907
FXUS63 KAPX 211938
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
238 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Milder temperatures, especially Sunday into the first half of
  next week.

- Mixed precipitation is possible Sunday night into Monday
  morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 239 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025

Pattern/synopsis: Area of thicker high clouds is making inroads
into eastern upper MI. This is associated with a pretty vigorous
but moisture-starved shortwave. A brief push of somewhat cooler
air reaches Lk Superior behind this wave Sat morning. But high
pressure in the OH/TN Valleys will otherwise continue to
gradually pump warmer air toward northern MI.

Forecast: Models are struggling with the sunshine today; they
have been and will likely continue to be too cloudy. That said,
it will be generally cloudier than it`s been today. That starts
with the increasing mid-high clouds seen presently with a
clipper shortwave. It continues into Saturday, with mid clouds
building again as warm advection aloft increases. Precip chances
are pretty small, but perhaps the cooler air scraping by eastern
upper MI Saturday may activate shallow lake effect off of
Superior. Have overall reduced and shrunk pops on Saturday over
the inherited grids.

Lows tonight in the teens. Highs Saturday should be somewhat
hindered by clouds; mainly within a few degrees of 30f.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 239 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025

For those of you that have reached the too much snow and cold
fatigue stage of this winter there is some hope on the horizon. A
generous warmup and eventual thaw is likely over the next few days
but the actual extent of this is a bit muddled at this time.
Extended guidance varies on the breath of the warmup as well as the
details of possible disturbances moving through the flow.
Temperatures reaching or slightly exceeding the freezing mark are
still expected Sunday. There is still potential for a more
significant warmup to occur during the Monday to Wednesday time
frame when highs could reach well into the 30s to perhaps as warm as
the low and mid 40s. However, 21/12z guidance appears to be backing
off on the potential warmth, at least somewhat. Another shot of
arctic air could return high temperatures into the 20s and perhaps
even some upper teens by the end of next week.

As far as sensible weather is concerned it will be fairly quiet
through the weekend with the exception of a few passing snow
flurries from time to time (specifically Saturday night into Sunday
associated with warmer air aloft pushing into the region). An
Alberta Clipper system then brings the potential for a period of
light mixed precipitation Sunday night into early Monday. In most
spots this would likely start as snow but it could transition over
to a messy freezing drizzle/drizzle mix. Weak short waves moving
through the flow bring chances for a few rain or snow showers at any
point Monday night through Wednesday. A perhaps stronger Alberta
Clipper may lead to a period of accumulating snow later Wednesday
night into early Thursday. All these details will have to be sorted
out over the coming days. The long term portion of the forecast
could wrap up with that shot of arctic air to finish off the work
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025

A mix of MVFR and VFR cigs this afternoon, then VFR.

High pressure to our south will contribute to relatively dry
air in the region. Leftover lake effect clouds will provide MVFR
cigs at times into early this evening. Just VFR after that.

Light w winds will become sw later tonight, and somewhat gusty
of Saturday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for LHZ346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for LMZ323-
     344>346.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...JZ