719
FXUS63 KAPX 031902
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
302 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures cool to the 20s tonight, teens possible for the
  colder prone areas.

- Light rain likely with a chance for a light wintry mix
  overnight Friday into Saturday morning.

- Colder Sunday into the first half of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Shortwave troughing will continue to exit the region as high
pressure builds across the Midwest. Tight pressure gradients
between the two aforementioned features have resulted in gusty
winds being observed across northern Michigan today, with gusts
ranging from 35 to 40+ mph. As the aforementioned high pressure
builds, winds and clouds will slacken/decrease through the
evening before becoming weak/light for tonight with partly to
mostly clear skies. As a result, patchy dense fog will also be
possible tonight/ early Friday morning. Effective radiational
cooling will lead to temperatures dropping to the 20s, and
possibly even to the teens in colder prone areas... Assuming
patchy dense fog does not develop and hinder radiational
cooling. Friday looks to be a quiet day overall with light winds
expected, no precipitation, mostly sunny skies, and
temperatures in the 50s across northern Lower and upper 40s
across the eastern U.P. Cloud coverage looks to fill in Friday
evening ahead of the next precipitation chances beginning Friday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

The weather continues to look up for the most part which should
allow power crews to make steady progress in the restoration of
electricity over the next few days. However, colder
temperatures arrive Sunday and especially early next week when
snow chances return.

Low pressure moving by to our south continues to trend a bit
farther northward. It now looks like a majority of northern
lower will receive some precipitation. The biggest question is
what form that will fall in. Most spots look like it will be as
a cold rain. However, the higher terrain may see a mix of light
rain, freezing rain and snow as per model soundings which show
thermal profiles hugging the 0C isotherm from the surface all
the way up to nearly 500 mb. Could see slick spots on area
roadways developing late Friday night into early Saturday.

The remainder of Saturday into Sunday morning looks
precipitation free along with seasonable temperatures.

A digging trough then likely spins up surface low pressure
across the region Sunday night into Monday as a shot of arctic
air drops down from the north. It`s still a few days out but
wouldn`t be surprised if there was some snow accumulations on
the order of a couple to perhaps locally as much as a few
inches.

Upper level troughing/chilly air remain across the region
leading to brisk conditions Tuesday. Can`t rule out a few
passing flurries.

Ridging aloft then begins to build in from the west Wednesday
into Thursday leading to milder temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 132 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

VFR conditions expected to persist through the issuance period,
with a slightly slower response in improvement across the
eastern U.P. CIGs at CIU are expected to remain MVFR this
afternoon, but VFR conditions are anticipated across all
northern Michigan TAF sites by this evening. West-southwest
sustained winds between 15-25 kts with gusts 35-45 kts will
continue through the afternoon before becoming light and turning
northwest tonight. Patchy fog could be a possibility late
tonight/ early Friday morning.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MIZ016>018-088-
     096>099.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345>347.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ348-
     349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ346.
     Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ323-341-342-
     344-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ322.
     Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...NSC