662
FXUS63 KAPX 090625
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
225 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to widespread showers with isolated embedded
  thunderstorms continue through the day today with heavy rain
  being the primary threat

- Areas of fog tonight

- Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms move over
  northern MI Wednesday through Friday, brining renewed chances
  for heavy rain, gusty outflow winds and hail

- Cooler temperatures and drier conditions this weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

An upper level short wave is just reaching northern MI this morning,
brining a deeply moist Gulf airmass with it. A cluster of showers
with a few lightning strikes embedded within is moving northward
over the central west coast of the L.P. this morning. Patchy fog
is being seen over parts of NW lower as well. The 00z KAPX RAOB
shows 1.27" PWATs (which was just the start of the deep
moisture advection) with a drier layer near the surface. By now,
the lower levels have become saturated, which points to
somewhat efficient warm rain processes from the sounding with
this extrapolation. Evidence of this is seen in intial rain
guage reports, with up to 0.5" per hour clocked at the Baldwin
RAWs site. Other sites around Manistee county have seen a
quarter of an inch per hour rates with this initial
precipitation. Showers/storms are moving, however some training
is possible over the central western coast of MI towards Grand
Traverse Bay through mid morning as the upper wave becomes more
negatively tilted over WI.

During this time, the lower level cyclone and upper short wave
will deepen, which will enhance forcing features and likely
result in more widespread light stratiform rain (especially with
the deep moisture that will be present) moving across northern
MI this morning and reaching the sunrise side by mid day.
Embedded scattered convection will be seen as well, as some
instability will exist (~500 SBCAPE), resulting in mostly
heavier rain and some lightning. Efficient warm rain processes
will continue as the warm cloud layer reaches up to 14 kft.
Widespread 50% or greater neighborhood probabilities of at least
half of an inch by midnight tonight, with pockets within that
area of similar probabilities for greater than 1". Low end
probabilities exist for greater than 2". Multiple rounds of rain
over the next 24 hours could align in an isolated spot or two to
produce this. Localized ponding of water and flooding in low
lying areas remain possible in these spots.

Surface dewpoints will be in the high 60s to low 70s with
temperatures in the high 70s to low 80s. It might not reach to the
levels of suppressing heat, however it will feel muggy and humid
outside today.

Tonight, a warm and wet airmass will move in on the heels of the
upper trough exiting. Confidence is growing for widespread fog under
this airmass, with non-zero chances for some light drizzle along the
coastal spots of Lk MI and in the higher hills. It will take
longer time to lift and scatter this fog/stratus Wednesday
morning. Due to the warm and wet airmass, widespread moderate
HeatRisk is forecasted for Wednesday afternoon south of the
bridge, however cloud cover will work to curb major heat
concerns. That is not to say it won`t feel hot, as temperatures
will likely still reach well into the 80s with Tds in the high
60s to low 70s.

In the upper levels, an upper closed low will move over the northern
Rockies Wednesday, which will generate a series of disturbances down
stream. The propagation downstream of these upper waves will largely
be dependent on convection over the northern plains. With that said,
intial CAM runs do somewhat align with the idea of convection
budding over WI and moving towards MI Wednesday evening/night.
Again, the placement of this convection depends on activity today.
Hot and humid air will continue into Thursday as the upper closed
low moves over the northern plains. Another wave of widespread
convection could reach into northern MI Thursday night into
Friday as the upper closed low finally progresses.

With the last two rounds of widespread convection overnight, slight
chances exist for severe storms. The main hazards at this time look
to be heavy rain and damaging winds from the strongest storms. Hail
could come into play near the end of the week if that round
materializes.

Temperatures cool to below normal for the weekend with drier weather
returning.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1159 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

VFR conditions gradually deteriorating through MVFR and IFR
through the day Tuesday.

SHRA and TSRA possible with temporary reductions in flight
categories possible through tonight at TVC and MBL. SHRA chances
increase at the other TAF sites around or just after daybreak
Tuesday. Temporary reductions in flight categories possible at
these sites as well in the event +RA or a rogue storm passes
over the TAF site. SHRA / TSRA coverage to reduces in the
afternoon, but lingering low level moisture will produce
plentiful BR and perhaps FG to close out the forecast period...
with largely MVFR to IFR conditions by Tuesday evening...
eventually deteriorating further to LIFR in most TAF sites
after 00z Wednesday, largely CIG driven.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ELD
AVIATION...HAD