cooler/more seasonable
temperatures.

Forecast Details: Little in the way of sensible weather through the
first half of the long-term forecast period. High temps Monday
expected to be some 20+ degrees above normal...perhaps into the low
80s across downsloping areas of northeast lower and near TVC. Lots
of 70s elsewhere. Not quite as warm Tuesday, but still well above
normal temperatures with highs into the low 70s. A late day increase
in high clouds with shower chances eventually increasing overnight
into Wednesday morning. Latest guidance trends continue to be less
impressive with potential QPF amounts, so really not anticipating
much in the way of D1-D2 drought conditions across the forecast area.
Some potential for scattered lake-induced showers continues through
Wednesday night before the core of coldest air retreats back to the
northeast. Early day highs in the 50s-60s on Wednesday bottom out on
Thursday with highs stuck in the 40s -- certainly more typical for
late October.

With respect to the continued warmth through the early week time
frame, elevated fire danger is likely to continue each afternoon
given dry fuels, low RHs and occasionally breezy southwest
winds.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

VFR through the period for all terminals. a FROPA brings VCSH
chances to eastern upper terminals from 03Z through 08Z. Skies
begin SKC - FEW250 and will fill in to SCT-BKN150 after 00Z.
Winds generally SW/S at 10-15kts with gusts up to 15 to 20kts
through 03Z. Winds will likely remain elevated overnight, but
should diminish some. Gusty winds being near the end of the
period for Sunday afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ341-342.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ344.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LMZ345-
     346.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...ELD