583
FXUS63 KAPX 052322
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
722 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and occasional thunderstorms through Saturday.

- Showers and thunderstorms possible early to mid next week.

- Heat and humidity build next week with 90s possible by late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Short wave upstream across the Upper Midwest this evening will
continue to swing southeast through the night. Building instability
and thunderstorm development to the west across the UP of MI and
vicinity will track southeast across the big Lake. Expect some
thunderstorm coverage possible across portions of the area tonight
as a result, most guidance showing a general weakening trend with
this activity. Still, its becoming increasingly likely a pretty
spatially encompassing line of showers and storms moves from
west/northwest to east through the region later tonight. Instability
is generally pretty low with modest shear in place, but the overall
storm mode and development life cycle of this convection suggests a
lack of a real severe threat. Consequently, NWS Gaylord`s area of
interest is only in general thunder via SPC`s outlook through
tonight. Locally moderate rainfall would be possible in this
scenario. Cannot rule out a few areas of fog over land given we
actually see decent rains, worth monitoring that and the convective
trends.

Nevertheless, short wave will continue to push southeast through
Saturday, with some showers and storms possible overnight regardless
of the activity moving out over the Lake. Isolated thunderstorms
will be possible during the afternoon hours Saturday, given the
building instabilty and potential low level convergence near Saginaw
Bay and vicinity. That being said, some guidance is quite low on
this potential. Currently, we are in general thunder for Saturday
mainly across northeast lower MI. By Sunday, heights build
aggressively, and so while slightly "cooler" during the first half
of the weekend, we quickly rebound the second half with drier
conditions.

Slow moving negatively tilted short wave moves northeast early to
mid next week. Sfc high pressure slides east across the Northeast,
resulting in southerly return flow and a surge of a rich PW airmass.
Consequently, showers and thunderstorms will be possible. Generally
weak flow aloft will limit severe potential, but subtleties will
need to be watched. Another surge of humidity is expected mid to
late week as well, with dewpoints flirting with 70 degrees while
temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Thus, heat risk
rises by late next week. Caveat to the forecast high temperatures
will certainly be the shower and thunderstorm coverage. There is
also plenty of energy digging into the Plains by the end of next
week as well that could thrown a curve ball in the forecast.
Regardless though, heat and humidity build through the end of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 713 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...Widespread IFR/LIFR Ceilings Developing...

Widespread IFR/LIFR ceilings will develop later this evening
and overnight as a cold front pushes across the area. A period
of showers and a few thunderstorms will also be likely with
frontal passage, along with areas of fog developing. Ceilings
will remain low until after sunrise Saturday, with gradual
improvement throughout the morning as drier air starts to scour
out the lower level moisture. Light and variable winds tonight,
becoming northwest on Saturday and increasing to 10 to 20kts at
times.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...JK