222
FXUS63 KAPX 272152
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
452 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High-impact lake effect snow bands continue into Friday.
Additional snowfall totals as high as 12-18 inches in parts of
Kalkaska, Crawford, and Roscommon counties under the heaviest band.

- Another system could bring several inches of snow back to Michigan
Saturday night into Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 452 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Ridging over the western US...with troughing over the east. Cold air
funneling south out of Canada (-12C at 850mb sneaking down into the
Upper MS Valley) in the wake of a broad upper low swirling over
Ontario/Quebec, south of James Bay. Occluded surface low attendant
to this over eastern Canada...with theta-e advection around the
north side of the low back into the Upper Great Lakes. PV niblet
swirling back around through eastern Lake Superior into the EUP
attm...with that theta-e advection supplying synoptic moisture to
the already primed lakes...and winds generally veering a little more
north of northwest in its wake across northern Lake Superior into
Ontario. To our south...punch of PV wrapping some of that cold air
aloft around the backside of the system aiding in synoptic upward
motion across the southern half of the forecast area...while
aforementioned EUP PV aiding in some synoptic forcing across the
northern half of the forecast area into the Tip of the Mitt, keeping
areas north of M32 somewhat active, though not necessarily super
focused as far as lake effect is concerned. More focused band has
been largely from CVX to as far southeast as National City/Tawas
City. Weak stability through about 600mb and deep moisture through
the column aided by something of a Lake Superior connection on NW
flow, including in the DGZ where some of the better omegas are
currently pegging... thus, not surprised we`ve gotten reports of 12,
15, even 20 inches of snow across areas from Lakes of the North down
into Frederic and east of Grayling thus far today (2pm).

Expect the EUP PV to continue its trek southward through the
afternoon...resulting in winds veering from a little west of NW to a
little more north of NW through the early overnight hours...and
ultimately think the intense band will eventually shift a little
more westward into Kalkaska county later this afternoon into
tonight. Snowfall totals may end up a little more broad across the
Tip of the Mitt region than earlier expectations, noting the upward
forcing from that PV max spreading reflectivity a little more
broadly up that way attm. Worst conditions should be this
afternoon...between now and 0z, though some potential for precip to
become organized into bands again this evening as the sun goes
down...which suggest the heavier snow will persist at least through
the first half of the night. A second PV slipping in from Wisconsin
after 6z should back winds to more WNW again...which should shift
the band yet again tonight. While low-level forcing may start to
fade tonight...think we will still have some reasonable snowfall
around through 12z, until better warm advection aloft begins to slip
in.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 452 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

Friday...expect lake effect will continue, though winds will start
to back more to the west as heights rise through the day...and
deeper moisture pulls away with the upper low finally departing.
Think we will still see intense lake effect bands, not entirely
dissimilar to today...though conditions won`t be quite as favorable
as today, particularly with the wind shifts likely spreading the joy
around a bit more than today. Winds diminish Friday night, but this
could set up the potential for some land-breeze/mesoscale-driven
lake effect going into Saturday morning.

Saturday-Sunday...Apparent synoptic snowmaker on the way...Rising
heights/warm advection should limit lake effect initially (not to
mention we should largely be under the influence of southerly
flow)... but think that same warm advection could lead to seeder-
feeder processes and jump start things a bit sooner. Expect winds to
become southeasterly with time going into Saturday night ahead of
another system deepening as it approaches us...again with the
negative tilt shortwave troughs! This system, however, has more
synoptic potential for us, as signals point toward the 700mb low
crossing from somewhere over the IA/WI border northeastward into
central Lower Michigan by the daytime hours Sunday, leaving us in a
favorable position for deformation axis snows. Will expect some lake
influences to contribute as well, though exact track/strength of low
still a bit unclear as to how easterly the winds will be and how
much of an inland influence this will have on the Lake Huron coast.
Behind the system later Sunday, will look for a return to lake
effect, though it appears synoptic moisture will pull away fairly
quick this time. Perhaps one saving grace is that absolute moisture
(pwats) does not appear as significant as this past system for
us...though we will have a good tap off the Gulf...but snowfall
probabilities are still looking rather concerning, with latest
probabilistic guidance showing moderate-high confidence in at least
4-6 inches by Sunday evening, if not more. Think we will need to
watch this one very closely going forward.

Monday-Thursday...We should get on the backside of the system Sunday
night into Monday, resulting in a return to lake effect, though this
system should have less synoptic moisture to work with. Potential
for things to briefly quiet down Monday...before another shortwave
trough crosses the Midwest Monday night into Tuesday. This system
currently appears positively tilted and doesn`t have as much of a
surface response in our area (phew) though it should have some
impacts on lake effect, given potential for another round of cold
advection aloft. Currently looks like we turn more troughy across
the eastern US later next week...suggesting we will be colder, and
this will likely keep the lake machine going.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1256 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

MVFR CIG`s will continue to occupy all TAF sites through the
majority of the TAF period with SHSN periodically dropping
CIG`s to IFR through tonight. Continued SN and BLSN will keep
VSBY`s mostly between 3-6SM, but any higher bands of intensity
will drop condtions below 2 miles. Winds and wind gust slowly
lighten up overnight through Friday along with snowfall
intensity. Flight condtions are expected to slowly improve this
Friday with KTVC and KMBL likely returning to VFR Friday
afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for MIZ016>018-
     024-088.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for MIZ020-025-
     031.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Friday for MIZ021>023-
     027>029-033>035-086-087-095-096-099.
     Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for MIZ026-
     032.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for LHZ345>349.
     Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Friday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
     Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...SJC