957
FXUS63 KAPX 092325
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
725 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and an isolated thunderstorm continue this afternoon.

- Areas of fog, locally dense, tonight.

- Hot and humid Wednesday - Thursday with a couple of rounds of showers/storms
  possible, bringing renewed chances for locally heavy rain and
  strong to severe storms.

- Trending cooler Friday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Longwave ridging noted over the eastern
half of NOAM this afternoon with an embedded shortwave trough
nearing the crest of that ridge over northern MI. Attendant ~1012mb
sfc low pressure situated near southern Lake Michigan. Increased
moisture return in advance of this system helping to drive
shower/isolated storm production, locally heavy in spots, across the
forecast today. However, this wave exits stage right this evening,
bringing an end to wet weather chances, at least temporarily.

Mild/moist airmass continues to propel into northern MI tonight on
the heels of this wave, with increasing likelihood for areas of fog,
dense in spots. Meanwhile, troughing digs across the Intermountain
West, aiding to set the stage for hot/humid weather Wednesday and
Thursday across much of northern MI. Several waves of showers/storms
possible mid-late week as troughing gradually shifts across the
nation`s midsection, eventually into the Great Lakes late in the
work week. Broad troughing set to follow this weekend into at least
early next week, with a return to cooler conditions.

Forecast Details: Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue this
afternoon, largely diminishing toward/near sunset as best forcing
shifts off to the east. Some locally heavy rain and low end flooding
threat remains possible, especially for those that see repeated
heavier showers. Primary concern tonight likely revolves around
potential for dense fog and/or drizzle with pockets of significantly
reduced visibility, especially after midnight through the Wednesday
morning commute time.

Heat/humidity build Wednesday. Early day clouds should give way to
at least partly sunny skies for the afternoon with high temperatures
favored in the mid-upper 80s area-wide. Best potential for lower 90
degree readings across sections of northeast lower. By mid-late
afternoon, given dew points in the mid-60s to near 70 degrees, heat
indices likely to top 90 degrees across much of the southern half of
the forecast area. Focus later Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night revolves around thunderstorm potential. Latest trends favor a
healthy instability gradient developing across northern lower by
late afternoon with MLCAPE values progged to range from 2,000+ J/kg
across southwestern areas to perhaps a couple hundred J/kg across
far northeast lower. While much of what occurs locally will likely
hinge on upstream development across WI and eastern MN and potential
propagation eastward, the potential exists for repeated rounds of at
least scattered convection as early as late afternoon/early evening
and into the overnight hours. Primary threats will be locally heavy
rain/localized flooding if repeated downpours/training storms
materialize, along with damaging winds and a low chance for a
tornado. All this lines up fairly well with SPC`s latest day 2
severe weather outlook and WPC`s excessive rain outlook.

Any lingering convective activity later Wednesday night should be
east of the forecast area by Thursday morning with midday/afternoon
sun aiding in another hot/humid Thursday afternoon. Similar
temperatures favored with the highest probabilities for 90+ degree
readings across downsloping northeast lower. By late in the day,
focus turns to upstream cold front and expected convection out ahead
across parts of WI/IA/IL. This activity is expected to make a run
toward lower MI late in the day/Thursday night with additional
chances for locally heavy rain, and severe thunderstorms given
sufficient instability and ample deep layer shear expected to be in
place pre-fropa. Again, lots of uncertainties with regards to
timing, coverage and placement of strongest storms, but potential is
certainty there for another round of impactful weather.

Temperatures cool Friday into the upcoming weekend with generally
drier conditions expected to prevail.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 725 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Varying non-VFR flight categories this evening trend firmly IFR
to LIFR tonight as stubborn BR and FG prevail, along with SHRA,
namely at PlN and APN. CIGs improve into the morning, which
should trend mainly MVFR. Another disturbance intrudes, which
may lead to an initial batch of SHRA and / or TSRA, primarily
across the Lake Michigan adjacent TAF sites. The disturbance
moves overhead toward the very end of the forecast period, which
has the potential to generate a large complex of TSRA,
particularly at TVC and MBL, which will likely leave its impacts
extended into the next forecast period. Winds light and variable
tonight, trending westerly into Wednesday, turning south to
southeast in the afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for LHZ345>349.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for LSZ321.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJG
AVIATION...HAD