180
FXUS63 KAPX 051036
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
636 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Strong winds build today through tonight leading to a high swim
risk and rip current potential for Lake Michigan zones.

-Continued warmth and winds lead to fire danger concerns today.

-Chances of rainfall return Monday.

-Cooler air from the north returns average temperatures to the
 Great Lakes region this week with overnight frost potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 336 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Pattern Synopsis...Midlevel pattern set up remains similar to
yesterday as longwave ridging slowly shifts eastward today. Strong
midlevel flow to the west of Michigan will begin to support
increasing surface winds across the region.

Forecast Details...

Today...Midlevel subsidence will deliver a final day of well above
average temperatures. Mostly clear skies (besides afternoon cumulus
field development) will push daytime highs in the low to mid 80s
across the majority of the region. Main focus remains on the
pressure graident force winds increasing this afternoon. Southwest
flow gusting into the 20s will increase wave and rip current action
over Lake Michigan. Highest swim risk locations will be the northern
shore of Michigan as the long fetch lined parallel with the wind
direction will generate 3-5+ waves. Besides the marine concern...
strong southerly winds, near critical threshold RH values, and dry
fall vegetation will lead to elevated fire weather concerns this
afternoon.

Tonight... Winds breifly settle this evening from
afternoon low level mixing coming to a halt, but the previously
mentioned jet maxima shifting eastward will keep low level winds
strong during the overnight hours across the northwoods. Strongest
winds and wind gusts will remain west of I-75 in the 20-25kt range.
The warm air mass will keep overnight temperatures well above normal
ahead of the frontal passage. Lows are expected to remain in the low
60s which ironically is the climatologically normal values for highs
across the region this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 336 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Monday and Tuesday...Midlevel troughing currently over the Northwest
Territories will progress to Hudson Bay this Monday while developing
surface low pressure. An attached cold front spanned southward will
track across the Great Lakes region delivering some beneficial
rainfall to the CWA. Guidance continues to hint at relatively low
amounts of QPF. Blended probabilities still depict highest
probabilities (40-60%) of a quarter inch or less, but localized
afternoon convection could boost rainfall totals up to 0.50". The
majority of showers will begin early Monday morning and taper off
overnight Monday. Subsidence aloft begins to dry conditions during
the day Tuesday as a cool Canadian air mass builds from the north,
returning daytime highs back to near climatological normals for
October.

Wednesday and Thursday... Upstream midlevel shortwave ridging
progresses eastward midweek this week. Subsidence support surface
high pressure to return cool and quiet weather to the region.
Northerly air mass will keep daytime highs around 60 degrees. Some
concerns for late season frost development remains possible as clear
skies and radiational cooling process drop overnight lows into the
30s. Interior northern lower will see the coldest temperatures as
guidance depicts high probabilities (70-80%) of lows dropping to or
below 32 degrees.

Friday and Saturday...Long range guidance depicts split midlevel
flow to develop across the central CONUS. Low probs of precip remain
in the extended forecast as an embedded height disturbance tracks
across the midwest. Too early to advertise timing or impacts, but
some light showers embedded within overall quiet weather remains
possible at the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 633 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

VFR conditions continue through the period. Mostly sunny skies
today gives way to slowly increasing clouds tonight. Will even
likely see some light showers begin to impact KCIU later
tonight. Southwest to south winds do become gusty today,
especially closer to Lake Michigan. Strong low level jet
develops this evening, spreading wind shear across most of the
area tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ025-031-
     095.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
     Monday for LHZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT
     Monday for LMZ323-342-344>346.
     Gale Watch from 6 PM EDT this evening through late tonight for
     LMZ341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...MSB