025
FXUS63 KAPX 242343
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
743 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake effect showers/isolated storms through Monday with
  waterspouts possible.
- Patchy frost potential Monday night and Tuesday night.
- Below normal temperatures continue throughout much of the
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Longwave trough continues to sharpen across the Great Lakes with
upper low anchored near James Bay.  Potent shortwave sliding south
through the northern Lakes currently is helping to usher in an
unseasonably cool airmass.  The most numerous shower/isolated storm
activity will be through early this evening, with a gradual
decrease in coverage later tonight with diminishing forcing in
the wake of the departing shortwave energy. PWAT`s near 0.90"
and locally heavy downpours remain a possibility with some areas
likely receiving greater than 0.50" of rain. Mean H9-H7 wind
directions wobble around a bit tonight, likely spreading out the
QPF associated with the transient lake effect showers. Likely a
downward trend in precipitation coverage on Monday as one
shortwave departs and a weak upstream wave slides in during the
afternoon. 850mb thermal trough overhead on Monday with H8
temperatures as cool as 4-5C. Overlake instability remains
robust but moisture profiles not quite as favorable. Despite
that, as we know, the models tend to end lake effect too quickly
on many occasions and at least scattered shower activity will
likely linger much of the day. Monday will be the coolest day
with some inland areas struggling into the lower 60s. Still
waterspout potential with lower EL`s offset by higher delta T`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

A couple of very chilly nights (by August standards) Monday night
and Tuesday night.  We may have some lingering lake effect cloud
issues Monday night. We also have high pressure positioned
southwest of our area, which is not an ideal position as it
could inhibit the boundary layer from fully decoupling. Despite
this, widespread 40s both nights with typically colder locations
likely dipping into the 30s. Patchy frost definitely a
possibility, especially Tuesday night with less cloud issues.

Outside of a few diurnal showers on Tuesday, generally quiet
weather for Tuesday and Wednesday. By Wednesday night, the next
upstream shortwave will dive into the Great Lakes bringing more
showers/storms. High pressure builds into the area to end the
week. This may provide at least a good weather start to the long
holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 732 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Times of MVFR/IFR cigs and vis through 12Z due to lingering VCSH
and/or BR. Terminals over eastern upper will see a brief LLJ of
up to 25 to 30 kts down to around 2 kft from 01Z thru 04Z. Not
in KCIU TAF due to surface winds generally around 10kts at that
time, leading to minor WS. VFR should return after 15Z Monday,
however some isolated VCSH could be seen over NW lower
terminals. Winds generally 5 to 10kts from the NW/N tonight.
Winds will strengthen and become gusty near end of the period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for LHZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Monday to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for
     LHZ346>348.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for LMZ341.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for
     LMZ323-342-344.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for LMZ345-346.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for
     LSZ321.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for LSZ322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...ELD