401
FXUS63 KAPX 291958
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
358 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and slight chances for storms late tonight into Monday
morning.

- Additional scattered showers and storms for northeast lower and
eastern upper during the day Monday.

- Rain-free weather is store for most of the upcoming week after
  Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 358 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Ridging will continue to slide east of the region tonight as
troughing digs over the northern Great Plains. Said troughing will
amplify with time on Monday as it slides over the Upper Midwest,
eventually working overhead Monday night. At the surface, the broad
parent cyclone will slowly pivot across James Bay and over parts of
Quebec through the period. An attendant weak cold front looks to
swing across northern Michigan during the day Monday.

Forecast Details:

Showers from this morning have diminished, leaving a remnant outflow
boundary that snakes from around Alpena southwest across the area to
around Manistee. Further upstream, this outflow has become the focus
for severe thunderstorm development across central Wisconsin. This
outflow will be the near term focus of the forecast. Current
confidence is that additional showers and thunderstorms will not
develop across the area this evening. However, non-zero chances for
storms exist this evening across northeast lower -- particularly
along the aforementioned outflow boundary. Belief is that lack of
substantial enough near-surface convergence to overcompensate dry
low levels/high LCLs and little forcing aloft will prevent CI at
this time.

Looking into tonight, aforementioned storms across Wisconsin will
gradually work eastward toward the CWA through an increasingly
hostile environment for support -- similarly to last night. Current
belief is this activity will wash up on the shores of northwest
lower after midnight and linger into Monday morning. Slight chances
for thunder will exist with this, although confidence is low.

Expectation for the daytime Monday is that the combination of
outflow from morning storms and the diffuse cold front working
across the area will likely focus scattered showers and storms
across the southeast CWA, with chances beginning late morning/early
afternoon as the airmass destabilizes along/ahead of the boundary. A
few strong storms cannot be ruled out given MLCAPE ~1,000 J/kg, but
lack of deep-layer shear should make organization difficult for any
storms that form and help cap any severe storm potential. Locally
heavy downpours will be possible. Additional showers and storms will
be possible across the eastern U.P. as well. It should be noted that
this is a marked change from previous forecasts that mentioned heavy
rainfall potential across the Tip of the Mitt as expected focus for
showers/storms on Monday has shifted further southeast. Shower
chances will diminish Monday night into Tuesday.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 358 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Heights will rise across the Great Lakes on Tuesday as troughing
departs to our east. Subsidence on the backside of said troughing
will build surface high pressure from the Midwest into northern
Michigan through the middle of the week, leading to expected rain-
free weather Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain chances return to the area
heading into the second half of the week as troughing looks to dig
overhead in the Wednesday night/Thursday timeframe. While still
several days away, keeping mention of thunderstorms during the
second half of the week out of the forecast for now as instability
appears limited. After troughing departs late this upcoming week,
high pressure and rain-free weather look to settle in heading into
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 127 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Mainly VFR conditions with perhaps some MVFR mixed in at times
for the period. Showers with isolated storm chances arrive
around midnight tonight and progress west to east. Some
visibilities may be reduced in any heavier showers/ storms,
especailly CIU. Shower/ storm confidence in coverage is low,
with a weakening trend noticed in guidance. Sustained southwest
winds 5-10 knots with occasional gusts 15-20 knots will decrease
through the evening, becoming light overnight. Winds gain a
more westerly component (WSW), towards the end of the period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...DJC
AVIATION...NSC