858
FXUS63 KAPX 121600
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1100 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Accumulating snow this afternoon thru tonight, highest
  amounts near Saginaw Bay and the Lake Huron shoreline.

- Accumulating lake effect snow for the northwest snowbelts Thursday
  into Thursday night.

- Widespread light to moderate snow Friday night.

- Lake effect snow and possible blowing snow Sunday into Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

Few changes to the current forecast. Expect widespread snow to
develop across northern Michigan this afternoon as the surface
low moves out of the mid Mississippi Valley and deeper
moisture/forcing arrive. Conditions will deteriorate as the
afternoon progresses, with visibilities dropping to 1-3 miles
(localized less than 1 mile) and roads become snow covered.
Current headlines look good and plan no changes at this time.

Widespread snowfall amounts of 3-5" by Thursday morning with
5-8" possible closer to Lake Huron between Alpena and Saginaw
Bay. Lesser amounts toward Sault Ste. Marie, with 1-3" possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 253 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

     Widespread accumulating snow this afternoon thru tonight...

Large area of strong arctic high pressure remains centered from the
Upper Midwest thru the Great Lakes into Western Quebec early this
morning...resulting in mainly clear skies across our CWA and very
cold temps. Meanwhile...two developing areas of low pressure are
poised to turn our relatively quiet weather into a rather active
next 24 hours.

Upper trough axis is digging into the lee side of the Rockies
attm...generating a weak surface reflection. Another relatively weak
area of low pressure continues to develop over the Lower Mississippi
Valley. Upper level trough will swing into the Plains today...with
the two weak surface lows phasing into one stronger low center over
the Ohio Valley by 00Z this evening. Surface system will then lift
northeastward into and thru the Eastern Great Lakes tonight.

Deep gulf moisture will surface northward ahead of this system and
will wrap around the north side of the low center...generating a
large area of widespread snow across all of Lower Michigan and
across Eastern Upper Michigan as well. Snowfall is expected to begin
this afternoon and continue thru tonight. East flow off of Lake
Huron will certainly provide lake enhancement for much of our SE CWA
from APN to Gladwin and Arenac counties. Expect up to 8 inches of
new snow across this area (previously under a watch) thru tonight...
with new snow amounts tapering to 4-6 inches across the rest of
Northern Lower Michigan and 3-5 inches across portions of far
Eastern Upper Michigan. Have upgraded all counties within the
previous watch to Winter Storm Warnings for this afternoon thru
tonight. Have issued Winter Storm Advisories for the rest of our
Northern Lower Michigan counties and as well as for portions of far
Eastern Upper Michigan based on expected new snow amounts outlined
above. Also expect some blowing/drifting snow...especially across NE
Lower Michigan with stronger east flow within this region.

After a very cold start to our day...high temps will peak in the
teens across Eastern Upper Michigan this afternoon and in the low to
mid 20s across Northern Lower Michigan. Low temps tonight will drop
into the single digits above zero across Eastern Upper Michigan and
into the teens across Northern Lower Michigan.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 253 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Active weather looks to continue through the long-term with
occasional snow chances over the next several days. Widespread snow
will transition to lake effect snow showers Thursday as winds turn
northwesterly. Expecting mainly light accumulations with this, with
generally 1-3" across the typical NW flow snowbelts. Heights begin
to build as a transient ridge builds in for Friday, giving a very
brief lull in activity before a low pressure looks to track towards
the area by Friday night/ Saturday. Moisture ejected from the west
looks to converge with moisture from the aforementioned low giving
way to a decent swath of moisture expected to track to the Great
Lakes Region this weekend. The main question will be where this
moisture/ low tracks. For now, widespread accumulations of light to
moderate snow are expected across the Northwoods with another round
of lake effect snow showers expected on the backside of the
aformentioned system. Northerly flow Sunday, looks to transition
northwest by Sunday afternoon/ night, leading to aformentioned lake
effect potential. Guidance continues to advertise a fairly tight
pressure gradient forming as well, which would produce breezy winds,
and the growing potential for blowing/ drifting snow and rapid drops
in visibilities. Temperatures will trend cooler overall as we head
into next week with daytime highs in the teens Sunday continuing
into mid-week. Monday looks to be the coldest, with daytime highs
struggling to reach the double digits and nighttime lows in the
negative single digits-- Certainly no end in sight to winter thus
far.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 600 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

Widespread accumulating snow will develop across all of Northern
Lower and Eastern Upper Michigan this afternoon and will
continue to impact our area thru much of tonight. VFR conditions
will deteriorate to MVFR and eventually IFR as this widespread
snow develops this afternoon. Surface winds will remain from the
east and strengthen to 10 to 20 kts with some higher gusts
possible this afternoon. Winds will then shift to the NE and
eventually north later tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for MIZ016>018-
     020>023-025>029-031>034-088-096-097-099.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Thursday for MIZ024-030-
     035-036-041-042.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LHZ345>347.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...MLR