229
FXUS63 KAPX 170921
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
521 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- More smoke today, with rather rapid improvement expected tonight.
Smoke may return later Saturday and Sunday

- Low risk for a few severe thunderstorms tonight, with gusty winds
and marginally severe size hail the primary concerns.

- Additional shower/storm chances early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Smoke...and more smoke. Direct connection to southern
Canada/northern Minnesota originated smoke plume continues, with
widespread visibility restrictions continuing across the Northwoods
at this early hour. Broad west/northwest flow aloft within
ridge/trough interface helping drive this smoke across the Great
Lakes. Well defined embedded shortwave within this flow beginning
its southeast descent into western Manitoba, with its weak surface
reflection running well out ahead of it into the northern Plains and
southern Manitoba. Smoke plume driven differential heating
boundary/quasi-stationary surface boundary running southeast from
this surface low into Western Wisconsin and down into Illinois, with
the northern portion of this front starting to show westward advance
as the parent surface low does the same.

Manitoba wave will continue to amplify as it dives into southern
Ontario and Lake Superior tonight, exiting stage right as we head
through the day Saturday. Attendant deep layer forcing from
shortwave itself and that approaching surface low/frontal features
will help drive an increasing shower and thunderstorm threat across
the area later today into Saturday morning. Some good news however
as this system will give us least a temporary break from this
unhealthy smoke plume to at least start the weekend.

Additional waves within prevailing northwest flow aloft look to
bring additional rain chances heading into early next week.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Smoke trends and addressing severe thunderstorm potential later
today into tonight.

Details:

Big story for the daytime hours of today will remain the smoke, with
simple extrapolation and high res guidance plumes showing thick and
unhealthy levels of smoke centered across much of the area today.
Otherwise, may see a few showers make a run into the area this
afternoon as initial surge of deeper moisture advection pushes into
the western Great Lakes. Not expecting any widespread rain or severe
concern with this intial shower threat. Better chances for
showers/storms arrive tonight as forcing/low level jet dynamics and
deeper moisture becoming more aligned. Trends support an upstream
convective complex(s) to make run into the area overnight,
especially across upper Michigan. Additional showers/storms likely
to form along veering low level jet and enhanced cold pool dynamics
as activity slides southeast with time. However, confidence on how
this all plays out remains low, especially with incredible
uncertainty in how deep smoke with interfere with upstream
convective development. Much of our area remains in marginal risk
wording for severe weather, highlighting gusty winds and marginally
severe size hail as the primary concern. Again, uncertainty is high,
so future updates to the forecast leaving the house early this
morning are more than anticipated. As mentioned, this system looks
to give us at least a temporary break in the smoke as deepest smoke
plume gets jettisoned off to our east tonight. Some additional smoke
looks to again filter south into our area later Saturday, although
current trends show this to be not nearly as robust.

Shower/storm threat looks to end rather quickly later Saturday
morning and afternoon as low pressure exits off to our east. High
pressure settles right overhead Saturday night and Sunday, resulting
in dry conditions and near seasonable temperatures to round out the
weekend. Next wave and perhaps rather vigorous cold front look to
arrive early next week, bringing additional shower/storm chances
along with them. Current trends support deep northwest flow overhead
within impressive northeast NOAM centered troughing much of next
week, keeping our temperatures a touch on the cool side of normal.
We shall see.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 520 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

More MVFR to IFR producing smoke across the taf locations this
morning. Gradual improvement as smoke begins to mix out later this
afternoon, and especially this evening. Focus then turns to
potential for some overnight showers and thunderstorms, especially
impacting KCIU and KPLN. May see some periods of vis restricting
heavy rain and brief gusty winds with any stronger storms.
Otherwise, light winds today into this evening, with southwest winds
becoming a bit gusty later tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Dense Smoke Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     LHZ345>349.
     Dense Smoke Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.
     Dense Smoke Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MSB
AVIATION...MSB