655
FXUS63 KAPX 031818
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
218 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated shower/storm possible on Independence Day; otherwise,
  turning warmer and more humid through Saturday.

- Next appreciable rain and thunder chances return Saturday
  night - Sunday.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Closed upper-level low pressure now sits
over Quebec with amplified troughing situated downstream over the
eastern seaboard. Heights aloft in the process of rising locally in
response to ridging upstream. That ridge axis to become centered
overhead late Friday before attention turns to incoming shortwave
troughing and associated area of low pressure passing by to our
north Saturday night/Sunday. Stretched out frontal boundary
emanating from that system will drive increased shower/storm chances
for the latter half of the weekend. More zonal flow expected to
prevail early next week with surface high pressure sagging in from
the north. Low confidence heading through the middle and latter
parts of next week with current trends supporting occasional
shower/storm chances.

Forecast Details: Little in the way of sensible weather this
afternoon with just some shallow cu development, primarily near
Saginaw Bay. Some hazy/smoky skies as well owing to Canadian
wildfires well to our northwest. Mainly clear skies tonight with
light/calm winds. Lows ranging from the upper 40s in the coolest
spots and through the 50s over the majority of the forecast area.

Ridging alluded to above continues to build across the western Great
Lakes on Friday with increasing heat/humidity locally as last
night`s stalled frontal boundary downstate shifts north as a warm
front. High temps climbing into the 80s area-wide (upper 80s most
likely in downsloping locales on the heels of increasing south-
southwest winds). Low chances do exist for an afternoon/early
evening pop-up shower or storm -- primarily away from the lakeshores
in northern lower. Expecting coverage to be very low, if anything at
all, but not low enough to exclude the mention of, especially given
the possibility to impact (briefly) any holiday festivities.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Day 2-3 (Friday night - Sunday): A hot/humid day expected Saturday.
50th percentile high temperature probabilities feature highs in the
low-upper 90s with 90th percentile climbing into the low 100s across
parts of northern lower. Even 10th percentile in the low 90s for
most areas.  The deterministic forecast (closer to that 50th %)
still has highs within a handful of degrees of record at a few of
northern MI climate sites (GLR/TVC/PLN/APN). Dew points in the 60s
to low 70s certainly giving an oppressive feel by northern MI
standards with potential for heat indices to exceed 100 F at times.

By Saturday night, mid-level wave and associated area of low
pressure are expected to be trekking across the northern tier of the
country. This should provide the region`s best shot at more numerous
showers and storms by late Saturday night into Sunday. Crude look at
severe parameters through this time frame suggests perhaps a low end
severe weather threat, highly dependent on frontal timing. If
frontal timing winds up being later on Sunday, severe chances would
climb. Worth noting SPC`s Day 3 convective outlook clips parts of
Mackinac/Chippewa counties in a Marginal Risk for Saturday night.

Day 4-5 (Monday - Tuesday): Passage of the late weekend system
should provide some relief to weekend heat/humidity as high pressure
settles in to start next week. Primarily dry conditions expected
Monday/Monday night with the envelope of solutions widening Tuesday
and beyond as several mid-level perturbations trek across the
region. However, worth noting that longer range ensemble means
generally favor dry conditions continuing through Tuesday as well.

Day 6-7 (Wednesday- Thursday): Occasional showers/storms
appears more likely mid-late week given a generally more active
pattern and better potential for more potent/deeper wave(s) to
dive southeast out of Canada into the nation`s midsection/Great
Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

VFR conditions through the period. Winds generally light with a
lake breeze this afternoon. Skies mostly SKC with some sites
seeing FEW-SCT150. Winds diminish to VRB05kts after 00z.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...ELD