875
FXUS63 KAPX 140503
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
103 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry through the end of the week and seasonable to seasonably warm.

- Showers and thunderstorms this weekend across northern MI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Patchy fog will be possible tonight as temperatures cool to
saturation beneath a sfc high pressure to the north. This feature
slides to the east across Ontario into Thursday, shifting winds to
the east/northeast across portions of the area. This will keep
temperatures seasonable for most, mid 70s to low 80s. Coolest
conditions will be across the eastern UP and east of 75 due to the
marine influence. Meanwhile, above normal height anomalies bulding
overhead and subsequent subsidence will limit any precipitation
potential.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Patchy fog possible tonight:

Not much in the way of concerns through Thursday with mainly dry
conditions. Some patchy fog may appear tonight, likely not as
expansive as this previous night, but still a concern for some of
the river valleys, low spots, and areas that efficiently decouple.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Day 2 (Friday):

Heights continue to increase on Friday, with a shift to southerly
flow. Temperatures begin to increase as a result, with moisture
increase through the column heading into the overnight hours with
storms taking shape to the west.

Days 3-4 (Saturday - Sunday):

Ridging is centered across MO this weekend, with convectively
agitated energy riding around the ridge and moving into northern MI
mainly Saturday into Saturday night. Airmass will be characterized
by modest instability and shear, with the belt of more impressive
westerlies well to the north in Canada. Despite the better shear to
the north, there may be an opportunity for some stronger
thunderstorms as this feature aloft, and frontal boundary, work into
N MI. Couple pieces of guidance have some pockets of slightly better
shear to work with as well later Saturday. Lot of uncertainty
though, progged fcst soundings from the big three (GFS, CMC, ECM)
show varying degrees of instability, shear, and thunderstorm
evolution/timing. So, for now, think thunderstorms will be possible
on Saturday/Sat night with the potential for marginally strong to
severe storms if the correct timing comes to fruition. Thunderstorms
remain possible on Sunday as well, within a similarly unstable and
sheared environment.

Days 5-7 (Monday - Wednesday)

Little better signal for precip potential early next week with
ridging well to the west and northwest flow suggesting a
convectively agitated wave tries to move through N MI. Deterministic
guidance tries to bring MCS convection of some fashion into the
region as a result. Consequently, POPs are higher than yesterday for
Monday with ensemble guidance more bullish. Will still have to watch
this mesoscale driven setup in the coming days for shifts in the
potential cluster of showers/storms. High pressure builds in behind
this system with relatively cool and dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 102 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Patchy FG/BR development is expected across parts of northern
Michigan into this morning, most likely impacting the MBL/PLN/CIU
TAF sites with drops to MVFR/IFR VSBYs and potential LIFR CIGs for
brief periods. Any BR/FG is expected to dissipate quickly after
sunrise. Afterwards, VFR conditions are anticipated across all TAF
sites through the remainder of the issuance period. Light
north/northeast winds in place today will allow for lake breeze
formation to push inland from the lakeshores this afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...DJC