263
FXUS63 KAPX 220646
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
246 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend through most of the work week. Hot and humid
Wednesday and Thursday with highs into the 90s

- A few rounds of showers and storms starting early Wednesday
  and lasting through Friday morning. Chances for scattered severe
  storms Wednesday and possibly Thursday.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

Current upper level ridging centered over the lower Mississippi River
with an axis extending northward towards the front range. Zonal flow
over the northern Rockies will initiate lee side troughing near WY
with a boundary stretching into the Dakotas today. Radar and
satellite show convection firing near a boundary (stationary
boundary this morning). The KMPX 00Z RAOB shows 1.89" Pwats making
it that far north already, indicating the deep moisture in place
over the northern plains. The upper ridge will shift north and
eastward today, increasing heights over northern MI. High
temperatures today will likely warm into the 80s for most locations.
Drier air near the surface will hang around through midday, but the
deep moisture to the west will creep in this afternoon. At this
time, guidance is in agreement that convection over MN/WI today will
take a more NE track over Lk Superior this evening and tonight. CAMs
are showing storms possibly missing eastern upper tonight. This is
likely due to guidance resolving an inverted trough over FL forcing
the upper high farther north than previous runs.

With influences of the surface high still around for some of today,
a lake breeze will likely form over both peninsulas this afternoon.
Winds will turn south later this evening and tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

South winds will strengthen with gusts up to 35 mph Wednesday as the
surface pressure gradient tightens from an approaching front (and
exiting sfc high), as well as 20 - 30 kt winds in the low levels
moving over head. Clusters of storms will likely be seen along a
SW/NE frontal boundary draped over southern  MI, northern WI, and
the Western U.P.. By Wednesday, steering flow will be more ideal for
tracking storms along the U.P. towards the eastern half. CAMs do
hint at convection over WI moving over northern lower
Wednesday afternoon. A quick look at model soundings, and most
locations should have no problem sustaining convection if
temperatures can warm into the low 90s. However, cloud cover
from possible storm/MCS activity upstream over WI could dampen
this environment.

A very likely scenario will for Wednesday is that clusters of storms
fire along the frontal boundary and move over eastern upper midday
Wednesday. A handful of storms will track across Lk MI Wednesday
afternoon and continue across northern lower Wednesday evening. Deep
moisture will allow for heavy rainfall with storms, but also
damaging wind gusts. Low LCL heights and around 15 to 25kts of
LL shear yield chances for a few tornados as well.

The temperatures forecast for Wednesday has a higher bust potential
due to possibility of widespread cloud cover. If sun can creep in,
high temperates will likely reach into the high 80s and 90s.
However, cloud cover could keep highs in the low to mid 80s. No
matter the temperature, the air will feel very humid.

A shallow upper wave will help to push the surface frontal boundary
through northern lower Thursday. Storms will be seen along this
boundary, with an environment that will likely be capable for
damaging wind gusts, heavy rain, and small hail. Temperatures
will have a chance to warm before the boundary moves through,
with afternoon highs reaching into the 90s for most locations.
Overnight lows early Thursday morning will feel very warm,
dipping into the high 60s and low 70s.

A quick dip in temperatures Friday post front., then a large dome of
high pressure returns to the central U.S. The ring of storms will
form around the high, and continue chances for showers every few
days through the end of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 105 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

VFR conditions through the period under just some passing high
and mid level clouds. Light winds with local lake breeze
development this afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...MSB