447
FXUS63 KAPX 011022
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
622 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Largely rain free weather through the week`s end.

- Turning warmer and more humid for the start of the 4th of
  July holiday weekend.

- Next appreciable rain and thunder chances return Saturday into
  Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 216 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Longwave troughing lowly making its way out of the area to the north
and east. Surface cold frontal boundary moving into Ontario, with
just some weak perturbations passing through the region due to some
decayed upstream convection. Drier air intrusion well under way from
northwest to southeast, as dewpoints in the eastern Yoop have
dropped below 60. Any lingering sprinkles or showers should diminish
by daybreak. Postfrontal airmass should allow for plentiful mixing
today, with some diurnal cumulus bubbling later in the day. Still a
modest amount of diurnal instability across NE lower. On paper with
NW flow, will need to watch the Lake Huron shore south of Alpena for
a rogue afternoon shower, but guidance seems pessimistic toward this
idea. Will be a touch breezy with some 20mph gusts. Highs top out in
the 70s and 80s, with lows tonight in the range of 52 to 62.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 216 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Quick moving shortwave surges through the region Wednesday, which
will bring a frontal boundary through the region. Limited but non-
zero moisture with this frontal passage, coupled with ample daytime
heating supports a shower or storm chance late in the day into the
overnight, but certainly not looking like a washout. High pressure
builds into Friday, with ample ridging and return flow overhead,
should bring warmer and more humid conditions for Friday and
Saturday (highs anywhere from the upper 70s to lower 90s). Another
wave is set to pass through the region over the latter half of the
weekend, which should bring about a better chance for more
appreciable rain to the region... will have to see how this impacts
any Saturday night 4th of July festivities, but all in all, much of
the big holiday weekend looks dry aside from Saturday night into the
day Sunday. Cooler temperatures build to start next week in the wake
of the wave`s passage, with highs turning more seasonable in the 70s
to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 619 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Anticipating VFR conditions through the period, although some
brief low clouds could sneak into the region up by CIU. Current
thought is for any low clouds to be FEW-SCT this morning, and
through the day, becoming 040-060 due to diurnal CU development.
Otherwise, northwest winds will be mildly breezy(10G18-20KTs)
at times this afternoon, decreasing into the overnight hours.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...JLD