456
FXUS63 KAPX 261913
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
313 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms tonight into Friday. A few strong storms and
heavy rainfall will be possible.

- Temperatures warm through the weekend.

- Additional shower/storm chances late Sunday into early next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Short-lived ridging will slide east of the Great Lakes tonight as a
relatively weak shortwave punches overhead. This feature will
provide sufficient support aloft for a surface cyclone ~1010mb to
trek across the region tonight and Friday. A warm front gradually
working north downstate will struggle to make it past the CWA border
this afternoon, eventually surging north across the area later
tonight into Friday as the aforementioned system tracks through.

Forecast Details:

An isolated strong storm will be possible along and south of M-55
later this afternoon/evening with the primary hazards being damaging
winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Otherwise, much more
widespread showers and storms will work across the area later
tonight through Friday morning. Mostly likely timing for storms will
be from midnight to 10 AM Friday, beginning and ending from west to
east across northern Michigan. A few strong storms can`t be ruled
out overnight with marginal elevated instability and shear in place,
but severe storms are not currently expected overnight into Friday
morning. The primary concern with showers and storms overnight will
be the potential for locally heavy rainfall. PWAT values around 1.6"
to 1.8" approach climatological daily max values, allowing for very
efficient rainfall with activity tonight. Rainfall amounts of 1-2"+
will be possible by Friday morning across the eastern U.P. and Tip
of the Mitt where most persistent showers and storms are
anticipated, with lesser amounts around 0.5-1" for areas further
south. While overnight activity should move east of the area by
noon, a few additional storms may pop up across northeast lower
during the afternoon. Otherwise, rain-free weather is expected
across northern Michigan through the remainder of the day.
Temperatures in the 70s and 80s are in store, with those near
Saginaw Bay potentially warming into the upper 80s during the
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Weak zonal flow looks to set up for the first half of the weekend,
contributing to a nebulous surface pattern across the the region.
Troughing will encroach on the Great Lakes heading into Monday,
providing forcing aloft to generate surface pressure falls along a
diffuse cold front that looks to gradually work across the region
during the first half of next week as the parent cyclone treks to
our north. Behind this, high pressure looks to build into much of
the Midwest through the remainder of the period.

Forecast Details:

Pleasant weather is in store for the Northwoods to kick off the
weekend with rain-free weather expected and highs in the 70s and low
80s under partly to mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will continue
to warm on Sunday as highs look to climb well into the 80s -- and
even approach 90 across interior areas. Chances for showers and
storms returns to the area late Sunday as the aforementioned front
works into the region. Given ample instability and at least some
deep-layer shear to work with, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled
out. Rain chances will continue at times through the first half of
the week with the middle of the week currently expected to be dry as
high pressure builds in.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 128 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Showers have largely diminished across the Northwoods with
cloudy skies expected to persist through the rest of today with
a continued mix of VFR to IFR conditions. Clouds will generally
increase again late tonight ahead of a developing area of
showers/ storms expected ~04Z through early Friday. Ceilings and
visibility look to lower to MVFR to IFR in heavier showers/
storms during that time. East winds will decrease through the
night and shift southwest Friday morning with occasional gusts
10-15 kts-- with the exception of areas near the tip of the Mitt
and north where occasional gusts 20-25 knots are possible
through tonight (PLN and CIU). Some low-level wind shear may
develop overnight into early Friday as stronger winds aloft move
into the region.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ017-
     018-024-030-036.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for LHZ345>347.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for LHZ348-349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for LMZ341-342.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...DJC
AVIATION...NSC