758
FXUS63 KAPX 310841
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
341 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light lake effect snow showers possible for some late this
  afternoon and evening, cold temperatures return tonight.

- Roller coaster ride of temperatures over the next several days.

- Light to perhaps moderate snow accumulations are possible Saturday
  night into Sunday.

- A stronger storm system is possible toward the middle of next
  week. Precipitation type is uncertain at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 339 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Low-amplitude longwave troughing draped across southern Canada will
slide across the far northern Great Lakes today as much stronger
southern stream troughing punches across much of the Mississippi
Valley. Forcing provided by this second trough aloft will continue
to support a cyclone that will trek across the Ohio Valley into the
Mid-Atlantic/New England today into tonight. Meanwhile, surface high
pressure will build from south-central Canada into the Great Lakes
by Saturday morning.

Forecast Details:

Light lake effect snow showers possible -- Quiet weather will
continue across northern Michigan through much of the period, giving
northern Michigan a break from recent snowfall to end the month.
While the aforementioned system will pass close to the region, all
associated precip is expected to remain south of the forecast area
at this time. The next chances for snow will come later this
afternoon and evening with possible light lake effect snow showers
for areas near Grand Traverse Bay, northeast lower, and eastern
upper Michigan with northerly low-level winds behind the system.
Sufficient low-level moisture in forecast soundings will be in place
for a brief time later today, potentially being enough to support
these snow showers. Any accumulations are expected to be limited to
0.5" or less, with little to no impact on travel this evening.
Otherwise, cold air spreading southward from Canada will drop
overnight temperatures well into the single digits across interior
northern lower, and single digits below zero for those north of the
bridge. Some portions of the eastern U.P. near Sault Ste. Marie
could see wind chills drop close to -20 F early Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 339 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

Welcome to February (starting Saturday). There is only another month
of meteorological winter to go! Of course that doesn`t usually mean
much up here in the great north where winter usually lags through
March and sometimes even into part of April. Regardless, more up and
down temperatures are expected to continue over the next several
days as arctic air likely remains across Canada with occasional
pieces of the cold air temporarily infiltrating the region. Extended
guidance is not in very good agreement over the pertinent details of
the forecast for next week. In the meantime, the Alberta Clipper
system later Saturday night into Sunday still looks on track for the
most part. However, QPF has been inconsistent at best so confidence
over exactly how much snow there will be remains a bit iffy. Warm
advection/isentropic upglide in advance of the Clipper is expected
to spread mainly light snow into the region later Saturday night
into Sunday morning. The best estimate of snow accumulations at this
time is in the 1 to 3 inch range (with possible locally higher
amounts across eastern upper). The snow could still end as a period
of light rain or drizzle Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening as we
briefly get into the warm sector of the system. The Clipper slides
by to our north Sunday night. The pattern then becomes rather
muddled after that with a baroclinic zone (battle ground between the
arctic air to the north and milder air to the south) likely setting
up across or just to the south of northern Michigan. Uncertainty
over exactly where this sets up will lead to general chance pops into
the first half of the work week (for mainly light snow or flurries).
A possible stronger system Wednesday night into Thursday may bring a
more significant amount of precipitation. The track of this possible
system will be very hard to ascertain this far out so precipitation
type will be tough to decipher. Stay tuned on this one as it could
end up being impactful. Temperatures will likely continue to
fluctuate from day to day but generally be within a few degrees
either side of normal so no big cool downs or warm ups are
anticipated in the long term portion of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2025

Moisture-starved cold front will drop thru Michigan overnight
into Friday. Overall dry weather is expected...but do expect
patchy fog and periods of MVFR/IFR vsbys overnight into Friday.
Low VFR will move into our region on Friday as well. Light/variable
surface winds overnight will become NE at around 10 kts Friday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...MLR