430
FXUS63 KAPX 222300
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
600 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow northern areas into this evening.

- Milder temperatures into the first half of next week.

- Mainly light mixed precipitation is expected Sunday night.
  Slick spots will likely develop after midnight across the
  area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 331 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

Pattern/synopsis: A series of fast-moving shortwaves are zipping
ese-ward across the northern lakes today. Light snow has
expanded into northern portions of this forecast area. This will
last into this evening, then head downstream. Quieter conditions
(not that this is busy) for overnight into Sunday.

Forecast: DPVA forcing and mid-level warm advection area the
forcing mechanisms for the developing light. Total snow this
afternoon and evening will be up to an inch, mainly in north
half of the forecast (far n central and ne lower MI, in
particular: PLN to APN). Quite a bit of cloud cover will linger;
a lower deck should be pretty solid into the start of the day
Sunday. That tries to thin out a bit Sunday as warmer 850mb air
works in. Will we see some expanding breaks (yesterday) or do
the clouds get trapped beneath a strengthening inversion? More
inclined to be pessimistic with cloud cover Sunday.

Lows tonight a little milder; upper teens to mid 20s. Highs
Sunday in the low-mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 331 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

Still expecting that warmup during the first half of next week.
Seasonably colder air is then anticipated late week into the first
half of next weekend. Along with the clash of airmasses, as is often
the case, there will be a few possible systems to keep track of. The
first one is a beefy (strong) Alberta Clipper moving by well north
of the region (across northern Ontario) Sunday night into early
Monday. Precipitation across northern Michigan associated with this
system is expected to be mainly light with the possible exception of
far northern Chippewa county. Warmer air advecting in ahead of the
low will make precipitation type a little tricky. Still expecting a
bit of light snow or mixed precipitation Sunday night perhaps ending
as drizzle or rain showers across northern lower early Monday (with
perhaps a light coating of snow and/or ice). Up to a couple of
inches of snow are possible across northern Chippewa county. The
main concern of any falling liquid or frozen precipitation is that
it normally doesn`t take much to lead to slippery spots on still
frozen ground/roadways. Gusty winds are also expected Sunday night
into Monday due to a tight pressure gradient in place. Occasional
mainly weak short waves moving through the flow will then bring a
few chances for light rain or snow showers during the work week
(best chances Monday night, Wednesday and Thursday, perhaps even
Friday). I realize that for planning purposes this doen`t really
help much but model guidance varies on the depth, track and timing
of these waves. Perhaps a stronger system next weekend with maybe
some LES and gusty winds behind it? It`s still way too early to pin
down any details on that one. Hopefully we`ll have more concise
information as we get a little closer but honestly it`s an
especially tough time of the year when we begin the slow transition
toward spring.

Temperatures are likely to surge well into the 30s to mid 40s
Monday. Highs generally in the 30s to low 40s for Tuesday through
Thursday. Seasonably colder Friday and Saturday with highs in the
mid 20s to low 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 600 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

A cold front will sweep thru Northern Michigan this evening...
producing a brief period of light snow across our TAF sites.
Cold front will push SE of our state overnight into Sunday...
with dry wx expected during this period. Prevailing conditions
will remain low VFR/MVFR for the next 24 hours...periodically
dropping to IFR within some of the more persistent areas of snow
this evening...mainly across Eastern Upper and far Northern
Lower Michigan. Surface winds will remain from the SW at around
10 kts tonight...becoming S/SE under 10 kts on Sunday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ323-
     344.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...MLR